Maybe You Really Can Forecast The Election Without Circuit Polls

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For an analyst, the big frustration this election cycle is that we don’t have available the type of circuit-by-circuit polling widely seen as the gold standard in an election like this. But armed with the expanding data trove in the Swing-o-Meter I asked myself: is it really true that it’s nonsense to try to forecast a National Result on the basis of National Polls?

Lets see:

Again, bear in mind that these charts are slightly visually misleading in that each line represents a district, not a seat.












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