Outbreak of Sanity at Military Intelligence
Bogota's El Tiempo has obtained a leaked copy of the Venezuelan Military Intelligence Directorate (DIM)'s strategy vis-à-vis Colombia's presidential election. The thing is...remarkably sane. Featuring the kind of cool-headed assessment of the situation we so seldom see from the public face of the Chávez government, the document shows a DIM that's well aware there's little they can do in the short-term to affect Colombia's leadership.
Instead, it seems grimly resigned to a future Santos government, and expresses concern that Santos may strike a considerably more aggressive posture than Uribe - a concern I share. It seems to include some vague hints about a longer term strategy to gain political clout in Colombia, but it's very very far from a smoking gun.
There is, of course, always the possibility that some other, more secret bit of Military Intelligency is running cash to some candidate or another. But insofar as the document El Tiempo obtained is a true reflection of high level Venezuelan military intelligence thinking on Colombia's internal affairs, it suggests reality is, indeed, much stranger than fiction...I mean: sane, level headed chavista military spooks? Really?!
Juan Cristobal
Francisco Toro
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Santos
What makes you think Santos would take a more agressive stand towards Venezuela? His priority is trade - remember that as Minister of Commerce in the 1990s he opened up trade with Venezuela.
I agree with a Santos more agressive to Venezuela... or not.
Sorry if this comment is a bit complicated, but try to go with me for a moment...
I have to say that I remember a type of media declarations Santos made more than twice in which:
1. He counterattacked agressivly and directly Chavez.
2. Almost played with fire, and let's say sounded the drums of war against us (Venezuela).
Which I thought I little scary but really made sense since he was minister of defense.
The thing is after a couples of times, and after those media honey moons between Chavez and Uribe, (2005 and 2006) maybe some earlier also.
The whole watchdog move of Santos, starred to look more like a Good Cop - Bad Cop routine.
And after all Uribe had all the saying and last vote about any of these, Santos was second in command.
So he could and did, talk the talk, against Chavez and FARC
Which if I were a colombian citizen I had felt secure, that my gov is out there, fighting the bad guys and for the sake of the country's honor. WITHOUT REALLY going to war.
To finish,
He was more agressive as the second in command.
Because that was his job.
But as the president he couldn't have had that luxury.
So if Santos becomes presidents there is also a chance of him being more torelant.
You are correct...
Santos will certainly be more moderate as president. He is aggressive in his current role, because that is the part he is supposed to play. Every government needs its designated attack dog.
As a new president, it is much easier to ramp down the rhetoric than to ramp it up. As president, Santos will adjust his stance toward Chavez as the situation requires.
I wonder if its the Cubans
I wonder if its the Cubans leaking this info, and that it probably reflects their thinking as well.