It's a ploy
I can see it now. Foreign journalists in Venezuela beginning to board the Henry Falcón bandwagon, naming him Chávez's strongest rival, clapping away at their keyboards discussing "chavismo sin Chávez."
I can practically hear the chitchat in the bakeries of Las Mercedes, in the halls of plush condos in La Castellana, where the Marialejandralopeces of the world, excited about their "reasonable" chavista, are talking about how the government is discombobulated and has a rival it fears in Falcón.
It's all a ploy.
There's no doubt the man has charisma, but he is also highly overrated. Otherwise sensible bloggers label him "the most interesting politician in Venezuela," but I won't go that far.
True, he is an atypically independent-minded chavista. But that's like being the skinniest kid at Fat Camp.
True, he is way more efficient than the average chavista hack. But if he's so hot, why is the Barquisimeto transportation system Transbarca such a mess?
Facts are pesky little things, and the fact of the matter is this: Henry Falcón has been, is, and will probably continue to be, totally committed to the agenda of the revolution.
Just twelve months ago, this man campaigned hard for the Constitutional Referendum. In fact, given the margin with which Chávez won, Chávez probably owes him that victory.
The Governor of Lara says he "continues to be a revolutionary" and continues to "seek dialogue with the President." This is a man who, when he was expelled from the PSUV in 2008 (he was later readmitted), announced to the world that, in spite of being thrown out of the PSUV, he would "always" support and admire Chávez, calling himself a true revolutionary "forever."
This video from a few months ago where Chávez discusses Francisco Arias Cardenas and his "journey" back to the arms of chavismo is pretty illuminating. Chávez views the fights between his party and Falcón as part of a "conspiracy" of the bourgoisie, even warning of the possibility that people will prop him up to run against Chávez in spite of the "love" he has for Henry.
It's good to ponder this while we wonder where Henry's outrage was when chavismo took over the TSJ? Where was his revolutionary conscience when the CNE practically rigged the 2005 NA elections? Where was his democratic instinct when witnessing the treatment of University students exercising their right to protest? And what does he think of the dozens of political prisoners?
In the next few days, chavismo will strap him to the rails and continue its morning commute. But while we rejoice at the infighting and ponder admitting him to our own little club, let's not forget that chavismo is a religion, and right now Falcón is nothing more than its most famous wayward sheep.
Falcón's false hope for the opposition makes him a most dangerous Trojan horse. Let's not kid ourselves: he's no opposer of Chávez, and we'd be doing ourselves a disservice treating him as anything but the chavista that he is.
Juan Cristobal
Francisco Toro
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So true
That.
"But if he's so hot, why is the Barquisimeto transportation system Transbarca such a mess?"
I agree that Falcon is a very dangerous person for the oppos to put their hopes on.
Hell, if any chavista/socialista gets a hold on this country, we will be full of Transbarcas, Nigales, Metro de Maracaibos and such :p
Anyways, I think its too soon to think about a substitute for chavez, but time is running short to pick up the AN that could at least put some breaks into the chavista bandwagon.
Are there any progresses on the negotiations/primaries, or are they still arguing what kind of whisky are they having?
Are there any more analysis on the move? :) I sure hope so (they were G-R-E-A-T!)
Outsider Hunters
It sounds like a reality show, no?
"Three pundits, one deep jungle...and an elusive outsider, up for grabs!"
I fully admit that outsider-hunting is a sad way to spend our time. It reeks of desperation. I know that.
On the other hand, when two-thirds of the population thinks the country is "on the wrong track" but even then fewer than one in five say they'll vote for the main political opposition, desperation is all we've got.
The opposition brand is New Coke. It's AIG. It's Parmalat. Deeply toxic. Which is what pushes us outsider hunters into these pathetic goose chases. After all, who's a bigger pendejo? El que cree en H. Falcón o el que cree en Ledezma? Who's more psychotically detached from reality? Chamo, it's a close call...
It's no contest
That's just the thing, it's no contest: Ledezma!
I'm no fan of his, but come on ... and it doesn't have to be Ledezma, there are other people in the oppo that are much better than both Ledezma and Falcon.
Let me put it this way: there are three things most people on the street (outside of Lara) know about H. Falcon:
a) He's articulate
b) He's really popular
c) He's fighting with chavistas
But google the man, look at his record: every psycophantic, uber-ideological measure Chavez has taken, and the guy has been there, tactily supporting it. The closing of RCTV, the April 11 trials, the corruption, Lista Tascon - he's 100% involved in all that. Has he ever expressed any discomfort with chavismo's most radical measures? Other than the instances where chavismo invades his own personal turf, no. So why are we even considering him a dark horse for the 2012 election?
