When numbers attack
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Last week, the Chávez-friendly polling firm IVAD published its latest survey. The numbers are devastating for the government.
While 48% of Venezuelans would like Chávez to end his term in 2012 and make way for someone else, a full 26% want him out of office ... this year. Only 11% of Venezuelans want to see him govern until 2021.
People's self-identification with chavismo is at an all-time low. A full 41% of people surveyed identified themselves as "not chavista," while only 29% identified themselves as "chavista." 23% of them identified with neither chavista nor "not chavista".
Close to 40% of Venezuelans blame the government for the electrical crisis. But close to 60% disapprove of the government's handling of the crisis.
The percentage of people who think the country's situation is positive (including those who think it's moderately positive) is 35%. The percentage who think the country's situation is negative is 62%. A full 42% think the country's situation is either "bad" or "very bad." 54% of Venezuelans have little to no confidence on the President.
Is the opposition poised to reap the benefits of this disaster? Somewhat.
Its numbers are not great, but they are much better than they had been.
For example, 50% of Venezuelans think the opposition has a plan for the country, versus 41% who think they do not. A full 59.6% of Venezuelans think the work of the Mesa de Unidad is positive (including those who think it's moderately positive).
On the other hand, Venezuelans are evenly split on the opposition's work on behalf of the country, with 49% labeling it "positive to moderately positive," and 45% labeling it "negative to moderately negative."
Interestingly, voting intention for September 26th is split three ways. 29% expressed a desire to vote for the opposition candidate, 28% prefer to vote for the chavista candidate, and a whopping 29% prefer to vote for an "independent" option. If you add the "opposition" and "independent" options to the opposition (a big if), chavismo is in for a crushing 2-to-1 defeat in terms of votes.
But chavismo's problems with numbers don't stop there. Yesterday we learned that in 2009, GDP shrunk by 3.3%. Compare this to the 2.4% dip in the US GDP the same year, and Chávez's assurances that the world's crisis would not touch Venezuela "with a petal or a hair" seem downright laughable.
The fact is the economy that had "de-linked" itself from capitalism, that was "armored" against financial turmoil ... has taken a worse hit than the center of capitalism, and continues to be mired in recession while the US is growing briskly again.
In light of these disastrous results, the predictions of chavismo's favorite economists, the CEPR and Mark Weisbrot, border on professional malpractice.
In 2009, Weisbrot predicted that the government was "unlikely to suffer a forced devaluation in the foreseeable future," that "Venezuela's inflation [was] likely to continue falling in the near future," and that thanks to "healthy" foreign reserves, Venezuela would not have to face "the kinds of economic troubles that currently plague the United States."
Wrong on all counts. Weisbrot should be fired with a whistle.
Finally, after years of mismanagement, a deep recession, and an unending electricity crisis, Venezuelan voters are turning on Chávez.
As Chávez himself said late last year: it's a perfect storm alright ... for the government.
Kepler
Francisco Toro
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independent?
The polling for the Asamblea elections will get a lot more accurate when voters are asked to choose between the actual candidates in their circuito.
Most of us like to think of ourselves as "independent" -- but in reality, people who will not under any circumstances support Chavez and his candidates are in the "opposition".
consistent
The 29% chavista figure is consistent with what others have said over the years for the hard-core Chavistas.
Boludo Tejano
Chavista core
Yes, the chavista core is still there, but that seems to be all Chavez has left.
Si pues
Agreed, that's what the numbers seem to say.
BT
Pollmageddon
Man, those are some bad numbers for 'em. I mean awful.
In September, the government will have the motive, the opportunity and the capacity to cheat. These numbers suggest they will have the necessity to cheat as well.
Our goal? Raise the price they pay for cheating.
Mad tweeting
Quico is live tweeting Chavez's cadena, and he seems to have gone mad. Oh, wait... it's Chavez the one who's gone mad.
http://twitter.com/CaracasChron
"Close to 40% of Venezuelans
"Close to 40% of Venezuelans blame the government for the electrical crisis."
What the hell do the other 60% of us blame it on? Past administrations? El Nino?
Nanjara . . .
We really have to come to grips with the fact that we're every bit as daft as the Gringo heartland (who voted GWB into office -TWICE). Clearly, the bulk of our problems are the direct result of the last decade of wrong action and inaction.
Juancho
These polls are the last
These polls are the last thing the opposition should be looking at.
They need to keep grinding on and grinding away at Chavez and his flunkies, and not look at another poll until September 27th.
OT: It took me forever to finish that maze JC. Next time make it bigger!
For the opposition polls win elections!
Yes, let all opposition rejoice at these devastating poll numbers for chavismo. Yes, 100% of the ni ni's will vote against the PSUV as Nagel surmises. However you spin it can you really see chavismo losing more than 50 seats in the AN or even more?
I'll say it again - get out on the street and work for the votes. Neither IVAD nor Schemel will do it for you.
John (Evers)
Thanks John! I am finally
Thanks John! I am finally feeling better now that you have given us a strategy to win. Appreciate it, couldn't have done it without you pal!
Seriously John, what makes you think the opposition don't realize that polls are just polls, and can never substitute actual voting?
You may not see, or choose not to see the work being done, but it's getting done. Can it be done better? Always. Will it? TBD
This gives "No Sabe" a whole new meaning
So 74% of those surveyed want Chavez out NLT 2010. Meanwhile, about 33% or so would vote for Chavez as a candidate.
In other words, at least 7% of those surveyed are too stupid to even answer consistently.
NB: Weisbrot was right on something - Venezuela is NOT having to face "the kinds of economic troubles" the U.S. was. The problems in the U.S. were much more temporary in nature. (I still have no objection to him being fired.)
AIO
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