The Opposition’s Path to 83 Seats in the National Assembly

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This is what Victory on 26S looks like. The map shows the Opposition’s likeliest path to an overall majority in the National Assembly: If we take all the blue circuits, we win.

The New Forecasting Tool projects that, on 52.25%, we would take all the blue places. The circuits that we would take by more than 5% in this scenario are shown in darker blue, the circuits we would take by less than 5% are shown in light blue. Similarly, the circuits where chavismo’s advantage is forecast at less than 5% are shown in light light red, while the circuits where PSUV has a comfortable advantage are rojo, rojito.

In efect, you can think of the light colored circuits as "swing" (or marginal) districts. 

Click on any given circuit to see the number of seats it elects, the main side’s candidates, and the results there in the 2007 referendum, the 2008 gubernatorial elections, and the 2009 referendum.

Or click through to GoogleMaps for a much closer look. 

Of course, how likely a scenario like this really is I’ll leave for you to judge. We’d have to win in places like Tucupita which, however much statistical forecasting may tell us we’re competitive in, common sense suggests are out of reach.

After the power crisis, a clean sweep of Bolivar and Anzoátegui States no longer looks so crazy. But still, this map is nobody’s idea of easy. If you click through the light blue places, they tend to be circuits where we were once competitive – long ago, in 2007 – but that have seen moved far back into the government column. With a big enough National Swing, nothing is impossible. Veremos. 

One caveat: most of the circuits are drawn precisely. But data limitations mean big city circuits in Maracaibo, Valencia, Caracas and Barquisimeto are approximative, not exact. 

ps: Like the map? Let’s help it go viral!

Tweet or Facebook it using this link: http://bit.ly/victoria26S

 

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