Varianzas – they’re tied

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Well-regarded pollster Varianzas says: Chávez 49.7%, Capriles 47.4%.

The number of people that say the economic sitation in the country is “bad” goes up from 43.4% to 47.2%.

To which of the pollsters should I send the medical bills for my ulcer?

Massive HT: ookkty1.

1 COMMENT

  1. Dream on even if the number were that close( they are not) Chávez 49.7%, Capriles 47.4%, President Chavez still wins.either way
    I know you guys like to make this up as you go along just so you will have something to complain about the next 6 years, hey.

  2. They have several very good data points for Capriles hidden in there. For example, to the staement: “The leadership that we need should look absolutely nothing like what we have had for the last fourteen years.” 47.5% agree with that, while 39% disagree.

    How can that sentiment be in any way consistent with a pro-Chavez majority?

    • ““The leadership that we need should look absolutely nothing like what we have had for the last fourteen years.” 47.5% agree with that, while 39% disagree.

      How can that sentiment be in any way consistent with a pro-Chavez majority?”

      Very easy: “Es que al presidente lo tienen engañao”

  3. Venezuela Discussion at Wilson Center (webcast) on Friday, Sept. 28
    Sep 24, 2012 06:20 pm
    Update Venezuela:

    The October 7, 2012, Presidential Elections
    Friday, September 28, 2012, 9:00 a.m. – 11:30 a.m.

    Sixth Floor Board Room, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W.

    Dear Colleague:

    In one of the most closely watched elections in Latin America, Venezuelans will go to the polls on October 7, 2012, to choose a president for the next six-year term. With only weeks to go, most—but not all—polls show President Hugo Chávez leading his opponent, Henrique Capriles Radonski, who has posed the most serious challenge to Chávez since he took office in 1998.

    Joining us to discuss the electoral context, the issues that are shaping voters’ choices, as well as the broader significance of this election for Venezuela’s future, are three distinguished experts:

    Luis Vicente León, Datanálisis, Caracas (León will present the results of the final Datanálisis poll prior to October 7)

    David Smilde, Associate Professor of Sociology, University of Georgia, and Senior Fellow, Washington Office on Latin America

    David Myers, Associate Professor of Political Science, Penn State University

    WOLA Venezuela Blog
    http://venezuelablog.tumblr.com/post/32221478817/venezuela-discussion-at-wilson-center-webcast-on

  4. This whole lot of polls and shit has got me sick already. I dont want to see the friggin’ comandante win again. i want him toast, dont care if that means civil war or whatever stupid menace. I cant stand the fact that I have been living 14 years of my short life under this bastard, and i dont want it to be 20 years. Makes me want to punch people in the face. (Sorry)

  5. I remember studying the number in the last two elections, and would stood out was that large numbers of Chavez supporters didn’t vote. There could be an approach-avoidance conflict. That is, when the pollster calls now, they are voting for Chavez, but when the election day approaches, the avoidance motivation overwhelms. It’s like when the groom doesn’t show up to the wedding!

  6. Varianzas? Never heard of them before this election. Mind you, not that that stops them from being any worse at predicting the result than the rest of the charlatans!

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