"Un proceso que va bien"
Teodoro Petkoff's editorial today is, as usual, worth a read. In it, he takes stock of the opposition's method for deciding unity candidacies. He finds a lot to like, but takes the opportunity to slam the naysayers.
Petkoff reminds his readers the opposition umbrella group, the Mesa de Unidad, agreed that the "list" candidacies for the National Assembly should go to the parties that are strongest in each state. In other words, Primero Justicia gets Miranda, UNT gets Zulia, Copei gets Táchira, etc.
With regards to political prisoners, he says that an effort was made to place them as candidates in "sure-fire" or "close-to-sure" districts, and to avoid having them compete in a primary. That is what the Mesa has done, placing Iván Simonovis as a candidate in Baruta, Richard Blanco in El Recreo, and Gustavo Azócar in San Cristóbal.
He then proceeds to slam those who expect the rules to be changed mid-way, demanding to be placed in primo positions, or arguing that more political prisoners should be placed on the lists.
It doesn't take a genius to figure out this is a none-too-subtle swipe at Leopoldo López and Enrique Mendoza, the most vocal of the bitchin' crowd.
I've been quite adamant in my support for nationwide primaries. When that didn't happen, i expressed my disappointment but was willing to move on as long as there were rules in place that assured a somewhat orderly process.
As I understand it, what López, Mendoza and the others are proposing is a change in the rules. If they want to do that, they have to argue their point and convince the rest of the people in the Mesa - the burden of proof is on them.
But they are not doing that. Instead, they seem intent on tainting a process that, according to Petkoff, is "working well." This does everybody a disservice.
Juan Cristobal
Francisco Toro
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Leopoldo, the ultimate small thinker
Great post, Juan.
Leopoldo's attempts to wrap himself in the mantle of democracy would be laughable if he didn't take himself so seriously.
He succeeded in achieving withdrawal from legislative elections last time around.
Great, Leopoldo, you had your victory, even if Venezuelan voters and the international community thought it was anti-democratic.
But the idea that he has the moral authority to challenge a serious attempt to achieve unity candidates in a year fraught with obstacles...well, the guy takes my breath away.
Here's what happened: he reads polls. Maybe he even reads Caracas Chronicles, and he agrees with Quico's assessment that the opposition brand is toxic. I don't want that baggage, he says, after having been the quintessential opposition insider. I'm an independent! And I can prove it, by attacking the Mesa!
So transparent, so self-serving.
Political Prisoners - Nightmare Scenario...
I really don't understand how the MUD embarcated itself with this Political Prisoners' thing. It's hideous positioning, underlining the opposition's ongoing links with the aspect of the opposition normal voters hate most - the maximalist phase 2002-2004.
Besides, I really doubt it can work.
I have this nightmare scenario I keep mulling. Come September, we've won 83 seats, they've won 82...but then the TSJ rules that the 3 political prisoners were retroactively inhabilitated and can't take their seats, leaving the government with an 82-80 majority.
I don't think this is going to get these guys out of jail. And hideously insensitive though it is to say it, I'm not sure it's reasonable political strategy either.
Embarcated?
Embarcated?
A new CC classic!
embarcated! lol
The point of using the political prisoners
Is to make sure the international newspapers constantly refer to them "political prisoners trying to run for office". That's it. No one is under the delusion that they'll be allowed to run, let alone be allowed to win. They're just there to make sure the government is forced to talk about them to the international press.
"Porque se lo ganaron" - they think
I agree. I think they got into supporting those guys because 1) the wives of said prisoners had some good connections and 2) because Venezuelans tend to use in a very cheap way the "martyr" thing (since Bolívar kicked the bucket before getting to the boat on his way to Europe)
Look at Julio Rivas in Valencia. When the carajito got into the meeting last time with his pals and started to throw punches around, he kept yelling como una loca "yo me lo gané, yo he estado en la calle"
(I deserved , I have been on the streets)
God, the guy has done nothing special: thousands of others have been to the streets and quite some have spent a day or two in prison. He cannot speak, he hasn't presented any ideas, he hasn't been doing real work, he is just a face that has come up in Globovisión.
The wives of the prisoners are using the guilty complex for getting their husbands free. The husbands, as most Venezuelans, want to be the next Bolívares.
They think they have earned it and they play the tear-jerkers.
I have the same nightmare
Really, do they really think they can pull that one off? And the idea that is to gain exposure I really don't buy it, and if they are doing it for that reason is even worse. They are risking a lot... not that I would not want them free, but a post in the Asamblea should be as marramucia proof as possible and that is already very difficult...
Historic fuck you to Lula
BTW, Juan C., you're the only one picking up on the front page editorial rather than on the inside-page rhetorical hand grenade Teo launched at Lula...bien hecho!
Lomito to the base
This whole political-prisoner scheme seems to me like it's a desperate attempt to gain legitimacy with the base at the expense of actually electing people with ideas on how to legislate. It may be good politics, but it's bad policy, bad for getting our message out to Ninis. In fact, it may even be bad for the political prisoners, if in the end we end up not winning the AN thanks to this (as Quico has pointed out).
Call me a cynic, but I doubt "selecting candidates who cannot campaign" can be considered good strategy toward winning the AN elections.
Who will vote because of those prisoners? Their relatives
I cannot think of absolutely anyone who will now go to vote because those prisoners are in the list and would not do it otherwise if it is not for some of their relatives.
I think there may be people who won't go to vote precisely because of those prisoners.
1) those prisoners are not in a position to campaign and TALK ABOUT THEIR IDEAS
2) those prisoners are seen by some as people with blood in their hands or otherwise who are guilty of something
So: it is definitely counterproductive to have those guys on the list.
To the base? Which base are we talking about?
Juan, what percentage of the population are you talking about?
Is the base part of the eternal 30% of those who call themselves opposition as we do? I cannot think of anyone in that "base" who would not go if the names are not there...
Even María Alejandra López would go.
But now we are putting off people and we are increasing the risk of losing more seats as if we could afford that!
Don't underestimate the power of emotions
Venezuela voters are emotional. Whatever you may think of Ivan Simonovis et al., you would be hard-pressed to find an opposition-minded voter who doesn't feel sorry for them, who would feel kind of good voting for them.
In the end, that's a powerful emotion, more powerful to drag you to the polls than, say, convincing you to go vote for Pablo Medina...
They are emotional but who would go because of those
prisoners and only or primarily because of them?
I doubt more than a hundred voters. Many of the Maria Alejandra type would go willy-nilly.
And we may have better candidates than a Pablo Medina, candidates that would bring votes from the nibs.
I agree with the premise that
I agree with the premise that it is risky to go forward with the candidacy of these political prisoners, for the various reasons pointed out so far.
That being said, I have had occasion to relate to Simonovis on both a personal and professional level (on the right end of the law, mind you!)
In his specific case, he would be an incredible asset anywhere you put him to work. You would be hard pressed to find a more dedicated indivivual that wants to serve his country.
Whether his presence in the Asamblea would be beneficial I have no doubt. But if it were up to me, he'd go right back to doing what he loves best, police work.