Known unknowns
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We've been getting lots of questions on Hugo Chávez's latest moves. Faced with a veritable plethora of crises, the government is reacting counter-intuitively by flaring up the rhetoric, threatening with all-out war, promising never to leave power, and gleefully predicting many, many battles. It doesn't take a pollster to understand this is clearly not what Venezuelan voters want to hear.
All-out crazy? Or high-brained tactical maneuver conjured up in Miraflores and Havana?
Any sane political analyst would predict the government is piling up the errors and making a bad situation even worse. Conventional thinking would predict the opposition would be poised for huge gains.
But we should be cautious. As we have come to learn, normal political analysis seldom works in Chávez's Venezuela. The truth of the matter is that we can't know what the government is thinking or how events will develop. The best we can do at this stage is plot the scenarios and discuss them.
In order to frame the debate, it's good to start with the facts, and then go to what we don't know - the known unknowns, if you will.
These things are true:
- The country is mired in a deep public service crisis: electricity shortages and water shortages are the norm, and they won't get better any time soon.
- The crime wave shows no sign of abating.
- Recession and high inflation will persist in 2010.
- The government is losing popularity. How much is anyone's guess, but it's safe to say it's not making any new friends.
- Opposition parties and civil society are riled up and ready to hit the streets.
Faced with this situation, these are just some of the theories floating around as to what the government is thinking:
I. He's finally lost it. That's the gut reaction I'm getting from people who've been around elections: Chávez has finally lost the pulse of the nation, and his downfall is only a matter of time. Several news organizations are following this line.
While one can only wish, past experience tells us to be cautious. A guy with such a stranglehold on the country's institutions should not be under-estimated.
Furthermore, this scenario doesn't really explain how it is that Chávez is going to lose power. It won't be via the ballot box - even with low popularity, he's still likely to win the AN elections in September, his term expires in 2013, and there is no way we could win a Recall Referendum against him.
Is a coup in the making? This leads me to my next scenario.
II. There is rumbling in the barracks. A lot of talk lately about fights within the different factions of military chavismo, only amplified by the strange dismissal of former Vice-president Ramon Carrizalez and his entourage.
This is the Caracas Gringo hypothesis, whereby fights have already broken out in the military, only we don't know about them. If this is true, the government is basically warning rebel elements within the military: don't try to overthrow me, because there will be war. Could this be why the celebration of his 4-F coup was held in Fort Tiuna?
III. The 2002 nostalgia tour. This theory posts that Chávez is trying to make the crisis about him, radicalizing the opposition and hoping they make a mistake. The hope would be that, like in 2002, the public begins to see Chávez as a victim of the opposition's most radical and least likeable factions, and rally around "their" president.
This is unlikely to work. In 2002, the opposition was naive and less organized. The government was benefiting from an upsurge in oil prices, and Chávez himself was still relatively new in the political scene. The government made a case that had some truth to it: they don't let me govern.
This simply doesn't fly any more. The country's problems (crime, electricity, and water, the three strikes) can hardly be pegged to the opposition.
IV. Misión Mar de la Felicidad. This is the theory Quico subscribes to: the government has stopped caring about opinion polls or elections. It is simply telling people that more repression is on its way, and importing thugs to carry it out.
If this is the strategy, full cubanization of Venezuelan society is only a matter of months. If this is the case, we can't say we weren't warned.
Have your own theory? The comments board is wide open.
Juan Cristobal
Francisco Toro
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Its scary...
I agree with theory #04:
We know he finally lost it, however he has too much power at this point. He has advisors that have ample experience on repression tactics and uncovering insurrections (the cubans).
The opposition has little access to the media and the military are still in line thanks to their bosal de arepa. I have friends in two major military bases and the motto is "there is no talking about politics in here, its either for the goverment or shut the hell up". Nobody has the balls to stand up to Chavez and his machine.
