One thing’s for sure: in the (now very likely) event of early presidential elections, the CNE calendar is going to be a circus. The thirty days stipulated between the time the president steps aside and the day of the vote is tight, tight, tight. There’s definitely no time for an opposition primary in there.
But if Henrique Capriles underperforms on Sunday vs. Elias Jaua in Miranda State, the much vaunted “Double-Play” will be a political fact: there’s no way R.G. Aveledo can line up the opposition ducks in a row behind Capriles if the guy can’t even win convincingly on home turf.
If we end up with a hobbled Capriles and no time for a fresh primary, my sense is that Sunday’s election will turn into a kind of de facto primary, with whomever does best coming to be seen as the natural candidate against Maduro. Which makes the stakes much higher this Sunday.
President Falcón, anyone?
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