Seriously, take a look at that Arias Cardenas video and think about what fools we were back in 2000, thinking that we could buy into the chavismo sin Chavez meme and believing it could be succesful.
You guys are getting carried away by your lefty sensibilities - it's the part of you that really wants to like Chavez that is responding to Falcon. I, for one, am not fooled. Never have been.
Mr. "Chavez has a vagina":
Mr. "Chavez has a vagina":
Your disconnection from the day-to-day dynamics in Venezuela is getting out of control, as well as your lame attempts at humor...
I thought that your oft-repeated and apparently favorite cliché, the "Marialejandralopeces of the world", meant the very definition of intolerance; but now you can practically hear them chit-chatting and praising Falcon for being reasonable. Furthermore a couple of paragraphs later you quote the subject of your post himself as desiring "to seek dialogue with the president". Who is the intolerant again?
But you say, "It's a ploy". Who is the irrational now? Go tell that to Albornoz and his recently "frozen" party.
Please Mr. Toro, do try to exercise more editorial control over your partner. The quality of this blog is suffering.
MPC
Who is Falcon?
And what is all the fuzz about him... he's just another chavista del monton. i find it really ridicule the way some blogger and news sites have been portraying him, as the new messiah for 2012 the outsider everyone's been looking for.
Well, he's no outsider, he comes from chavismo, he's a chavista, his main idol is chavez and still now, he says he is chavista, he's been supporting everything's chavez been doing and still now he says he support the revolution' project.. so whats the fuzz? he's really a nobody... from carora pa aca, nobody knows him, he has no future, chavistas will keep being chavista, he has no way of fighting against chavez alone, and i bet in a few month he'll be nothing more than what didalco bolivar is right now.
How is he going to win me over, and all the people that opposes chavez, if his project is the same one as chavez?
maybe he's the candidate for the chavistas arrepentidos, and that could be good for the opposition, if he manage to divide them, but he will never have a place between the ones that opposes chavez, cause he simply doesnt opposes him, he adore him. he is part of the same cult as lina ron or iris varela.
i dont understand the fuzz over this nobody... seriously.
The Fuzz
Ok... The fuzz is the following: the country's situation is really really really bad. Hurricane Feces and all that.
I work in a ministry, and for the first time in years, you can really smell the FEAR in the chavistas. Not fear from the escualidos... as Quico sez, opposition's brand is in the pits. It is fear from the BARRIOS. More specifically, Caracas and Guarenas barrios (yes eager-beaver valenciano and maracucho ordinario, CARACAS ES CARACAS Y LO DEMAS ES MONTE Y CULEBRA. I don't like it, you hate it, but that is the way it is). Add to that, fear from the MILITARY. Not Plaza Altamira-like bolsas sin tropa, but active and nationalistic NASSER-TYPE military, fed up with foreign meddling in internal affairs.
hmmm, my paranoia is kicking in... So: barrios + the military + messianic leader who lost it. Que se deja llamar marica por Uribe. If there is something that an izquierdoso resentido hates more than a Zuloaga or a Granier is an Uribe or a Santos.
The fuzz is not over Falcon, he is a nobody as you say... The fuzz is precisely the fact that a nobody such as him felt bold enough to abandon that putrid ship called psuv. Kudos to Daniel for getting it.
rant over.
Not quite a "nobody"
Falcón is a local politician that had some success in Lara, so was Clinton in Arkansas for that matter (and he did turn out to be a conservative Trojan horse of sorts in the Democratic party, he managed to change it in many senses). The issue here is at the kernel of JC posting, we have seen this before.
Falcón is not quite a nobody because Chavismo itself has propped him into some relevance, plus he is the flavor of the month for the media. The question remains, however, about how will he handle his stardom (will it be All about Eve style? one of the comments here remind me of those lines "Let me tell you about Eve...").
Everything is lining up to be a repeat of the Arias episode, but it need not be that way; and somehow, in spite of all the branding negatives, I still prefer to trust anti-chavismo groups to figure this one out.
nd in caracaschronicles
this post is like an noticiero digital comment. it's so full of FUD. the same FUD oppo parties like PJ,AD,etc. want to spread around henri. you do not know henri falcon. in fact most people outside lara don't really know him.
first comparing him with arias cardenas. he is not a saman de guere guy. he is despised by chavez since almost always. and also his nemesis is reyes reyes, chavez's compa.
also you know what.... this guy is humble. he is not a fat man in palace. i have seen him around in town. he goes to church. he drives his car. very little entourage (only one bodyguard). he talks to everyone. he has been in meetings with the industrials, with the barrios, with buhoneros, with shop owners.