I subscribe to the theory that Chavez has moles inside of the opposition and is (or has been) in bed with some major political figures.. it would not surprise me that Chavez has had agreements with folks such as Borges, Rosales and Teodoro (according to Caracas Gringo $300M were paid to the triumvirate back in 2006)...
Staying in power is the only way out for some of the main political figures in the current regime. Where is the Chavez family going to hide after this?
How about people like Lina Ron, Cilia Flores, Rafael Ramirez etc...
There is no democratic way out of this... there too much to lose for some political figures.
Interesting Blog
I have to say, as an American expat living in Caracas, that I really enjoy reading your articles. I am inclined to agree with most things you say, but I was wondering about your opinion (and that of your readers) about what your ¨ideal future¨ would be. I have been told that many of the opposition party candidates have been involved in politics for many years, working for administrations prior to the current one. The problem is that these prior administrations (thinking specifically of Perez) were not exactly ¨good guys,¨ either (ex: the Caracazo, perpetuated utter misery in the barrios). So, perhaps Chavez should be elected out of office, but who should he be replaced by? The opposition needs a new mantra (one that does not support the misdeeds of the current and old administrations) and new leaders (who are not tainted by the past and who are not relatives of those past leaders) in order to win wide-spread support. I myself know of many Caraqueños who would like to vote for someone other than Chavez, but they do not feel comfortable voting for the opposition, either. What is the opinion of this forum?
hm..
Interesting question, life after Chavez... that's something that has been discussed in this blog. But as hopes of change has died down.. well so have those discussions. At this point I think the consensus is that ANYONE that is not as aggressive and divisive as Chavez will be better for Venezuela.
What would I like to see?
I would like someone like Alvaro Uribe, a man who's not afraid of doing what he feels needs to be done. Even if he gets it wrong sometimes. A strong personality that Venezuelans can rally around without leaving anyone out.
Granted I don't know if the guy is guilty about some of the things that have been said about him. I don't like the fact hes pondering a third term in office.. but I like the results I have seen so far. Colombia has truly turned a corner.
We need a leader who is educated and who will rise above the temptation of corruption. Someone who truly believes he can change the country... someone willing to truly fight corruption and invest in education and infrastructure.
Does the opposition have a figure like that?
I'm not sure.. there are certainly a few men who have shown glimpses of leadership. As immature as he can be Leopoldo Lopez seems to have his heart on the right place, there are others like Roberto Smith and Capriles.
The problem with the opposition is that just like Chavez, its lead by a bunch of "figures" who are past their prime. They are not willing to take a backseat and let their movements take off, so they have corrupted themselves and sold out on their ideals to stay in power.
I'm talking about guys like Henry Ramos Allup and Julio Borges. I beleive the perfect example of the rotten apples in the Venezuelan opposition are the guys from Proyecto Venezuela.
However, its naive to think that the opposition will fix all its wrongs before Chavez leaves the office. It just is not going to happen, change needs time...
The only chance that the opposition will develop is if there are opportunities for it to develop...
Oh, no
if many people in Venezuela see Uribe as a role modell, we are
definitely screwed.
First of all: whether he has improved things for his country is not the matter here.
We are not talking about names. We are talking about ideas, about principles.
Why do Venezuelans have to always go to "figures"?
One of the things we can do to avoid caudillos is precisely propose principles, plans, not people.
It´s very true that we need
It´s very true that we need to vote for our principles. The problem being, of course, that in the end we´re going to have to vote for people who we hope represent our principles. So, if you or people you know will be voting for the assembly this fall, who do you think has the best chance of actually acting on principle and not falling into the black-pit which is Venezuelan Politics? What does the ¨ideal-Venezuela¨ look like? Its easy to say that it would be better without Chavez and its easy to pick-out his flaws, but its harder to say why the other side is actually better.
We need to vote for people with principles and a plan
The scary thing is that Venezuela does not seem to have people with that, even if people ARE looking for it.
chavistas did have a plan, but it was about getting into power. The commie part of their groups has been winning over lately, but most very basically just thugs craving for power, with some
ideas about some badly digested "Bolivarian" myth.
