Good News/Bad News


Datanalisis’s latest shows Chávez’s popularity holding steady in the wake of his cancer diagnosis, and Henrique Capriles well out ahead in the opposition primary race.

It’s a good news/bad news kind of read:

  • Good news: Capriles beats Chávez among self-described independents by better than 2-to-1.
  • Bad news: he’d still lose the race-if-it-was-held-this-Synday by a hair – 39% to 37%.
  • Good news: only 27% of poll respondents want Chávez to continue to govern for “many years to come”.
  • Bad news: 50% still like him.

In fact, I get a sense of Chávez becoming a bit of a “jarrón chino” for some voters – even some of those who revere him would prefer him out of the way.

Remarkably, there are more self-identified chavistas out there (30.7%) than people who want Chávez to stay in power for many years to come – meaning that, yes, there is such a thing as a chavista who hopes PSUV nominates someone else next year.

Hmmmmmmm…primary challenge, anyone?

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  1. I´ll say it again, Chavez passing away could be the healthiest answer for Venezuela. He is the only thing in the way of peace, even for his own people.

  2. not so sure el feto… the pesuvi rats started chewing each other to death, fighting over power when chiabe was in cuba being operated on his mysterious cancerous tumor. that´s why he had to return quickly. if he dies how do you know his dear brother adán and /or jaua who veer radically to the left in fealty to fidel, won’t take over and be even worse? the mom was in cuba pleading for adán as VP ( totally inconstitutional) and was sent packing.

    we already had a previews of the coming attractions when ojeda was disabled from his penal comitee, the rodeo weird war and pran escape, etc etc. these guys are true rads, and not even wily and politically savvy like chiabe. they would hand us over to fidel on a golden platter.

  3. Even I have to confess to liking Hugo Chavez. He is likeable. Like so many sociopaths.

    That said, his stated beliefs are almost opposite from mine.

    Let’s hope Venezuelans who still like Chavez remember that liking the guy has meant a lot of hardship for them, that he is not competent, just likeable. That as much as they like the guy, they are not going anywhere with him. That there are very obvious, concrete reasons why they want him to go no further than 2012.

    • Lobo, I am not sure all of it is irrational. Yes, he is charismatic and yes, Venezuelas suck up to “el mas vivo”. But we have to ask ourselves what has changed so much for poor Venezuelans? Crime always existed and it was pretty bad in the barrios in the 80’s after the money of the oil boom ran out. Informal jobs were normal for poor people, it has grown more now, yes, but it is not new. Garbaje and lack of infraestructure? Not new either. We see the big numbers and we understand the epic levels of incompetence and failure, but on the day to day of a regular Venezuela what is the real difference? Before they were poor without any hope of ever getting out of that situation. Now they are poor that think they might be lucky enough to win the Chavismo lottery and get a handhout. Or they are getting it in the forms of illegal retirement pensions. I think we look too much to the Misiones, but one thing that has gotten him lots of good will is the pensios of social security. Any gestor can get you fake paperwork to prove you paid to the system and in no time you start getting your monthly allowance. I know of lots of cases and tha people might not all vote for him, but they will say they like him, “because at least with him I now receive my pensionsita”
      It sucks pero es el pais que tenemos…

      • Some persons have got something good out of the Chavez government, and some persons have very rational (if selfishly so) reasons to support him. That could be said of even the most monstrous dictators. Somebody has to support him.

        The strange thing is that he is still liked, while the living standards of most have dropped out of sight. As if people didn’t connect their lives generally becoming hell with his incompetence. As if they didn’t realize that the incompetent and corrupt officials were appointed by him. As if they didn’t realize that the incompetent/corrupt mayors and governors were elected because he held their hands up and recommended them.

    • It’s a completely irrational thing that has nothing to do with objective facts.

      Sociopaths of every stripe would have it much harder or would be downright logically impossible to exist if everybody saw them as they are. If they weren’t extremely likeable, nobody would trust them. Game over, they would be stopped for good at their own beginnings. But there’s this person who is charming and who’s telling you exactly what you wanted to hear, as if they read your mind and knew what you feared and what you loved…

      • Well, I always, always disliked Chávez. I can see through him. I know the jokes.

