Libya today, China tomorrow?

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El Mundo Economía y Negocios has a nice catch regarding Venezuela’s billion-dollar joint development fund with Libya. Signed just a year ago, partially ratified by the A.N. and published in Gaceta Oficial on December 30th 2010, our bilateral development fund with Libya is undeniably legal in Venezuela. And, within well-established international doctrines on state succession, the agreements that set it up are in no way vitiated by the fall of Gaddafi.

Now, let’s be clear: there’s just no way Chávez is going to follow through on the agreements he reached with Gaddafi now that the guy’s been buggered and shot.

Taking that as a given, I very much look forward to the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s energetic protest against the inevitable Venezuelan move to disown the agreements.

Because, viéndolo bien, if no such protest is forthcoming, what grounds will the Chinese government imaginably have to protest the upcoming Capriles (or Pérez, or López) administration’s refusal to honor CNPC’s Faja contracts and the Fondo Chino agreements?

Am I right or am I right?

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1 COMMENT

  1. Te faltó el paquetito ruso, chamo.
    4 mil millones de dólares en préstamo para nuevas armas
    a partir de ahora (aparte de los 7 mil millones ya comprados
    según Kommersant, el diario ruso de economía).

    Los chavistas dicen que los 4 mil millones – que se suman a 400
    millones ya pagados por Venezuela de FONDEN – se pondrán
    en un banco ruso-venezolano.
    What’s going to happen with that bank once Wee Hugo
    is no longer with us? Are we going to keep receiving
    the weapons as delivered after Feb 2013?

    OT but not so OT: in 2008 Viktor But was recommending the
    fake FARC and real DEA men to carry out their weapons
    transactions through a Venezuelan bank.

    • chamo de verdad q ya estoy medio confundido con tener q leer medio en wuachi-wuachi medio en gallego,,,,definete broder, o eres molusco o eres marisco…

  2. And, within well-established international doctrines on state succession, the agreements that set it up are in no way vitiated by the fall of Gaddafi.

    Pero FT, precisely because the agreements were set up by Gaddafi, and Chavez, is that they are vitiated. Oder was?

  3. Before that, it would be interesting to know the position of the Lybian Embassy in Caracas. Since I have not heard then changing sides, what precisely they represent?

    And what is the Chavez government do when they finally declare that they represent the new Lybia? Will chavista mobs start storming the place, since they are now part of the enemy?

    That embassy is and will be the channel for that agreement and possible dispute.

    Another piece of captured territory in La Castellana…

        • By means of this comment I want to ask the whole Venezuelan blogosphere to do thumbs down to Aveledo until he tells us who he is not at liberty to mention.

          • Kepler,

            Thumbs down to you on this one.
            Respecting privacy is a must…why do you feel automatically entitled to get info from a specific person ?Why can’t you respect there may be good reasons for not disclosing something?Even if there is no good reason, it is his right to speak up or not.

            Shame on all of you for the thumbs down on GTAveledo.

          • FP – If one doesn’t have the liberty, simply don’t say anything at all.
            Suggesting that “someone” has done “something” with the chinese and then leaving it there, it’s childish and only sparks unnecessary and unhealthy rumors about it.

          • I agree, Carolina. These boards allow anonymity. As such, they invite some commenters who hide, while inflating themselves and their experience, in order to titillate recipients and satisfy a psychological need.

            I’m not saying GTA has that need. But if he dangles a tid-bit about a public figure (not a private citizen) that is germane to the topic at hand, then he should either provide a fuller and more accurate description, upon request, or never bring up the subject to begin with.

            Having said that, I’m not about to engage in a childish thumbs-down exercise.

  4. From my read of the article, the money to establish the fund (half a billion from each party) has not yet been paid by either party. Is that correct?

    If so, this “agreement” will simply be quietly ignored by both parties until it dies of apathy.

  5. Well this has been my opinion all along, I do believe the Chinese will have to be flexible with the next government or risk losing everything…

    I can´t believe this small tidbit has made you doubt your previous stance FT, you´ve always championed the posture that the next President will have to inevitably bend over to our red overlords…

    I really think the Chinese should be more nervous than the Venezuelans, they stand to lose a lot more, and will not be able to do much, in no way does the well being of our future economy depend on the Chinese (obviously avoiding that oh so huge debt), what I mean is, they are not our natural trade partners, nor do we need them to survive… If the Americans would stop buying our oil, we would have a HUGE problem.

