Calling All Geeks: Lets do the maths on the Gerrymander
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Alright, people, it's time to get quantitative about September's elections. Exactly how many seats are we likely to get? What are the real, not hypish-effects of gerrymandering? What would happen if we got the same share of the vote in September we got in the regional elections in 2008? How many seats is that? And what if we did 5% better than we did back then? How about 10% better?
I don't know the answers to those questions, but I do now have the key tool you need to find them.
In this Excel worksheet, kindly contributed by Melenúo, you get a digest of all the district changes CNE pulled as part of their gerrymandering exercise this year, alongside results from previous elections in the 8 states (+DC) affected. Melenúo's first, rough approximation suggests that if the votes are distributed exactly as they were in 2009's referendum, chavismo would get 123 seats to our 42: that's 75% of the seats on the basis of 54% of the votes.
The caveat is that just eight of their seats are directly attributable to the 2010 gerymander: even with the 2005 districts, the government would've gotten 115 seats to our 50 (or 69.7% of the seats on the basis of 54% of the votes.) Thing is, the circuitos were already pretty aggressively gerrymandered, and morocha-shenanigans were already in place to magnify the seat-haul of the single largest group.
But to burrow deeper into the data what we really need is a bit of collaboration. So if this kind of thing is your idea of a fun Sunday morning, download the sheet and go at it.
Melenúo's approach focuses on just the seven states (plus Distrito Capital) where CNE reshuffled the circuitos this year. His little sheet needs a lot of work before it can be made the basis of a more comprehensive analysis.
In the spirit of open-source collaboration, I'm asking all qualified geeks to download it and have a go at it. We need a bit of a swarm here. You know who you are. Omar, buddy, set aside a bit of your Sunday for this. Mieres, man, you're not getting out of this one...Edgar, Jesus, Guido, Miguel, Tarazona...you know what you gotta do.
And if I left you out of that little list: here's your chance to earn your Geek-stripes.
[Big hat tip to CL, who set this whole thing up.]
Juan Cristobal
Francisco Toro
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It takes about 4-5 point spread for the opposition to win by 1
Quico
The work has been done, BEFORE the already predicted gerrymandering. It will take about 4-5 points spread, that is at least 4% more for the opposition to get a one seat majority. I wrote it in some of the articles that appear under the 2010 label (http://daniel-venezuela.blogspot.com/search/label/2010%20elections)
For a poll number cruncher like you I understand the appeal of an excel sheet (that I will use in the future to supplement my electoral analysis, thank you very much). But it remains that voting patterns, the mood of the moment, the way electoral centers are designed, the candidates, etc, are needed to make a real prediction and conditions right now do not exist to make even educated guesses, except on such obvious bastions as Baruta or some rural districts. Let's wait at least to see who will run and where before we get all exited.
However there is something certain: gerrymandering alone will not explain an eventual opposition defeat.
Gerrymandering Malpractice
What's weird about the Excel sheet is that it shows CNE isn't even that competent at Gerrymandering. They did it right in Caracas, Miranda and Carabobo, where they ghettoized the oppo vote into massive supermajority districts so they could pick off the rest. But in places like Táchira and Zulia they seem to have screwed it up: leaving a whole bunch of circuitos with tiny, exposed pro-government majorities.
My initial reaction is that they could have gone much further. It's sort of half-baked, the way they did it.
Population distribution/oppo distribution
I am not sure, I did not check the data for those states, but as far as I remember 1) there are oppos everywhere there and 2) Táchira's population is relatively spread across the state.
In Carabobo and to an extent Miranda the oppo is much more concentrated.
But Daniel is right.
Unfortunately, I don't see the oppo in my state doing real work. Salas and his people should be moving their ass out of Northern Valencia and spending most of the time in Libertador and Miguel Pena now, with some quality time in Guacara.
Instead, he will probably organize some flashy concerts in Miguel Penalver Park, go across central and northern Ave. Bolívar...and not cooperate with PJ and the others, unless they accept all the candidates Proyecto Venezuela wants.
I hope to be proven wrong.
