Watch that inevitability narrative shift…

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Finally somebody gets it.

It’s not “Chávez is comfortably ahead in the polls.”  It’s “while Chávez has a big lead according to plainly biased pro-government pollsters, serious independent pollsters show startlingly incompatible results.”

Take it away, David Luhnow (behind the WSJ paywall, alas):

The split pits Venezuela’s two most respected polling firms against each other. In past elections, both have had similar results. But not this time around, pushing the issue of polling to the forefront of the election.

“There is something seriously wrong with the polling in Venezuela,” said Iñaki Sagarzazu, a Venezuelan political scientist who teaches at the University of Glasgow. “Someone is not doing their job well.”

One respected firm, Datanalisis, issued a poll on Tuesday showing Mr. Chávez with a 10-percentage-point lead over Mr. Capriles. The other respected firm, Consultores 21, issued its latest poll on Wednesday showing Mr. Capriles winning 49.9% to 45.7%. That is a 14-point swing between both polls.

While Venezuelan analysts discount pollsters seen as obviously biased, most people view Datanalisis and Consultores 21 as credible pollsters with a strong track record. Mr. Sagarzazu’s analysis shows Datanalisis has a slight pro-Chávez bias and Consultores 21 has a slight opposition bias.

1 COMMENT

    • Thanks, tocayo. In 2007, we beat Chavez 51-49. The result in Lara? We beat Chavez, 51-49. What does Datanalisis say about Lara now? HCR wins, 51 to 41.

      I agree – if we’re winning by a landslide in Miranda and Lara, then things cannot be looking good for Chavez. Then again, we could be looking at two outliers, thanks to the governorship issues.

      • OK, but then you have Tachira, Zulia, Carabobo, where we have always won and by double digit! Datanalisis has been hiding things away all this time!

        I mean, come on! If you are landsliding Lara, Miranda, Zulia and Tachira (this two according to the historial behaviour) and probably you are beating the sh. out of Chavez in Carabobo too, together with a narrow victory in DF and Bolivar and Aragua, how the hell did LVL dare to say we are losing by 10%? I mean, come on! Delta Amacuro and Apure don’t have so many voters!

    • Can somebody tell me how can Datanalisis say that Capriles is winning in lara by 10%. and Miranda by 15% and he still loses the general election by 10 points? Is that even mathematically possible?
      Venezuela’s most populated states are: Miranda, Zulia, Carabobo, Distrito Capital, Lara, Aragua.
      Following Datanalisis numbers HCR wins Miranda and Lara by a lot. He will sure win in Zulia and probably Aragua. Those 4 states added have around half of Venezuela’s population. So you is Datanalisis telling us that Chavez will get 70~80% in ALL the other states? (I didn’t do the the math but I am guessing he would need that amount, maybe even more)
      No way jose.
      Datanalisis is lying and they don’t even hide it.

  1. Dear Kiko: I´ll say it again, I DO NOT believe in Datanalisis, their track record is not as spotless as people make it out to be. They´ll prove me right soon enough, their numbers don´t make sense.

  2. USD100 million of real money is entering the markets to buy pdv and venny bonds…

    Forget datanalisis, forget the polls, follow the moeny trail!!

    Hay un camino!

  3. A question; is the current lechuga verde rate a sign of chavista nervousness, maybe indicating they are trying to score their last dollars to line their pocekts for the escape to Iran or wherever?

  4. OT: This is something that usually goes under the table, but once again the Ministry of Education is making kids because of the elections http://www.noticias24.com/venezuela/noticia/128260/hanson-anuncia-que-el-comienzo-de-activades-de-educacion-media-sera-el-9-de-octubre/ . This is outrageous considering that even without the elections schools rarely meet the school calendar and now a new excuse to hurt the children’s education, as it could actually get worst. I remembered that when I was in school and we had manual voting you only lost one day of class on election weekend. So much for technology.

  5. The Guardian readers present themselves as somewhat anti-establishment, yet they don’t have much objection to the long established Chavez 🙂

    Your work is done in publishing the truth, whether or not people believe you is out of your hands.

    Great Job, and try to emotionally detach from the commenting would be my suggestion.

  6. Hugo Chavez: 56%. Henrique Capriles : 44%. +/- 2.5%. Anything else is just wishful thinking of the usual suspects or clueless guesses of expats living in Venezuela.

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