The first year of Maduronomics


This-Way-That-Way1(A short post for a busy day) 2013 will likely be the first year of the Nicolás Maduro economy. What can we expect?

The Venezuelan Central Bank – which, mind you, is not independent as in other countries – predicts the economy will grow by a whopping 6% in 2013. But others beg to differ.

The World Bank thinks it’s going to be a measly 1.8%.

The UN predicts it will be a squalid 2.5%.

The IMF, ever the optimists, predicted in October that Venezuela would grow by a majunche 3.3% in 2013.

One has to wonder what the geniuses at the Central Bank are seeing that the World Bank, the UN, and the IMF are failing to see. One thing is for sure: whatever happens, they will take the credit if it’s good, and blame someone else if it is not.

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  1. Cepal: 2,0%; RGE: 2,0%; EIU (Economist Intelligence Unit): 0,5%!!!!!! At the end of last year, I checked growth forecasts of the major sources … and my final conclusion about The Venezuelan Central Bank was no doubt that they must use forecasting methods “as appropriate” that no one else uses them.

  2. I believe that GDP Growth includes government spending of borrowed funds. Of course, this is not sustainable, because borrowing against petroleum reserves requires Venezuela at some point to increase production! Even if the price of oil goes up, I think the Chavez has pledged a fixed oil price. Is that so?


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