    • Maybe the chinese are actually looking forward to a change. Although the current terms of the agreement are more beneficial to them, nothing gets done. It could be that they prefer a more balance agreement (where both China and Venezuela would benefit in a balanced manner) but to see something come out of it.

      Weren’t the chinese bitching about the inefficiency and corruption?

      • R Linares,

        Personally I think it serves the Chinese right to go through the pain of signing these great deals with Chavez and not getting things done because of the inherent qualities of the Chavez government.

        I agree that this will benefit a future opposition government and allow them to get a better deal for Venezuela.

  6. The Libyan will be changing the name of the soccer stadium –
    to “Wegothisstadiumfromanidiot”.
    Looks like should take all of Chavez’s assets and his family as
    tiny portion of payment for money Chvez wasted..

  7. By the way, I heard Tripoli and Havana had
    signed agreements -something like “Sister cities”
    And, wonder if Chavez has hired any of the Cuban
    female bodyguards who used to protect Quadaffi?
    And, Quadaffi’s mercenaries..?

  8. My position on this issue is that if we want to have any leverage in future China-Vzla negotiations, the oppo have to start NOW saying that ALL the agreements will be revised at the light of the Constitution and that a new government won’t fulfill ANY unconstitutional BILATERAL agreement (to deter them now, minimize the damage)…then, bring the Chineses of this world to the table after Feb-12

    • Yup. But it’s a balancing act, because we need be mindful to keep a constructive relationship with the Chinese. Those guys get development projects built.

      According to O’Donnell, the spectacle of paying the rojo-rojitos’ bribes only to get stiffed on the connected contracts anyways sent the Chinese into paroxysms of anger and cynicism. I bet they’d be open to renegotiation as long as they get adequate guarantees that there’ll be no more bungling and unexplained delays. They’re just as eager to put the faja projects on a serious footing as the next guy.

  9. “…, what grounds will the Chinese government imaginably have to protest the upcoming Capriles (or Pérez, or López) administration’s refusal to honor CNPC’s Faja contracts and the Fondo Chino agreements?”

    Don’t you think that the Chinese have a lot more LEVERAGE than the Libyans to enforce signed contracts?

    However, it might not be in either side’s best interest to just refuse to honor the contracts. The Chinese may discover that indeed it would be way better to work with the new oppo government.

  10. Anyone who thinks any future government will tear up agreements with the Chinese is very sorely mistaken. The Chinese are becoming the most dominant force on the planet. Suck up the deals Venezuela – you’re stuck with them!

    So in answer to the question, no, I don’t think the Chinese will protest for Venezuela to honour deals with the Libyan government. Neither will the Libyans.

    PS. No way – they really did bugger Gaddafi!

  11. Chavez has demonstrated that you can change conditions and most companies and Governments accept them. Thus, short of expropriating or cancelling projects, the new Government can and should change terms when it deems it convenient, without cancelling partnerships and the like. Chavez only got into trouble when he took over companies or property, not when he changed conditions.

    BTW, what about Hato Piñero? Who gets it now? Other than Venezuelans.Or will Gaddfis son have dibs on it?

  12. The US dominates Chavez’s foreign policy. If some country disagrees with the US, he’s there pounding on their door to be their friend and partner.

  13. are you right, or are you right?
    You are WRONG.
    It is very much in the interest of both a new administration and China to maintain, and improve upon, the relationship – as well as to render it transparent.
    abrazo
    Robert Bottome, VenEconomhy

    • No, YOU are wrong,Bob. It is very much in Venezuela’s interest
      to cancel several contracts-and renegotiate others-(maybe you
      call that “maintain” and improve..)Were the contracts made by
      Chavez with CHina “transparent’=no, hell no….so you want maintain
      those? I doubt you even know the details…

  14. Under any administration, it will probably boil down to the “guisos” on the side. Especially with the Chinese, they are often willing to sell their souls for a couple of euros these days. IOW, before and after Chavez, expect a few dozen people to get very rich all of a sudden, mysteriously. Chow Mein!

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