Semana Santa, along with Carnavales, Christmas vacation, Indigenous Resistance Day and any other holiday that does not fall on a Wednesday and can therefore become part of a puente, are all venerated occasions for packing your coolers full of rum, calling up your fellows-in-suffering and getting the fuck out of Caracas for much needed respite at the beach.

Not that there is much difference between the two: beaches in high season are as crowded, noisy, and dirty as a weekday afternoon on Avenida Baralt. Just trying to get to one means spending the better part of a day in traffic, occasionally bribing the National Police at security checkpoints just because they feel like making extra cash. But yes, we’re that desperate: chaos-by-the-sea feels like a refuge from chaos, period.

Now, I work in political campaigns. There have been several of these a year for the past…several years. So it’s been a while since I spent Semana Santa as a proper vacationer. Most normal people, however, welcome the chance to escape from the political vortex that is daily life in Venezuela.

Let’s now add escapism to the growing list of luxuries we can’t afford.

The last time I went to the beach it was as a volunteer for the State of Miranda’s Carnaval 2009 plan. Capriles had just been sworn in as governor, taking over from Diosdado Cabello, so it was deemed absolutely crucial to his credibility as a proper authority figure and administrator that his first 100 days of government matched all the populist gimmicks the former had pioneered during his time in office, including the Holiday plans.

I arrived at Caño Copey, in Barlovento, the Saturday morning of the 4-day Carnaval weekend. A gobernación advance team had already been working on the field for days setting up first-aid tents and lifeguard stations, building stages, testing sound systems, and securing what would be our makeshift center of operations: a cinderblock and zinc-roof shack right on the shore, rented out for the week, which functioned as sleeping quarters for volunteers, a stockroom for materials, a conference room for morning briefings with gobernación and national guard officials, an empanada de cazón stand, and a cooling station for shade-seeking stray dogs.

I was furnished with a very official-looking Gobernación de Miranda shirt and a box full of crap-quality promotional swag to give away to beachgoers: Visors, waterbottles, fannypacks, keychains, hats, balls, t-shirts…all stamped with the new Gobernación de Miranda logo. As I made my way to the giant stage blaring reggaeton as part of the scheduled 11 a.m. dance contest, a large-bellied shirtless man holding a bottle of Polar beer stopped me:

“Mira, Capriles va a poner perros calientes gratis? Porque el año pasado Diosdado nos puso carritos de perros calientes,  y bueno, tú sabes, donde están los perros este año?”

I told him I’d get back to him on that (and later found out that no, there were no free hot dogs this year but that the gobernación did plan on giving away fried fish). The whole 5 km. stretch of beach had not one single trash can that I could find, but tons of lebranche frito.

Clambering onto the stage, I gazed at the sight below. It was garish. A frenzied sea of pushes, shoves, arms reaching out to grab anything, screams of Aqui! Aqui! coming from all directions.

Somebody said to throw the t-shirts, hats and other goodies to the crowd, except the box of stuff was ripped from my arms by the mob of people who really wanted their free fannypacks. I saw a muscular dude knock down an older lady while trying to catch a flying bandanna, nevermind he’d already collected three, which he was visibly hoarding under his arm. Señor! Ya usted tiene tres, dele chance a los demás! No, mami, a mi no me han dado todavía! he yelled while bobbing up and down among the sweaty jam of faces.

I gave up after just 5 or 6 minutes. It just felt wrong and unscrupulous and I had to retreat to our shack to cry a little bit.

Not to be outdone, the National Government deploys its annual Plan Nacional de Recreación para Vivir Bien every easter. Under the premise that recreational activities serve as far safer alternatives to getting drunk and killing people, the Bolivarian Government hires over 6,000 organizers to lead 1,8 million beachgoers in bailoterapia sessions, volleyball matches, musical performances, group yoga, and all sorts of fun-in-the-sun games along the nation’s coasts. Invasive, to say the least.

This is all put forward under the guise of fighting crime as part of the Misión a Toda Vida Venezuela. Well, not only that: according to Interior Minister Nestor Reverol, the recreational agenda is “part of the strategic policy of our State, where the government plans out Venezuela people’s  free time.”  Of course, it doesn’t hurt that the volleyball nets are red, that organizers wear Maduro campaign gear, and that the PSUV party sponsors concerts at the beach, as well as free buses to drive you there.

And, who knows? Maybe there really are some people out there who might shoot you if the government didn’t distract them with mass bailoterapia instead. And maybe some beach-lovers like their easter laced with politics. But let’s not pretend the institutionalization of these Semana Santa plans is anything other than what it is: symptoms of petropopulism in its terminal, metastatic stage.

