Oppo Targets: Put Your Dato in Context
Through the course of the day, you’re sure to hear a number of rumors about results in individual circuits. Maybe you’ll hear that a Quick Count has the opposition winning Anzoateguí 1 (El Tigre) with 54% of the vote…but is that good news or bad news?
The list after the jump tells you the share of the vote the opposition would need in each circuit to remain on track to win a simple majority.
In fact, our target for El Tigre is 56.5% of the vote – so if you hear a rumor that we’re winning it with 54% of the vote, that’s actually bad news for us: it means we’re not on track to win an overall majority.
Alternatively, if you hear we got whomped 65%-35% in Apure 1, you should smile! Anything above 32.8% in that constituency is an encouraging result for us.
We should be clear, with this map, and these rules, an outright majority is a very long shot. Crazier things have happened, though…
(Caveat: As usual with swing-o-meter based estimation methods, we don’t really deal with PPT here, so the numbers for Lara and Guárico – where PPT is strong – are more or less gibberish.)
Circuit |
MUD Target |
Where are we talking about? |
| Amazonas List | 38.1% | |
| Amazonas 1 | 38.1% | Circuito Único |
| Anzoategui List | 55.8% | |
| Anzoategui 1 | 56.5% | Sur de Anzoátegui – El Tigre |
| (Two seats) | ||
| Anzoategui 2 | 50.7% | Oeste de Anzoategui – Anaco |
| Anzoategui 3 | 54.2% | Barcelona – Costa |
| (Two seats) | ||
| Anzoategui 4 | 61.0% | Puerto La Cruz – Lecherias |
| Apure List | 42.4% | |
| Apure 1 | 32.8% | Apure Oeste |
| Apure 2 | 40.2% | Apure Este |
| Apure 3 | 52.0% | San Fernando |
| Aragua List | 49.9% | |
| Aragua 1 | 55.5% | Maracay |
| (Two seats) | ||
| Aragua 2 | 44.9% | Turmero – Santa Rita |
| (Two seats) | ||
| Aragua 3 | 49.2% | La Victoria |
| Aragua 4 | 45.7% | Villa de Cura |
| Barinas List | 39.3% | |
| Barinas 1 | 41.1% | Barinas – Este |
| (Two seats) | ||
| Barinas 2 | 36.1% | Barinas – Oeste |
| (Two seats) | ||
| Bolivar List | 51.2% | |
| Bolivar 1 | 51.9% | Ciudad Bolivar |
| (Two seats) | ||
| Bolivar 2 | 50.1% | Ciudad Guayana |
| (Three seats) | ||
| Bolivar 3 | 53.4% | El Callao – Upata – Gran Sabana |
| Carabobo List | 54.0% | |
| Carabobo 1 | 49.4% | Puerto Cabello |
| Carabobo 2 | 49.8% | Guacara – Diego Ibarra |
| Carabobo 3 | 65.9% | Norte de Valencia – Naguanagua |
| Carabobo 4 | 45.3% | Los Guayos – Sureste de Carabobo |
| Carabobo 5 | 50.6% | Sur de Valencia |
| (Three seats) | ||
| Cojedes List | 44.7% | |
| Cojedes 1 | 47.4% | San Carlos |
| Cojedes 2 | 42.3% | Tinaquillo |
| DC List | 53.0% | |
| DC 1 | 47.6% | Junquito – Sucre – La Pastora |
| (Two seats) | ||
| DC 2 | 51.1% | 23 de Enero – San Juan + |
| DC 3 | 69.0% | El Recreo – Candelaria + |
| DC 4 | 51.1% | El Valle – Coche – Sta. Rosalia |
| DC 5 | 49.1% | Paraiso – La Vega – Antimano |
| (Two seats) | ||
| Delta List | 44.3% | |