No, the gerrymandering was
No, the gerrymandering was not that well done anyway. It seems that it was designed, at least in Libertador, to make sure that Silly Flowers got her seat back.
Also, I am all in favor of single seat districts so thus I cannot be upset at Maracaibo finally been split into individual seats. If anything where the gerrymandering shows its meanest intention is into the multiple seat districts: on a quick survey multiple seat districts tend to be retained, when not created, where chavismo thinks it rules.
Shameless what they did to San Diego municipality
Before it was part of San Diego-Guacara-San Joaquín-Diego Ibarra. As such and because Guacara is almost 50%-50%, we would have got there almost for sure a deputy. Instead, they joined San Diego to Northern Valencia-Naguanagua. Idiosyncratic reasons? Perhaps in as much as most San Diego people are mostly highly anti-chavista professionals, even if not rich. San Diego is a municipality divided by mountains from Valencia proper and more connected by other reasons to Guacara than to Valencia. That was absolutely shameless.
Then there is the proportion of seats. The newly created 99% antichaveista electoral district has 2/3 of the population of the new Southwestern district, but only one seat as opposed to 3 for the new Libertador-Southern-Valencia.
Valencia was cut through parishes. They just put Urdaneta, mostly antichavista, on the chavista site to dilute an antichavista group safely. Had Urdaneta parish be joined to the antichavista electoral district, the regime would have probaably had to give 2 deputies to that region, it is just too large.
(haven't read the details on when a new deputy is assigned)
PSF
I know that I risk sounding ignorant, maybe even stupid. However, I, who was born in Nicaragua of US citizens, who moved to the US after the 1972 earthquake, and who is desperate (?) to follow Nicaragua/Venezuela news: what the heck is a PSF? Also, are there any other acronyms/nicknames/whatever I need to know? I'm so sorry if I offend anyone here. I don't support Chávez AT ALL; what an asshole! At the same time, I came of age under Tacho Somoza, who was really not as bad as Daniel Ortega and compinches make him out to be.
Venezuelan Acronyms
PSF: Pendejos sin fronteras (idiots without borders). A rather derogatory term used by venezuelan opposition to describe all non-venezuelan/foreigners that openly support Chavez. The term was allegedly coined by Teodoro Petkoff, and it's inspired by the term Doctors without Borders.
PSUV: Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela. Chavez's political party.
PUS: Name sometimes used by the opposition to refer to the PSUV.
PDVSA: Petroleos de Venezuela, Sociedad Anonima. Venezuela's state oil company.
QUICO: Queremos un indio como Osvaldo. A term normally used to refer to a person who is quite primitive and agreeable at the same time.
JC: Jodanse Carajos. A term used by people who pretend to be women for a while, then finally reveal their true gender.
Acronyms and Terminology
NicaCat56,
About three years ago, I had to ask the same question. So, don't feel bad. Anon got some of the terms you will see here, but not all, by a long shot. When I first started, I had to do a lot of Googling to understand the Venezuelan historical and political references.
Muchas gracias, guys!
Thanks for the help. I especially appreciate the definitions of "Quico" and "JC" - jejejejeje!
PSF=Partido Socialista Francés
También. Teodoro is a very ironic guy.
I have linked this post,
I have linked this post, along with a general link and commentary on the usefulness of this very fine blog for tracking current events in Venezuela, from an entry I posted at StJacques Online this evening.
http://stjacquesonline.blogspot.com/2010/01/chavez-removes-mask-it-will-...
Such excellent work you are doing here. Keep it up!
StJacques
death by a thousand cuts...
Agreed with daniel D. Gerrymandering efforts by the administrator of elections is just another pellisco to kill the elephant.
Remember guys, public financing for elections was striped when chavismo took el mango del sarten 10 years ago. Anychange politicaly active citizens will make pledges to their political parties of choice openly without fearing consecuences from the state/goverment/regime?
Voter franchise database is corrupted to the marrow. Any chance the RE will get cleared up this year?
The E-vote platform is still a black box, regardless anything quico says.There is no trust in it. A rightfull administrator of elections would care about being beleivable by all parties, the current one does not.
