2012 Regional Elections live blog

Esto es lo que hay…

Chavismo sweeps the board except for Miranda, Lara and Amazonas, with Bolívar on a knife edge. For the first time in who-knows-how-long, not a single Venezuelan governor will come from the Adeco genus, so the clout of Omar Barboza and Henry Ramos within the MUD takes a big hit.

In fact, not a single old-style oppo pol pulled through anywhere: the Klingon death grip the Salas clan had on Carabobo is broken, and the underwhelming Morel is out in Margarita, as is Pérez Vivas in Táchira. 16D could be remembered as the meteorite strike that finally drove the opposition dinocracy to extinction.

Interestingly, Henri Falcón outperformed the opposition’s October showing in his state by 14 points, while Henrique Capriles only did 5 points better in Miranda than he had done in October. It will be lost on no one that a 14-point swing nationally would be enough to overcome chavismo’s October advantage, whereas a 5-point swing would not be. It’s a good thing those two are chummy, because people are going to be warming up Henri Falcón’s ear in the coming days.

9:16 PM: Anzoátegui for PSUV. Apure for PSUV. Aragua for PSUV. Barinas (Chávez’s brother) for PSUV. Mérida (a state the opposition won in October) for PSUV. Miranda margin closer than thought. Monagas for PSUV. Portuguesa for PSUV. Sucre for PSUV. Táchira (another state the opposition won in October) for PSUV. Vargas for PSUV. Yaracuy for PSUV. Zulia was close. Nueva Esparta (another opposition state) for PSUV. Bolívar is too close to call.

9:05 PM: Tibisay Lucena (PSUV) talking.

8:49 PM: It pains me to write this, but Zulia governor Pablo Pérez (Opposition) has lost his reelection bid. He lost to former governor and former Presidential candidate Francisco Arias Cárdenas. This is a huge blow to the opposition, as my home state is the most populous in the nation.

8:48 PM: Multiple sources confirm that Amazonas governor Liborio Guarulla (Opposition) has been reelected.

8:43 PM: Quick count in Miranda suggests Capriles won comfortably, by more than ten points. This would be huge heading into a presidential contest.

8:40 PM: The new governor of Trujillo is on the U.S. Treasury Department’s list of alleged drug kingpins. Way to go, Trujillanos.

8:37 PM: Lizeta Hernández (Delta Amacuro) and Erika Farías (Cojedes), both PSUV candidates, have been elected governors.

8:33 PM: Henry Rangel Silva (Trujillo), Ramón Rodríguez Chacín (Guárico) and Stella Lugo (Falcón) have all won their races. All belong to the PSUV.

8:28 PM: Multiple sources confirm Lara Governor Henri Falcón (opposition) has been reelected. Lara is the fourth most populous state in the nation.

8:05 PM: I think it’s safe to say that the doomsday 23-red-states scenario for the opposition didn’t materialize. We are exceeding expectations (which were horribly low). We’ll lose some, we’ll win some…

7:59 PM Caracas Time: After consulting multiple sources, we’re calling it: Henrique Capriles has been reelected Governor of Miranda.

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