The oppo talks about "freedom", but should be aware that 1) a lot of people are asking for them to say more and 2) even if they were to get into power, the whole thing will blow up in their faces unless they have a plan and a comprehensive way of communicating to people. They haven't got it yet.
Kepler,
Heres the
Kepler,
Heres the problem:
You are not going to move from a system to another in a single term. Currently, I believe Venezuela needs someone that brings results and has the balls to do what is needed to do. The last thing we need is a pseudo-europeanish (yes I made that word up) politician that promises to turn Venezuela into the next Norway and ends ups doing nothing.
TODAY (<-- key word), we need a strong figure that paves the way for tomorrow. We need a man with a plan, but a man that has the cojones to implement that plan regardless of the situation.
Im not asking for a caudillo, but for a strong personality that makes Venezuelans feel secure about their country.
We need someone with the balls to come out and raise gas prices, we need a person that inspires those in the barrios.
A caudillo based system is what we got, and thats what we have to play with. Once we start moving in the right direction (aka: democracy) we can start thinking about a parlament, etc...
I don't ask for a Norwegian, but someone NOT Rosales-Baduel
Venezuelans, unlike our neighbours, don't produce anything.
We agree harsh measures are needed. But we need communicators. It is not just one individual. We need communicators to get to power and to stay there enough time to start fixing things.
A strong man alone won't do.
I don't care about the ideas, but he has to say more than "freedom" or "Misiones without chávez"
Today Venezuelans don't care
Today Venezuelans don't care about whether we produce anything or not.
We want to flick a switch and have our lights turn on, we want to open the lavamanos and have water pour out. We want to go see a movie and not worry about getting shot. THATS WHAT WE NEED TO SELL.
We dont need fancy plans or new geniuses.. we don't need someone selling themselves as the new coming of Jesus Christ. We need someone who is charismatic and has the balls to uphold the law. We need someone with a character and values high enough that he wont fall into the abyss of corruption.
We need someone educated enough to make the right calls and stick with the correct policies.. even if they are unpopular.
Who gives a crap about the "larger plan"... they never work out. Most people just want the government to uphold the law, that would be a HUGE improvement and a step on the right direction.
Tank
Actually more people than you think.
In fact, the very humble Yubisay and Yonni Pacheco in Miguel Pena, Los Guayos or Quibor sometimes give more thought to that than the usual Juan Esteban Olivetti del Pierro, to the amazement of some Maria Alejandra Lopezes.
One just needs to get to them with plain language. It is possible. Venezuelans may be highly uneducated but they are usually not idiots.
Just give them a chance and explain things through
Tank has a practical outlook
I totally agree with Tank on these issues.His outlook is practical and therefore doable.It is sketchy to think that we can go from a very unfortunate 'here' to an enlightened 'there' in just one fell swoop.
If we stay in the perfectionist mode for too long, with ideas that are too " mas alla" than what we can accomplish, more than likely we will lose the opportunities we do have.
I also agree somewhat with Quico, that Chavez knows what he does.Does he sometimes lose his temper? Of course.But his general behavior is cunning, and even if he 'loses it' at times, he has the power base, the advisers, and enough 'wolfishness' to cover his mistakes.
A general plan is what is needed.A plan that is too detailed will not only be lost on most folks, but with the state of the country as it is,and until many basics are repaired and/or restored, it is futile to make a detailed plan that will just end up being broken.
Evolution is a process not a 'golpe de estado'.
First has to come public safety before ANYTHING at all can be done.
firepigette
I can agree with all that, BUT...
...when you suggest that "Uribe" is like that you're suggesting that you're ok with it even if that "strong leader" murders thousands of innocent people "for the greater good" and gets re-elected again and again and again...and that's where most of the rest of us get off the bus.
Aight.. scratch the "Uribe"
Aight.. scratch the "Uribe" and replace with "Strong and charismatic leader".
I dont like Uribe, I would not vote for him. But... have you traveled to Colombia?
