Overcoming Incongruence
For much of the last eleven years, one of the hardest-to-miss themes in the Chávez era has been the incongruence between the residual bits of liberal democracy in our political life and Chávez's obvious, fawning admiration for every tin-pot dictator who came his way, from Ahmadinejad and the drug-addict who runs Lybia, to the child molester who runs Nicaragua, the various bits of post-authoritarian detritus hanging on for dear life in what was once the Soviet block, most notably, of course, the Brothers Grim in Havana.
This mismatch never seemed likely to be sustainable: Chávez's undisguised admiration for dictatorial ways of governing only made sense in someone determined to replicate them in his own country sooner or later.
Which is why there's such a sense of the other shoe dropping in Venezuela these days. We always figured this sort of thing had to be what he had in mind. You don't rant on and on ad nauseam about the virtues of a particular way of governing unless you ultimately intend to replicate it. It was obvious all along.
It's just that Chávez grasps the value of gradualism. And so gradualism is what we've gotten...we've become gradually, very gradually stewed frog.
Yum.
Kepler
Francisco Toro
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anyone know
who is that lady in the white uniform? and what she looked like before she got all that work done?
I second that....
I knew I wasn't going to be the only raspicuí wondering about the lady in white.
Just think what we have to put up with...
...just because Esteban has a thing for military uniforms.
Geez, frogs are more intelligent than Venezuelans!
I just read the Wikipedia article: frogs do jump out of the kettle before it gets too hot:
FROGS VERSUS VENEZUELANS
Venezuelans don't. They dance and drink until well-cooked.
Actually
What I really want to know is why was Brigitte Nielsen walking along with Chávez and Lukashenko
hah... I knew I could not be
hah... I knew I could not be the only one.
but.. who is she?
Looks like she got rank?
El último grito de la moda militar
High heels... Hair reflections...
Take that, Gaddafi!
But what about the other?
Looks like navy captain's bars, to my untrained eye. Unless that curlicue on the fourth bar means admiral? Not enough bars for that, I think, though even captain seems excessive at her apparent age. Given the red boina, probably from some special unit that has absolutely nothing to do with ships. Plus, is it me, or does her profile really look like Hugo?
On the other hand (and side of the photo), that woman in red is downright scary. And has probably had far more work done, as well.
Lukashenko's Wikipedia page
Aleksandr Lukashenko's wikipedia page looks like a mix of Chavez's greatest hits and chavismo 2.0. Constitutional referenda, packing the courts, a Parliament without any opposition, state control of most of the economy, it's all in there.
What surprised me (or, I guess, not) the most about the Belarus economy was this: "Economically, Belarus grew under Lukashenko, but much of this growth was due to Russian oil which was imported at below market prices and then refined before being sold on to Europe."
It doesn't take a sleuth to know where those 80,000 barrels of oil per day that we are selling to Lukashenko will end up going - they will be sold at a discount, refined in Belorussian refineries, and sold at market prices all over Eastern Europe. We will end up subsidizing the incomes of the Minsk fat-cats handling this deal and making a euro, just because Chavez needs a new pal. Nice.
Belorus
It is hard to compare other regions with Venezuela: Venezuela is almost all about oil. Still, here it goes:
The Soviet Union opened up in the most stupid way, selling out state property to well-connected and opening up of the economy to the West without any preparation (as stupidly proposed by fundamentalists from the West). The disaster was total in Russia. Luka avoided that in Belarus to some extent, he also had this deal with the Russians which, as you said, help him survive the times. A small nation with well-trained skilled workers can do better than Venezuelans in emergencies like that.
People have seen salaries garanteed in Belarus, unlike Russia in the nineties, they have seen stability.
There are a couple of extra things at play: the vast majority of Belorussians speak Russian (or Russian and Belorussian) only and although they can get out (provided they get a EU visa or else and have the money), they are rather isolated (to a great extent most Venezuelans are in a similar situation). Luka lets those who do not like the system go away. He hopes all who disagree get out of the country, actually.
The opposition hasn't known how to penetrate outside Minsk. Oppo leaders sometimes use the Belorussian nationalistic trump: Luka does not speak well Belorussian, you will see many oppos use Belorussian more rather to make a point, but then it is hard to play that card: Belarussians in general speak mostly Russian, so that is not an issue and actually
the protest groups have been too linked to US-wannabes who "just want blue Jeans"
He hopes all who disagree get out of the country, actually.
Sounds familiar...
Aye, it is
There are some differences, but also some common issues.
It is normal in any authoritarian regime where you cannot murder people like that or put them in concentration camps.
What I have wondered is if crime in Venezuela is also a tool some chavistas are using (a tool not used in Belarus)...but that would be too much. Still, Vincent says that could be the case.
Thank you, Kep
Good account.
I have a friend in Minsk, who has a friend in Pinsk
..they will be sold at a discount, refined in Belorussian refineries, and sold at market prices all over Eastern Europe. We will end up subsidizing the gas purchases of a little old lady in Warsaw, just because Chavez needs a new pal.
