Oppo Targets: Put Your Dato in Context

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Through the course of the day, you’re sure to hear a number of rumors about results in individual circuits. Maybe you’ll hear that a Quick Count has the opposition winning Anzoateguí 1 (El Tigre) with 54% of the vote…but is that good news or bad news?

The list after the jump tells you the share of the vote the opposition would need in each circuit to remain on track to win a simple majority.

In fact, our target for El Tigre is 56.5% of the vote – so if you hear a rumor that we’re winning it with 54% of the vote, that’s actually bad news for us: it means we’re not on track to win an overall majority.

Alternatively, if you hear we got whomped 65%-35% in Apure 1, you should smile! Anything above 32.8% in that constituency is an encouraging result for us.

We should be clear, with this map, and these rules, an outright majority is a very long shot. Crazier things have happened, though…

(Caveat: As usual with swing-o-meter based estimation methods, we don’t really deal with PPT here, so the numbers for Lara and Guárico – where PPT is strong – are more or less gibberish.)

Circuit

MUD Target

Where are we talking about?

Amazonas List 38.1%  
Amazonas 1 38.1% Circuito Único
Anzoategui List 55.8%  
Anzoategui 1 56.5% Sur de Anzoátegui – El Tigre
      (Two seats)
Anzoategui 2 50.7% Oeste de Anzoategui – Anaco
Anzoategui 3 54.2% Barcelona – Costa
     (Two seats)
Anzoategui 4 61.0% Puerto La Cruz – Lecherias
Apure List 42.4%  
Apure 1 32.8% Apure Oeste
Apure 2 40.2% Apure Este
Apure 3 52.0% San Fernando
Aragua List 49.9%  
Aragua 1 55.5% Maracay
      (Two seats)
Aragua 2 44.9% Turmero – Santa Rita
      (Two seats)
Aragua 3 49.2% La Victoria
Aragua 4 45.7% Villa de Cura
Barinas List 39.3%  
Barinas 1 41.1% Barinas – Este
      (Two seats)
Barinas 2 36.1% Barinas – Oeste
      (Two seats)
Bolivar List 51.2%  
Bolivar 1 51.9% Ciudad Bolivar
      (Two seats)
Bolivar 2 50.1% Ciudad Guayana
      (Three seats)
     
Bolivar 3 53.4% El Callao – Upata – Gran Sabana
Carabobo List 54.0%  
     
Carabobo 1 49.4% Puerto Cabello
Carabobo 2 49.8% Guacara – Diego Ibarra
Carabobo 3 65.9% Norte de Valencia – Naguanagua
Carabobo 4 45.3% Los Guayos – Sureste de Carabobo
Carabobo 5 50.6% Sur de Valencia
      (Three seats)
     
Cojedes List 44.7%  
Cojedes 1 47.4% San Carlos
Cojedes 2 42.3% Tinaquillo
DC List 53.0%  
     
DC 1 47.6% Junquito – Sucre – La Pastora
      (Two seats)
DC 2 51.1% 23 de Enero – San Juan +
DC 3 69.0% El Recreo – Candelaria +
DC 4 51.1% El Valle – Coche – Sta. Rosalia
DC 5 49.1% Paraiso – La Vega – Antimano
      (Two seats)
Delta List 44.3%  
Delta Amacuro 1 51.6% Tucupita
Delta Amacuro 2 33.4% Resto del Delta
Falcon List 52.0%  
Falcon 1 52.9% Oeste de Falcon
Falcón 2 48.4% Punto Fijo
Falcón 3 56.4% Coro
Falcón 4 50.9% Este de Falcón
Guárico List 40.0%  
Guárico 1 39.7% Oeste de Guárico
Guárico 2 36.4% Norte de Guárico
Guarico 3 44.3% Este de Guarico
Lara List 47.8%  (NOT counting PPT) 
Lara 1 46.7% Barquisimeto 1
      (Three seats)
     
Lara 2 39.9% Carora
      (Two seats)
Lara 3 59.2% Barquisimeto 2
      (Two seats)
Merida List 54.0%  
Merida 1 48.5% El Vigía
Merida 2 48.6% Noreste de Mérida
Mérida 3 63.5% Mérida (Ciudad)
Mérida 4 52.1% Éjido – Sur de Mérida
Miranda List 56.1%  
     
Miranda 1 59.8% Altos Mirandinos
Miranda 2 85.1% Chacao – Baruta – El Hatillo
      (Two seats)
Miranda 3 63.1% Petare
Miranda 4 46.9% Guarenas – Guatire
      (Two seats)
Miranda 5 34.6% Barlovento – Higuerote
Miranda 6 32.8% Charallave – Valles del Tuy
Miranda 7 29.1% Santa Teresa del Tuy
Monagas List 42.3%  
Monagas 1 43.2% Maturin
      (Three seats)
     
Monagas 2 40.6% Oeste de Monagas
Nueva Esparta ListList 59.8%  
Nueva Esparta 1 57.8% Oeste de Margarita
Nueva Esparta 2 61.7% Porlamar – Este de Margarita
Portuguesa List 41.4%  
Portuguesa 1 43.8% Guanare
Portuguesa 2 36.7% Turén – Guanarito
Portuguesa 3 41.1% Acarigua
Portuguesa 4 42.9% Araure
Sucre List 57.5%  
Sucre 1 56.2% Carúpano – Araya
Sucre 2 48.7% Este de Sucre – Paria
Sucre 3 61.7% Cumaná
     
Tachira List 59.5%  
Táchira 1 54.2% Rubio – Frontera
Táchira 2 55.8% Noroeste de Táchira – Montaña Baja
Táchira 3 51.4% La Grita – Noreste de Táchira – Montaña Alta
Táchira 4 60.1% Táriba – Sur de Táchira
Táchira 5 70.1% Sán Cristobal
Trujillo List 39.6%  
Trujillo 1 37.0% Boconó
Trujillo 2 45.7% Valera
Trujillo 3 32.2% Noroeste de Trujillo
Vargas List 47.2%  
Vargas 1 47.2% At Large
      (Two seats)
Yaracuy List 51.7%  
Yaracuy 1 44.1% Chivacoa
Yaracuy 2 57.5% Cocorote – Centro-Oeste de Yaracuy
Yaracuy 3 54.5% San Felipe – Nirgua
Zulia List 61.4%  
     
Zulia 1 59.9% Machiques
Zulia 2 57.8% Jesus E. Losada – Cañada de Urd.
Zulia 3 63.3% Mara – Guajira
Zulia 4 59.1% Maracaibo 1
Zulia 5 60.4% Maracaibo 2
Zulia 6 48.7% Maracaibo 3
Zulia 7 55.2% Maracaibo 4
Zulia 8 76.4% Maracaibo 5
Zulia 9 75.8% San Francisco
Zulia 10 56.0% COL Norte – Cabimas
Zulia 11 62.1% COL Sur – Lagunillas
Zulia 12 58.0% Catatumbo – Sur del Lago

 

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