        I know the set of mind. I disliked him before I knew what his name was as I was discussing with a friend months before when the bloody military were going to carry out their coup.
        I was repulsed when I heard his voice the first time.

        Still, I understand why millions like him and it is a depressing thing.
        Never ever underestimate people’s stupidity.
        That is just the way billions, billions think.
        They did that in Germany several decades ago. They did that in Russia for a long time, to a certain extent they do. There are people like that in every country but some countries get pretty sick during longer periods of time. Venezuela tends to be so because of a highe amount of psychopat and resentful, but there are lots of them in other places. Those other places have better protection systems as well.

        It is very telling this guy is still more popular than others. And this should give us some warning and make think if there aren’t better ways, if we cannot think of more tenable ways of making someone else, or some groups more popular even without the financial resources.

        People tend to behave like putos, putos increíbles. But perhaps there are ways not to make Chávez less popular but to focus on how to make others more so.

      • I can still mention some odd five hundred reasons why Venezuela would be better off without Hugo Chavez.

        And an equal number of reasons why Venezuela would be much better off if chavismo, Chavez’s brand of populism, the petrostate mentality and Socialism were to be deleted form Venezuelan minds, forever.

        The idea of using nationalized oil monies to direct our development is extremely appealing on the surface too. The idea of giving every poor child/adult food and an education and a job through executive fiat is as appealing as using the One Ring of Sauron. And as wrongheaded as that too. And as soul-corrupting only on a national scale.

        Beginning with him being a f*&*ing sociopath you cannot trust to tell you the time of the day, leading an army of sociopaths who themselves are not so likeable.

        Beginning with oil having been a curse and a pox on our nation, whenever it was managed by the State.

  4. He arrived home last night & says he’s 100% cured.

    Impossible on the surface.

    2 conclusions
    It was all an act – which I don’t believe
    Or it is much more serious & he’s going to try to hold things together as long as he can

      • If it is not a colon cancer, then it is probably not a prostate cancer too, using chemotherapy would be the least try and not indicated if there are no metastasis as he says. I’m thinking it could be a bladder cancer, a lesser common one, has worser survivability and is also difficult to operate (remember the alleged difficulty 6 hours op). (It is only a guess due to the lack of information).

    • I agree with you Roy,

      I was better before!!!!!!!!! I wonder though if Toro prefers to have the’ who comments’ section down where nobody sees it much for a reason.Or even the links.There are times when I go to somebodies blog just to hook onto the links because I haven’t bookmarked all the blogs I read.

      I hate to scroll down for links.

  5. Off-topic, but the new design does not convince me. Especially the date of the post takes away way too much screen real estate!

  6. More OT, Your Grace.

    Tags were nice in light blue; the low contrast against the white background and the sum of them looked like a graphic. Now with the high contrast, the sum of it looks like a scrambled bunch of words with little breathing space. Uuuglyy.

    You’ve got too many different fonts. Try reducing the number.

    In general, it’s best to use fonts with either serif (con piquitos) or sans-serif (sin piquitos, se ve más moderno).

    Now, how about re-establishing the hyperlinks on the posts that are associated with the comments.

    Agree with Sire; the reduction in real estate is not great; the date of the post distracts the eye. (Is the date THAT critical? No-o-o-o. Pues cambialo.)

    As for the photograph, I don’t see much of Caracas. Maybe you should change the name of your blog to Avila Accounts.

  7. Quico, what do you mean by “Hmmmmmmm…primary challenge, anyone?”?

    I find these poll numbers depressing. Twelve years into this nightmare and he is still at 50+ percent!!! When you add this to the idolworshipping that chavismo has become and the subservience of the armed forces to Hugo, it does not bode well for 2012. With or without Chavez.

  8. The text looks like a printed paper where the ink cartridge is going low. And in multiple browsers I’ve tried, the lower portions of letters y, p, g, for example, are cut off. Font fail.


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