And the last drop is transbarca. what a cheap shot... please do your homework before posting. transbarca was taken away (as also the new terminal) by the mopvi and pdvsa. falcon explained this very clear at his press conference. the project was taken away as a personal vendetta by chavez and reyes reyes (they were punishing him for not letting reyes reyes son run for governor).
in fact 1 year in office and you can see the difference. he is today inaugurating a distributor. also he repaired a lot of roads. he even was purging the police but MIJ (chavez) stop him from doing so.
I live 15 days in barquisimeto and 15 days in Santa Rosa de Lima in Baruta. And I can say that gerardo blyde is lazy lazy man if you compare him to falcon.
la carne es debil
Well, I can see all it takes is being "simpatico" and inaugurating a couple of bridges to win you over. The Cuban takeover of our country? The militias? The egregious interference with the courts system? (see Quico's post) The blatant intervention in elections with the use of public funds? Oh, well, let's just not talk about that. Whistle along, keep moving, nothing to see here folks.
CT, I get that you like him, but the man comes with serious, serious baggage, and I for one, will do all I can to prevent him from getting any further.
you are so black and white
not to defend henri falcon, but c'mon are you going to talk about a couple of bridges. is that simple to you. in that way i can destroy any oppo candidate. your argument is so marialejandralopezque
chavista = bad
not chavista = good
so maybe 80% of the country has baggage but in 2000 like an 80% of the country was chavista. henri did not support reforma constitucional and even though he supported enmienda it was like he did not. He was the only governor that chavez did not visit in 2008, he has been a long time against chavez, but as a good politician he has to be careful not to lose his base (which is mostly his own, not psuv). And also I can tell you that this guy does not even put his picture in billboards like most chavista do in every public work. nor in ambulance. his picture is seen very seldom in town.
Como dicen por ahi te vere en la otra acera.
Red or not red
Not black or white, more like red or not red.
Seriously, how can Falcon possibly expect to get our endorsement with phrases like
"Hugo Chavez Frias goza de toda nuestra estima y respeto ayer, hoy y siempre."
"Soy un verdadero revolucionario que asumio un proyecto de vida para siempre..."
"Siempre apoyando al Presidente de la Republica en cualquier acto..."
"Quiero ratificar mi apoyo solidario, no solo a las politicas emanadas del Gobierno Nacional, a sus proyectos, a sus planes, mas alla de los proyectos y planes, a la persona de nuestro lider, el presidente Chavez..."
And this guy is being taken seriously as a "foe" to Chavez?
Al tigre lo conocen por sus
Al tigre lo conocen por sus rayas.
respond this topic
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Un chavista light?
A politician who calls or called himself a chavista is just not to be trusted.
It is simple: "chavista" comes from the family name Chávez.
That is simply sick, a guy calling himself after an "ideological" movement that is nothing more than personality cult of the guy governing the country.
This is not a minor issue. It shows a person's state of mind, what he can put up with.
"Leninists" did not call themselves like that until Lenin kicked the bucket. They called themselves revolutionaries, communists, bolsheviki, not Leninists.
The surname-ism started afterwards. The same with Trotsky.
It sounded anyway less ridiculous if you lived in Japan or Australia and called yourself a Trotskist after a guy who was in exile. Trotsky was out of power, so it was not such a - to use a Basque expression - jala-bola term.
As far as I know even Stalinists did not call themselves Stalinists in the Soviet Union while Stalin was alive, no matter how pathetically they were praising the Georgian dictator.
Falcón still says he supports "el proceso", just like Tascón. He is wobblier than Tascón as he already went away from his Hugo and returned.
The guy is, like some other llaneros we have seen, a military who went to the Universidad Simón Bolívar to "study political sciences" and joined this group concocting this "Bolivarian" dream. He certainly has good intentions. Believe me: even Chávez has them and we know that little fellow very well.
Do you know how security is in Lara? It is the horror!
What has he got to show? The sidewalks? The feria with great, expensive artists?
We don't need caudillos. We need a movement with IDEAS, with a plan, a plan going beyond FREEDOM, if we ever want to attain that freedom.
But first, you need to win
There is an Arab expression that says, "The enemy of my enemy is my friend."
I don't always completely agree with that, however, in this case, Falcon, and any other politician who rejects Chavez in favor of pluralism in any form should be welcomed by the Opposition. Once you have defeated the Main Enemy, you can then squabble over ideas. And, who knows? Through dialogue and cooperation, maybe the opposition can sway Falcon's socialist leanings by appealing to his pragmatism.
