Katy & Quico say: Funny how there always seems to be “just one more poll”.
Consultores 21 carried out 1500 in-home interviews between Nov. 26th and Nov. 30 in the country’s nine largest cities (margin of error=2.6%) and compared the results with an earlier poll of 840 voters in those same nine cities (margin of error=3.5%). So this poll is not directly comparable to the previous C21 poll we reported, which was based on a nationwide (i.e., Urban+Rural) sample.
Once again, the momentum is all on one side:
It’s not just that more people are planning to vote No than just a couple of weeks ago, it’s that more people believe the No side will win. That conviction is important when it comes to turning out NiNis.
Nonetheless, the all-urban sample tends to overstate the No vote. Based on previous data about the Urban-Rural split, Consultores 21 corrects their results. They then go out on a limb and project a nationwide outcome: 55.7% for the “No” and 44.4% for the “Sí”.Caracas Chronicles is 100% reader-supported. Support independent Venezuelan journalism by making a donation.