The results are there to be seen... the change is palpable.
Thats kind of what I was going for... I should have known using someone as an example was going to detract from my idea (that and I could not find anyone else in LatAm that has done a decent job..)
You're all doomed
First of all: whether he has improved things for his country is not the matter here.
We are not talking about names. We are talking about ideas, about principles.
No, never vote for someone who might be seen favorably by the wrong element. Ideas are all, along with principles, principles carried with a certain style, a way of being, a way of being just too damn perfect to live. That's the ticket. Best place to do that is from Grande Europe or perhaps the Ebil Empire.
You´re thoughts are very
You´re thoughts are very interesting. But what about the upcoming assembly election? Even IF the opposition were able to get through the barriers put into place by PSUV and stand a chance of (at least having SOME) their candidates get elected... Will these candidates bring ¨change,¨ or will they just try to push Venezuela back into what it was before Chavez (which I think most of Venezuela would rather not have, either)? Chavez and the PSUV might not be ¨good guys,¨ but is the opposition (if it were to have some power in government) really made up of ¨good guys,¨ anyway? Or are the current figureheads of the opposition just another type of ¨bad guy?¨
It is very difficult to find good middle-ground arguments regarding politics in Venezuela, as I´m sure you are all familiar with. I do try to be well-rounded, but this can be a struggle (as can so many things in this beautiful, but complicated, country).
Chavista scare tactic
For the most part - not totally, but for the most part - I think you're consciously or unconsciously parroting a Chavista scare tactic more than making an orignal analysis. Chavismo's long known that the old regime was very largely discredited, and so has spent considerable resources "pegging" the opposition to the past. But this was always more about (effective) political positioning than about reasoned analysis.
Remember, even back in 1998, the traditional political parties never got more than 7% of voting intentions in the poll. Chávez's opponent even then was ALSO an outsider. The old regime had lost any viability even before Chávez came to power. The argument that the opposition is determined to resurrect it is calculated to scare you into acquiesence with an authoritarian regime.
Interesting point, thanks for
Interesting point, thanks for making it because I´m not sure that otherwise I would have ever heard it. I didn´t realize that was something Chavez used as a scare tactic, but maybe I soaked it in without realizing it. I´m really happy to have found a place for such conversation, because the chavistas always say ¨But the opposition is evil and I will bring freedom!¨ and the opposition says ¨Chavez is evil and we will bring freedom!¨ but there is no conversation answering the questions of why and how, which are important questions to ask.
Im with Quico here.
Its a
Im with Quico here.
Its a scare tactic.
IF the opposition and the Ni-Nis come out to vote.. en masse... there is no way they can cheat us out.
:) You made my day...
Make yourself an account so we can refer to you as more than "Anonymous"...
The past?!
The opposition has many figures not linked to past administrations: Borges, Leopoldo Lopez, Ocariz, Henrique Capriles, Pablo Perez, Carlos Vecchio, Gerardo Blyde, Salas Feo, etc. Whoever is saying everyone in the opposition is too tainted by the past clearly doesn't know what they're talking about.
even more insane...
...are the notions that key opposition figures received huge payments from the government.
This single allegation by Caracas Gringo has made me suspect all his other (non-sourced) "reporting". I regard his conspiracy theories with as much skepticism as I regard those of Chavez.
Anyone who knows how these people live, and has followed their public statements (brutal condemnations of incomptence and corruption leveled against the government and against Chavez personally), or their work to recruit Asamblea candidates, would never believe this.
Chavez himself certainly isn't acting like he's got the opposition in his back pocket. He's scared of the elections.
you would be surprised.
you would be surprised.
I have to agree with Lucia
I also tend to think that lucubrating about payments to the oppo leaders is exactly like denouncing fraud on the referendum because where you were everyone voted against chavez, so it is "obvious" there was a fraud... A far fetched conspiracy is far more reassuring...
Is another of those self defeating concepts, if even the opposition leaders will take money from Chavez then what is the point of voting if anyway he is going to buy his way into winning?