In any case, the Opposition does not now have, and probably never will have, a unity of ideas. It is sufficient that they unify against Chavez.
United on having ideas, not unity in ideas
Roy,
They should share just support pluralism and democracy but they should have their own ideas, whatever these may be and show them.
They really are not doing it. Perhaps one or two have, but it is like they keep the plan in a hidden box.
Telling people what they stand for exactly would also, on the side, lead to several of those parties merging as they only exist because of some bloody egos. As I have repeatedly said, Venezuela is the only country but Somalia where rather "normal" tendencies as social democracy and liberalism have like 12 parties e-a-c-h.
Look: many here have been actively supporting the opposition even but we know where we stand. The vast majority of the population does NOT DO THAT. Most never do, anywhere. Meanwhile the government is brainwashing more and more people. They may be falling out of love with the government, but they are being brainwashed nonetheless, as in the Prison Island.
I have talked to quite some of those people who are undecided.
I have talked, as I said earlier, with oppos who live in very chavista areas.
I have also had conversations with opposition people who are currently working in those areas in several states.
They all say the same: people ask what the opposition parties have as proposal, what parties stand for.
Look, I will go back to my "tia chavista". I was talking to her the other day and she said: "but why are the opposition leaders just sending those students to the street and to danger WITH THEIR PAINTED HANDS and don't tell us the ideas you are telling me?"
Two things:
1) my ideas are not my ideas, they are not particularly brilliant, many may be rubbish, but I told her briefly but concretely how I saw a better Venezuela. I know many other people have such or better ideas, but none of those ideas are getting there.
2) she mentioned the manos pintadas. This is part of the brainwashing, but it can only happen because we are letting ourselves be driven by events or other people. I know what they are getting at:
white hands like in Ukraine, Jugoslavia, Georgia, product of USAIDS, which is in itself, blablablah.
Well, you know what? It is true. The issue is we should also
be reflecting on that, accept what is true and try to develop our own home-grown strategy.
The chavista propaganda knows it very well: they go time after time after some students protesting and ask them: "why do you march?" "Because of freedom". "Yeah, and what about..."?
And they are not prepared to say anything more.
And that is shown on TV ad nauseam.
That goes even with "leaders" as Goicochea.
"Freedom, freedom, freedom" is not enough, not now because the regime is cooking the frogs on low flame.
This won't be easy and it is not fair: many of the seeds of chavismo were planted there by groups that were actively supported by the Soviet Union.
The KGB actually trained Venezuelans up to the eighties.
But basically the Soviet Union is dead now. The US is not and it is seen as a threat by many even now.
Cuba is taking the place of the Soviet Union, but Cuba is not seen as a foreign threat as the US by most poor people in Venezuela. Most people admire it, but they don't like seeing those students as puppets of some US foundations.
Cubans, on the other side, just blend in better. The Ché culture has been permeating Latin America for ages, anyhow. The Soros foundation ideas, the white hand movements are just too imported.
I am asking for the different groups to develop their own ideologies, their own answers, whatever they are, and work together to get Hugo out, but they will only do it if people think they have done their internal homework each.
I am also asking them to reflect on what chavistas are saying and deny, reject or confirm whatever they want but do that after a good reflexion.
kepler=mariaalejandrolopez
even the nasal tone is similar
"a man who calls himself chavista cannot be trusted"
half the country, my friend.
They are not
There are less than 30%.
Half the country believes in Hugo. That is a very different matter than being a chavista and calling yourself a chavista as a high ranking politician.
This guy should know better. I repeat: he is a politician.
I have talked to many of these guys and they feel pissed off actually if called "chavistas"...unless they are Hugo's
Oberoffiziere OR they are not politicians.
There is socialism or communism or whatever other ism without chávez.
The guy either has no notion of where he stand ideologically (and thus cannot be trusted with a high position) or he knows and he is an opportunist and cannot be trusted either. I think it is the first thing.
clarity vs personal reference
Anonymous,
Calling someone a 'mariaalejandrolopez' is essentially non descriptive of an idea.It is the kind of language use that is more suited to one's personal understanding.
Better to describe what it is exactly that you disagree with and do it with clarity.
you can say that of any adjective
kepler knew what I meant, clearly
Half of the country
Half of the country does not trust the other half. You have discovered the core of the problem!
Recent history...
I completely agree with Juan. It is the same play as with the "opposition" candidate Arias Cardenas...
Those few that do remember that, should remember how did it go for him after he "lost" the elections...