Trivia item: as Warsaw is not in Belarus, but in Poland, did you not mean a little old lady in a city in Belarus, such as Minsk or Pinsk ?
Boludo Tejano
Belarus is selling to Poland
and other countries around. See my post. They are mostly just resendig Russian oil, but they also have contracts to sell derivatives. If they get some oil from the Venezuelans, they can use some Russian oil to create the derivatives or else that they sell to neighbouring countries, like Poland and Lithuania.
Market prices or not to Eastern Europe
Yes, Belarus would be selling Venezuelan oil to Poland and other countries in the area. No disagreement there. Juan Cristobal and I make the assumption that Belarus sells to Eastern Europe at market prices, with the subsidy and profit remaining in Belarus. If the little old lady in Warsaw is consuming oil bought from Belarus at market prices, she is not being subsidized. Perhaps we are mistaken about Belarus's selling to its neighbors at market prices.
IIRC, when the Soviet Union was Fidel's sugar daddy, it sold oil to Cuba at discounted prices, some of which Cuba sold to its neighbors at market prices. Profit for Socialist Cuba. Which is how I see the Belarus-Venezuela connection.
Boludo Tejano
See your point
You're right. The ones being subsidized are the fat-cat politicos in Minsk doing the transactions. I'll modify. My apologies to Polish little old ladies.
Exactly
My hunch tells me the oil being refined in Belarus is not for the domestic market per se. After all, there are only 9 million people in Belarus, so the market is small. As Kepler said, it's likely they're simply re-selling the refined oil to countries in Eastern Europe.
Machanka in the Minsk Style
That's what we get in return. Quite literally, a guiso.
Looks delish!
Mike E.
Pfui Teufel
Russian oil gets through Belarus
to Western Europe. Belarussians get some dosh, but the Russians are getting more difficult by the day. Belarussians have delays in delivering derivatives to neighbouring countries. If they get Venezuelan oil to Rotterdam or Amsterdam or somewhere else, they can send less Russian oil from their own country to Western Europe and use it instead for reprocessing, etc.
Belarussians are also going to build 100 000 houses in Aragua, at least they announced that. I wonder if the 5000 or so that had been announced two years ago are built now.
In any case: they are getting some Venezuelan money Venezuelan engineers and providers should be getting.
The woman in the uniform
Look at the way she places her feet when she walks. The foot is placed exactly directly in front of the other. When done at a normal walking pace, this gives the hip swing that you see on the catwalk.
That is not the way a person with military training walks (or most other people, for that matter). That is the way a beauty contestant or a model walks. So, the public message is how modern and liberal Chavez is, but it is nothing but window dressing. I suspect that if someone looks into it, we would find that she is not even in the Venezuelan military, but was a model hired to be in the show.
Well, if I read her uniform
Well, if I read her uniform correctly she would be a Captain (N), that is Colonel equivalent in the Air Force or Army.
I don't know how advanced the Venezuelan Armed Forces are when it comes to female officers but there could surely not be so many women at that rank.
Bingo
I thought so, too, when I saw the legs working next to the red carpet as though it were a catwalk. Puuura pantalla. (Business as usual in Venezuela -- que triste.) There's no way military-trained people are going to walk in this manner.
She the very model of a modern
Chavisimo general.
/Look Ima idea guy, I don't do lyrics.
For those wondering..
.. the lady in white most probably is Rear-Admiral Carmen Teresa de Maniglia (Captain at the time, equivalent to Coronel)
http://www.noticiascentro.com/noticias/detalle/2859
- First woman to reach Rear Admiral.
- Wife of former Minister of Defense Orlando Maniglia.
- Former National Treasurer.
- Several other stints at the "Despacho de la Presidencia"
- Long time friend of Adan Chavez
Not even remotely similar
The woman in the photos of Rear-Admiral Carmen Teresa de Maniglia doesn't resemble the blond in the photo above in even the slightest way.
Agreed
No, not even close. But Roy, good catch on the walking. I noted that, but couldn't really put my finger on (no double entendre intended) why that bothered me. I guess she didn't earn her bars the old-fashioned way.
AIO
Almost all Venezuelan women walk like that!
The "rear"-admiral appeared on a video about that meeting in El Universal yesterday. She was on the back talking most of the time on her mobile.
Although she is definitely not my type, perhaps that was Hugo's way of trying to make up for this (see from s. 23)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlyAJhh8iAs
That's where Venezuela's petrodollars go, instead of going to
Venezuela
link on pupils without books or desks or actually school!
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_rZbKKDohSyc/S5vIhEYZTiI/AAAAAAAABMs/KfF_3xmFwl...
Maybe almost all
But I'd think a few months of marching drills at boot camp would take it out of them pretty quickly. So it doesn't make sense (to me) that a career military woman, with appropriate training, would walk like that.
My mistake
you're right. I thought that was an old picture, but since it's recent then it cannot be the Rear Admiral since the rank doesn't match.
I have no idea who that is.