Referendum
I know some folks will disagree, but I believe some results from the 2004 RR were tainted. Whether that means Chavez really lost is another matter, it could have simply been padding. But I've seen quite a few papers explaining the statistics, as well as the methods (methods which have been used to detect fraud elsewhere) applied to the results AS A WHOLE (not, just where I voted) that showed something was rotten in Denmark.
the perverse rumor mill
Good comment Lucia.
This kind of rumor would be precisely what Chavez would like to perpetrate.It would imply that it is useless to support the opposition because they have been secretly bought by Chavez anyway.
Even if it is possible that some members of the opposition may have received money from Chavez,it is not a reason to generalize and discredit the opposition.Many are suffering hardships and fighting Chavez under very difficult conditions.
Firepigette
A combination is more likely...
He has lost it or is losing it as we speak. Reality is catching up with him and there's not enough money to cover it up. These times are not 2002 all over again, the problems Chavez faces are self-inflicted. He doesn't have the will or the people capable to deal with them.
The only way for him is moving forward (the fourth scenario JC proposed), not just because he wants it, but he doesn't have a viable alternative (He won't even dare to bring the word dialogue again). Still, chavismo is already showing its cracks and more intrigues and in-fighting will show up more openly in the near future. Just stay tuned to what's happening in Lara. It's Falcon vs. Reyes/Saez/Chavez all the way and it will get messy, Battle Royale style.
The opposition is wise to stick to the September elections, the student movement is taking the fight (too convenient for them).
Even if they're not the same as 2002, they still have some deep flaws that they have to sort it out. But the best they can do is let reality do the action. Crime, blackouts, food shortages, corruption, collapsed hospitals and prisons are not going away soon.
That situation in Lara
Sure is interesting. Henry Falcon is one of the few semi-independent chavista power brokers left - and yet we know so little about him. Feel free to expand - I feel I know very little about this guy, but it could be key.
Henry Blanco is an
Henry Blanco is an interesting figure... I think he has little national appeal. Hes kept quiet for a while...
err.. Henry Falcon.
lol
err.. Henry Falcon.
lol
Henry
Henry Blanco is a good defensive catcher, that's all..
elections
I actually don't agree that Chavez is still likely to succeed in elections this year.
The polls being cited publicly (support below 50%) are out of date. His support has been falling since, and in any case, the Asamblea deputies have always been even less popular.
This year, a lot of voters are going to be looking to send the government a message about the direction of the country.
I think Chavez is going to start with his old playbook: see if he can provoke the opposition into sounding just as radical and violent (and non-democratic) as he is. This has worked in the past. Look for tensions within the opposition as those who want to follow the democratic path are labelled comeflor and worse (bribe-takers!). But I'm hopeful that the opposition with true democratic values will prevail this time, and realize the benefit of offering people a responsible alternative to Chavismo.
The President has a Plan B, should the opposition prove more savvy this time around: more open and more brutal repression.
None of us know exactly what 2010 will bring. (Will elections even be held? Will the results be nullified by [illegal] executive orders?). But it isn't going to be pretty.
my take
OK now, I think that this dichotomy about figures or platforms is pretty artificial. There is no way in hell a good plan will get ahead without a leader that gets it sold. At the same time it´s going to be a hard going for a politician to get elected without any sort of plan whatsoever (even is such plan is just a fairy tale full of indistinct generic platitudes).
On the other hand whenever you hear that anyone would be better than Chavez the implicit text here is anyone would be better than Chavez as long as they abide and enforce the LAW, including this Constitution. I mean, that would be one hell of an improvement.
Of course we aspire to much more than that. The thing is that the more specific the plan the more chances you have to alienate potential voters. If we want to get past such pointers as "tough on crime", "war on corruption", "food on the table for everyone", "respect of basic human rights" and so on, the road gets a bit bumpy. Let´s say we talk about what to do with oil income, or should we let the Bolivar float and try to become an export oriented economy and not be so dependent on oil, what about infrastructure, or education. Once we get to that point we´ll get mired in debates that will drive wedges all along the opposition. The situation is bad enough as it is.
