Geeking out with Excel

Quico says: Here’s another way to slice yesterday’s results: how did Chavista candidates do in comparison with the “Sí” vote from a year ago ago?

Click to enlarge.

Turns out Chavista candidates outscored the government’s 2007 referendum results in 12 states. They underperformed the referendum results in 10 states and Distrito Capital.

The first thing that jumps out at you is that, while we didn’t win anywhere rural, we made steady gains throughout the llanos. In fact, we made up ground in Cojedes, Guarico, Barinas, Portuguesa, and Apure compared to where we were a year ago. Yaracuy – a special case, considering the Lapi family saga – is the only Plains state where we lost ground.

But what’s really interesting is that three out of the four states where chavistas outperformed the Sí side by the biggest margins are places where very popular chavista candidates got re-elected: Monagas, Anzoátegui and, most of all, Lara, where Henry Falcón got a massive 24 point edge over the “Sí” tally. Why did those three do so much better yesterday than the “Sí” did a year ago? Maybe because, a year ago, all three of them campaigned for the “No” side!

What does that tell you? That if Chávez is thinking of bringing up another constitutional reform to enshrine indefinite re-election, he’s going to end up facing the same problem he had last year: popular incumbent PSUV governors mobilizing their voters against him.