PSUV edges MUD in National Popular Vote; Neither Clears 50%

My tally from CNE’s first set of official results has the government winning 5,400,132 to the MUD’s 5,311,552 in the list vote. Ignore all others, and in the two-way match-up between PSUV and MUD, the government had 50.41% of the vote and the opposition had 49.59% of the vote.

Oh, and plug 49.59% into our Legislative Election Forecasting Tool and it predicts 66 seats for the opposition. So far, the CNE is giving us 61 seats, with seven seats still to be declared. If we get 3 of those, I’ll have at least won the Reto Puzkas.

In relative terms, we beat our target in in Barinas, Carabobo and Miranda, but fell short everywhere else.

Update: If you include PPT in the tally, the government had about 48.9% of the vote, the opposition had 48.1, and PPT 3%. If you include all the minor parties, the government tally is down to about 48%, with all others on about 52%. That, it appears, is where the 52% figure that went around last night comes from.