It does'nt matter if he is pure, in fact, it's better he's not
I am perfectly OK with a Henry Falcon not being part of the “Church of true oposicionistas” because the country as a whole is not and will not ever be part of that Church. What we most need is to be able to start a dialogue… a political ecumenism if you like. And so who would you prefer sitting in front of you when you have to try to put the pieces together the day after… a 100% chavista or a Henry Falcón even though he might still be a 90% chavista?
It depends on what you mean by chavista
I don't trust a chavista politician ever. I don't trust most politicians one way or the other.
One can come to agreements. Still: the agreements need to be with conditions and we need to differentiate ourselves. I know he is no pure "oppo". There are some "pure oppos" who are as bad as "pure chavistas". I am just saying we cannot exclude he will do the cardenas thing. We cannot let the guy come to that position, the same as with Baduel. Give him some plasticene, give him a sandbox, don't put him to be school coordinator.
We don't need to.
We need to do our homework. Votes will go here and there. If we do well our homework, more will go in the direction we want.
Do you realize people talk all the time in Venezuela about "being chavista" without referring to what that is?
We need to move people a little bit to think what that actually means.
This Little Light of Mine
I'm not going to comment on Henry Falcon as a candidate or politician. I don't know enough to do so responsibly. But Celia Flore's comment that people shouldn't get uppity ideas that they can shine their own light really hit me in the gut. As I've gotten used to Chavista rhetoric over the years I tend to ignore most of it, but I had a definite physical reaction to this one. For someone who grew up singing "This little light of mine, I'm gonna let it shine." as an article of faith, and who believes deep down that everyone has the obligation as well as the opportunity to s shine their own light, Doña Celia has gone beyond the pale.
Doesn't this look familiar?
If it is true that this is a ploy, and I think that it is, then isn't this really just Chavez taking notes from Vladimir Putin - that Falcon is the functional equivalent of Dmitry Medvedev?
As we have seen in Russia, you can get many miles politically about keeping everybody wavering in uncertainty between believing in his softer, more open promises and the looming shadow of the real dictator.
wow, i really don't get some
wow, i really don't get some of the comments here, now there's no opposition but only the lideres from mesa de unidad and the political parties, and all it takes is a chavista to take on the votes of the chavistas to get rid of chavez... interesting.
i guess ill better get a seat in one of those Pentecostals or evangelicals churches, and wait for this messiah as they wait for the end of the world.
It turns out that, the half of the country that's been voting for opposition candidate aren't really oppose to chavez but under some sort of spell from the caudillos from the opposition. and they all have been waiting for a chavista sin chavez to take on the government and continues this revolution without el mesmo. neat.
i find it hard to believe you people believe that, half of the people in this country opposes chavez policies, and that makes me, and all of us part of the opposition, no matter who the leaders of the political opposition are.
and Falcon, is not opposes to those things of chavismo, we opposes to, how is he ever going to have any sort of significance is he represent the same thing we opposes, by winning over chavez territories? please... the only chance he could have is by attracting opposition votes, he did it once in lara, but it wasnt cause he was the brilliant public administrator people here seems to believe he is, he got all those votes cause the alternative was an old crapped esqueleto calle alcantara, throw him a better opposition candidate and his win wouldn't been that great.
He's a nobody. he has absolutely no chance of winning anything, at least in the state where there's really an opposition, like Zulia or tachira, he will never grab the votes of el este de caracas or valencia, so how is he going to become that messiah? by taking away votes from chavez, all of them? give me a break.
He only means one thing for the 'opposition to chavez: me and all of us that opposes him, and that is that he could divide them, and make things easier for us to win. but he will never represent anything else more than that, because hes no outsider, he is a chavista and his ideology is the same one that we are oppose to.
to JC from Firepigette :the perfect ploy
JC,
Great post.
This ploy could even be a way for Chavez to get a majority in the next congressional elections.By setting up the PPT as the alternative for "Chavismo without Chavez ", many of the votes that Chavez has lost at this moment could be recovered.The PPT would be seen as an apparent alternative to Chavez for those who want to express their discontent,while still supporting " el proceso";but there are no policy differences at all. After the elections they would stay in the Chavez coalition and deny the opposition the possibility of a victory.
How can you really call someone a dissident if he is only leaving one party in the Chavez coalition to join another one ?
The new option would be presented as a " kosher" opposition, uncontaminated by 4th republic influences.There may even be some who were thinking of voting for the opposition but who would now be tempted to vote for this new " wave of the future".
The irony is that Henri Falcon is still calling Chavez "El Lider del Proyecto".
I agree Juan it looks like a
I agree Juan it looks like a ploy executed quite well!!Pump in style advanced