What I would like is a two step plan. First of all we get rid of Chavez (and I am starting to contemplate a plethora of means that go well beyond beating Chavez in an election). In place of Chavez we get an interim government whose only task is to get the institutions in place that will safeguard the future of the Republic. Getting the Judiciary back to independence will be one of its major goals, then come all of the public entities, from PDVSA to CNE, to Electric and phone comapnies (now public). This should take a year. Enough time for real elections to be organised, and for parties with distinct platforms and ideas on everything to debate and compete for votes, in an orderly fashion, with respect for freedom, legality and equality.
The wee problem with this
is that we may get a civil war.
Venezuela is concked out. We have to get it: it is concked out. Whoever gets the kettle this or next year: it will blow up in his hands unless he has some plan, whatever it is as long as it is democratic.
If we are unable to say now the path will be very rough and sacrifices will be needed, we won't get a the support we need once we get there
Theory II and IV
Theories II and IV are not mutually exclusive. I tend to see the recent rhetoric as signs of both of these happening. There is one other social requirement for full Cubanization and that for the population in the top one percentile in terms of leadership and ability to be chased, or scared, out.
In any society, true progress or change is created by a very tiny percentage of the population. These are the people that stand in the way of Cubanization. Even though this number is small, percentage-wise, it is inconvenient (and counter-productive) to move against all of them by jailing or killing them. The better strategy, used by Castro, is to make life so uncomfortable for them, that they willingly leave. Once the majority of these leave, any remaining can be jailed or disappeared. The remaining population will be passive and docile, and can be lead like sheep.
Thus, the dialed-up rhetoric is aimed at convincing as many Opposition Venezuelans as possible that it is time to get out. He wants the exodus to begin now.
This is actually very true
The same strategy has been used in Belarus, by the way.
Asinus asinum fricat.
A mix
I think we´re in a mix of scenarios. Firt, he lost it. Nowadays he doesn´t live in Vzla, he´s in some random country based on his circle of ministers and militaries. The problem today is that he can´t do anything, he doesn´t have the ammount of money he used to have some years ago.
Second,
They´ll put all the money they have in the september´s campaign, but I think it won´t be enought. If the oppos got +50% in the referendum with the oil prices that high, this time won´t be enough and it doesn´t seems that hard to reach the magical 52,3%.
This time Chavez isnt in danger directly in the campaign, not as he was in the first referendum and "the future of the revolution", It´s more like the governors elections. Obviosly he´ll try to link himself with the election, but it´s not that easy. That´s the rush to tease the oppos with the idea of a referendum, but they are not as naive as years ago
And finally, if the oppos win the election that will be a problem. He´ll do all his tricks and maybe that´s where the scenario 4 starts...
The sad thing is that I (and a lot of people) can´t imagine a good scenario for this year.
Lost it?
When are we going to stop falling in the trampa caza-bobos about Chávez having lost it? The guy knows exactly what he's doing...if his moves don't seem to make sense to you, that just means you're using the wrong frame of reference to interpret them.
politicians are human ...
... and they make mistakes. All it takes is the right circumstances and a couple of traitors.
This theory can't be simply discarded.
II, III and IV are correct: but theory I is deeply misguided
The idea that Chávez has lost it is desperately naïve: he knows EXACTLY what he's doing. And what he's doing is a combination of theories II and III (personalizing the crisis, and trying to ferret out his opponents in the armed forces - more the latter than the former.)
BTW, I think theories II and III imply that theory IV is also right: what normal people think doesn't begin to matter to him anymore. We're past that stage.
Democracy means the guys with the votes decide. Authoritarianism means the guys with the guns decide.
That's why theory II is the one closest to the mark.
That is right
And the guys knows what magic words to use.
Look at this:
http://el-nacional.com/www/site/p_contenido.php?q=nodo/121326/Nacional/C...