| Delta Amacuro | 51.6% | Tucupita |
| Delta Amacuro | 33.4% | Resto del Delta |
| Falcon List | 52.0% | |
| Falcon 1 | 52.9% | Oeste de Falcon |
| Falcón 2 | 48.4% | Punto Fijo |
| Falcón 3 | 56.4% | Coro |
| Falcón 4 | 50.9% | Este de Falcón |
| Guárico List | 40.0% | |
| Guárico 1 | 39.7% | Oeste de Guárico |
| Guárico 2 | 36.4% | Norte de Guárico |
| Guarico 3 | 44.3% | Este de Guarico |
| Lara List | 47.8% | (NOT counting PPT) |
| Lara 1 | 46.7% | Barquisimeto 1 |
| (Three seats) | ||
| Lara 2 | 39.9% | Carora |
| (Two seats) | ||
| Lara 3 | 59.2% | Barquisimeto 2 |
| (Two seats) | ||
| Merida List | 54.0% | |
| Merida 1 | 48.5% | El Vigía |
| Merida 2 | 48.6% | Noreste de Mérida |
| Mérida 3 | 63.5% | Mérida (Ciudad) |
| Mérida 4 | 52.1% | Éjido – Sur de Mérida |
| Miranda List | 56.1% | |
| Miranda 1 | 59.8% | Altos Mirandinos |
| Miranda 2 | 85.1% | Chacao – Baruta – El Hatillo |
| (Two seats) | ||
| Miranda 3 | 63.1% | Petare |
| Miranda 4 | 46.9% | Guarenas – Guatire |
| (Two seats) | ||
| Miranda 5 | 34.6% | Barlovento – Higuerote |
| Miranda 6 | 32.8% | Charallave – Valles del Tuy |
| Miranda 7 | 29.1% | Santa Teresa del Tuy |
| Monagas List | 42.3% | |
| Monagas 1 | 43.2% | Maturin |
| (Three seats) | ||
| Monagas 2 | 40.6% | Oeste de Monagas |
| Nueva Esparta List | 59.8% | |
| Nueva Esparta | 57.8% | Oeste de Margarita |
| Nueva Esparta | 61.7% | Porlamar – Este de Margarita |
| Portuguesa List | 41.4% | |
| Portuguesa 1 | 43.8% | Guanare |
| Portuguesa 2 | 36.7% | Turén – Guanarito |
| Portuguesa 3 | 41.1% | Acarigua |
| Portuguesa 4 | 42.9% | Araure |
| Sucre List | 57.5% | |
| Sucre 1 | 56.2% | Carúpano – Araya |
| Sucre 2 | 48.7% | Este de Sucre – Paria |
| Sucre 3 | 61.7% | Cumaná |
| Tachira List | 59.5% | |
| Táchira 1 | 54.2% | Rubio – Frontera |
| Táchira 2 | 55.8% | Noroeste de Táchira – Montaña Baja |
| Táchira 3 | 51.4% | La Grita – Noreste de Táchira – Montaña Alta |
| Táchira 4 | 60.1% | Táriba – Sur de Táchira |
| Táchira 5 | 70.1% | Sán Cristobal |
| Trujillo List | 39.6% | |
| Trujillo 1 | 37.0% | Boconó |
| Trujillo 2 | 45.7% | Valera |
| Trujillo 3 | 32.2% | Noroeste de Trujillo |
| Vargas List | 47.2% | |
| Vargas 1 | 47.2% | At Large |
| (Two seats) | ||
| Yaracuy List | 51.7% | |
| Yaracuy 1 | 44.1% | Chivacoa |
| Yaracuy 2 | 57.5% | Cocorote – Centro-Oeste de Yaracuy |
| Yaracuy 3 | 54.5% | San Felipe – Nirgua |
| Zulia List | 61.4% | |
| Zulia 1 | 59.9% | Machiques |
| Zulia 2 | 57.8% | Jesus E. Losada – Cañada de Urd. |
| Zulia 3 | 63.3% | Mara – Guajira |
| Zulia 4 | 59.1% | Maracaibo 1 |
| Zulia 5 | 60.4% | Maracaibo 2 |
| Zulia 6 | 48.7% | Maracaibo 3 |
| Zulia 7 | 55.2% | Maracaibo 4 |
| Zulia 8 | 76.4% | Maracaibo 5 |
| Zulia 9 | 75.8% | San Francisco |
| Zulia 10 | 56.0% | COL Norte – Cabimas |
| Zulia 11 | 62.1% | COL Sur – Lagunillas |
| Zulia 12 | 58.0% | Catatumbo – Sur del Lago |
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