The number of former inhabitants/citizens of the land now living abroad would account for a change in the distritos electorales to create an overseas circuit, like spain, and italy and probably other nations with relatevely lasrge diasporas. Nothing of the kind is being even considered. On the same point, how many expats can update their electoral status in consulates and embasies easily, its made very much uphill by design!
Venezuela's opposition is still thinking in winning elections as the way out of this foreign occupation, and total colapse of the state. Good luck number crunchers....
Amen
For financing: I think we need to do as THEY do with regards to financing.
And I am shocked and angry by the pasivity of Venezuelans abroad, with some exceptions.
We are at least 50000+ registered voters abroad, but I am sure we could be over 250000. It is difficult to register as 1) one needs his/her cédula and 2) chavismo is very hostile most of the time to people registering abroad. Still, the biggest obstacle for many Venezuelans to register abroad is their indifference.
Last but not least: the government stopped adding the votes of Venezuelans abroad after 2006. Our votes were "counted" at the embassies but not accounted for at the cne site for total results or simply listed.
That allowed Maduro to state last year that over 50% of Venezuelans registered to vote abroad actually SIGNED a petition in support of Hugo.
In a country with rule of law such a bastard would be sacked.
That is a shameless claim and it is not just "they supported Hugo", but "they SIGNED". That should have legal consequences.
There was just one effort by a Venezuelan woman, I think in Britain, and a little group in Venezuela, to demand from the cne the official report of results abroad. They sent registered letters and all. The cne, naturally, just ignored the issue.
Those votes would not have changed the final results...YET, but they would have given a powerful signal and would prove Maduro was lying about most of us signing something in support of this regime.
We should escalate matters, if need be to the International courts.
I think we Venezuelans abroad should work more actively to support Venezuela. Some of the things we should do:
- register as voters if we haven't done so
- always send letters to the embassy as registered letters (it is easy in the North)
- always send emails demanding something not personal with cc
to the international press
- join our efforts to demand the cne to resume the publication of results abroad in their site
- join efforts in demanding the regime to accept people voting or registering to vote abroad by using their passport (which should be considered identification as well as the cédula)
- join efforts to demand that the embassies produce cédulas for nationals living abroad
Kepler...demands???????
demanding demanding demanding,
and your really think demands will be taken seriously???????
The people can demand
the government to do what they have to do and those things are normal demands.
They are only employees of the whole nation, not of Hugo of Sabaneta.
You can say "demand", "ask", whatever. In any case: the issue again is, in my opinion, not whether they would do something about it, most likely they won't. It is to send a message to everyone in Venezuela and abroad showing very clearly that the government is not doing it.
The more proofs we have that the government does not want to fulfill the most basic duties it ha, the more we can isolate it, nationally and internationally.
Most people in Venezuela want transparency and fair play, even those who still support chavismo at low level (I am not talking about their functionaries, but the Yulimar Morenos)
Off Topic: Internet censorship
Internet Censorship by Venezuelan Government was suggested today by Antonio Pasquali in Marta's Colominas radio interview at 90.3 FM.
Antonio Pasquali suggested to look for NGO about this topic.
Here is one:
ONI News: Internet Censorship: http://bit.ly/d67HbR
Any other good sites that could be added ?
Uses of gerrymandering
There are several ways to tweak district maps to gain advantage.
1) Consolidate some oppo votes into hypermajority districts. In FPTP elections, any votes over a majority are "wasted"; this maximizes oppo wastage. What is Venezuela's system?
2) Create your own safe districts with a secure but not overwhelming majority. This discourages oppo voting in these districts, which become even safer.
3) Divide up communities with strong oppo sentiment or organization between multiple districts, thus crippling oppo campaigns.
4) Put oppo groups that are not natural allies together.
5) Push oppo incumbents into each others' districts.
6) Zigzag a border to throw a strong oppo candidate out of his or her natural constituency.
7) If the laws permit, vary the proportion of representation to voters. (In the U.S. the ratio must be exactly equal among districts in a state; other countries allow some variance.)
Note that several of these uses work in part by affecting future candidacies and voting; thus, there is no way to work them just from previous election figures.