Not a coincidence the regions he mentioned in Carabobo are the regions we must fight for.
He will send thousands of cops, military there, he will then declare crime has decreased 50% or something (even if it is only 20%, but people will feel it, after all). Never mind the murder rate during his reign has increased much much much more than 100% in those regions
(nationally the murder rate is > 300% higher)
People have no long-term memory, so many may buy it.
Hugo may not have read Marx, but he knows when to use the word Marx and Das Kapital to get commies excited (and commies in Venezuela have a long experience in field work in the slums).
He certainly does not know Kierkegaard, but he mentioned her in Denmark much to the orgasmic pleasure of Danish PSFs.
He may or may not like Mariachis, but he mentioned his love for mariachis to a Mexican working at the Oecd during one of his visits to Paris.
He may think mankind is just 20 centuries old, but he knows how to let people in the middle of nowhere in Lara think he knows about our native American origins and tribes and he tells them stories about the Popol Vuh, maize and their maize-growing cooperatives.
319 million bolivars
is but a drop in the bucket. No way this paltry amount is going to make much of a difference. They'll spend that much in publicity, saying crime rates have plummeted. But will it make a real difference? I hope it does, but I doubt it.
Willy-nilly: we will have to plan ahead, because
Hugo will try to follow suit. We need to be faster and make people see his announcements are just too late and not really meant.
He may used more.
Anyway: we need to use the security card, we need to inform people also how things are elsewhere in South America (remember most Venezuelans have never been abroad) and last but not least: the candidates for each region have to get one or two further topics that are key to those regions.
dude you dont need all that
dude you dont need all that mumbo jambo..
All you need is to promise security, food and light/water. Thats it.
Venezuelan's dont give a rats ass about whats going on in the rest of south America. The oppo just needs to hit the streets and show some charisma, sell a country where you keep the good of Chavismo (or whats perceived as good) and do away with the bad.
OK, you will be using the very succesful Rosales strategy
Hugo will be saying the same , but claiming to be "the real thing"
Rosales? Please.. did you
Rosales? Please.. did you ever sit down and listen to him speak?
He didn't do anything, he promised a bunch of crap that EVERYBODY knew was total BS. People voted for Rosales because it was a vote against Chavez.
Mi Negra was the worst idea he could have ever had. Even if it was feasible/possible. Nobody bought it...
He was not charismatic at all (he could not even pronounce correctly). He started campaigning late and didn't have a proper campaign. He never had the balls to look Chavez in the eye.
Go ahead and walk into Catia talking about how we don't produce anything.. see what kind of answer you get.
I was being sarcastic
but we need neither a Baduel-Rosales lot or someone who may be associated with Uribe.
As Quico said: you don't want to be associated with someone who is associated, whether rightly or not, with the executions taking place in that country, even if Uribe is popular there.
Venezuela is not colombia. We don't say people are unproductive, but we do need to say we need to offer real jobs to people and Venezuela needs to produce its own stuff.
Anyone in the barrios will understand that. You are closer, you should really go and listen to people there.
"Promise security, food and light/water."
That is going to be a promise that is impossible to deliver on quickly, and most everyone knows that it would be a lie. It might be more effective to simply tell the truth and promise five years of "blood, sweat, and tears." leading to a better future.
That's an important point
The problem with making these elections about these issues is that there are no easy fixes, and there is no way the AN can make a difference in the short term. It's tricky.
Yes I agree.
The solutions
Yes I agree.
The solutions gotta be viable.. cant make empty promises.
massacre
Communists always provoke a massacre of their opponents sooner or later when the people start to realize they've been had. It will be hard to do it behind closed doors this time, unlike previous massacres behind the "iron" or "bamboo" curtain with no video cameras or cell phones or internet. I hope the rest of the world will not sit idly by and watch like it did in Rwanda. Cuba should have been invaded the instant the Soviet Union fell apart and we wouldn't be in this crap now. Castro should be in his glass casket like Lenin.