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1 COMMENT

  1. I am really enjoying your posts.

    In my experience the best time to be in Caracas is during semana santa and on Sunday afternoons.

  2. I agree with canuckehead about emiliana’s posts and staying in ccs during SS and sundays. But… hope that anybody and everybody who is in los mayamis pa’ semana santa, goes to see the fantastic chilean movie about the publicist that designed the “NO” campaign against Pinochet! I just saw it and it’s fantastic from the very similar and at the same time disimilar circumstances of the NO campaign and the venezuelan opposition’s one. Wish it arrive in Venezuela before the election.

  3. What I love about this analysis is the unconstructive criticism. There’s lots of work to be done, but nobody on this blog is going to lift a finger. Worse, they’re trying to overthrow the only government that ever tried to improve matters, so they can get back to ruling the roost and ignoring the problem once again.

    And comparing bailoterapia, volleyball, music, yoga and games as an expression of terminal CANCER is a pretty low one,

    • I don’t think its possible to constructively criticize populism. But please let me know if you do, I mean it sincerely.

      • I think the government has definite populist characteristics, as do all revolutions, but is better defined as marxist/socialist/revolutionary. The Marxist perception of populism is often a right-wing phenomenon, or a diversion to real revolution.

        • What is the Marxist perception of bailoterapia?

          Why is it sometimes easier to find a bottle of Starbucks iced latte or Gatorade in “revolutionary” Venezuela than a litre of milk?

          Why in revolutionary Venezuela do employees of the government and of PDVSA get coverage for health care at private medical clinics?

        • marxist/socialist/revolutionary BS, there is nothing of that in this revolution, it is pan, lies and circo to stay in power.

        • EXACTAMENTE! Anyone accusing the Bolivarian movement of being populist doesn’t know what they are talking about. As you correctly point out populism is a right wing phenomenon and therefore can not possibly the defining characteristic of a left wing Marxist grass roots revolution. It is logically and scientifically impossible, if that were the case it would be as if to repudiate all of the Great Karl Marx’s theories, let alone Mao and Stalin’s elaborations (We will not mention the ultra-left USA supported Trotsky).

      • Emiliana Duarte, taking you up on your word that you sincerely wish to know of a way to constructively criticize populism:

        The alternative of cash distribution of all natural resource revenues should meet your criteria. This alternative not only kills the petrostate, making it the best long term solution (short term, it reactivates the local consumer market, lowers interest rates, boosts business, reduces unemployment, eliminates poverty, lowers the bolivar exchange rate, reduces corruption, etc.), but it is the most populist, making it the alternative with the highest chance to win the upcoming election most easily.

        I emphasize, it’s not about whether you like this alternative or not, it’s about whether you have another with better chance to both,
        A) straighten out the economy, and
        B) win the election.

        With this alternative, populism is a good thing.

    • Did you bother to read the article? Besides the last paragraph? Didja? Didja? Do please read it. It’s not about criticizing chavismo, but populism. It does really blasts it, from both sides.

      • Sensitive, are we? Populism is a cancer that can become terminal, that’s what he said.

        As for the very real cancer victim foremost in our thoughts: Don’t think Emiliana is referring to him, which died of cancer by his very own actions and his choice.

    • “Worse, they’re trying to overthrow the only government that ever tried to improve matters..”

      Lets not confuse participating in an election campaign with “trying to overthrow” the government. And let’s not confuse trying to improve matters with actually improving them.

    • Well just image that Venezuela is the ship…and this bolivarian cruise has lasted almost 15 years en el Mar de la Felicidad

  4. Loved this entry. Really loved it.

    In normal countries where the featherless bipeds with the right to vote are citizens too,

    The State (or Provincial or Regional) and National governments provide public safety, public services and depending, public welfare and health systems. These are frightfully expensive to them TAXPAYERS, and said bipeds would react like one whose money is wasted become incensed over the State wasting money in chicken feed for them.

    It’s enterprise, whether public or private (they are supposed to have profit if public, too!) are the ones giving away free cheap goodies, t-shirts, food and drink. They do it all the time, everywhere, particularly in events. And it’s not like the bipeds will knock older ones over to get one. They have their own money, dignity and civility, all to buy their own cheap crap: “thanks if you give us a garishly colored, logo-ed goodie, we’ll use it when nobody is looking, make it less garish next time”.

    Political campaigns don’t dream of offending bipeds who do not make part of said campaign’s staff by proffering to them their garishly colored, logo-ed merchandise or free food. They offer meetings and they offer advertisement and they offer publicity. A message on how totally they will use public money for good and noble ends and not waste it in chicken feed, bribes and pork. Not unlike the way they totally not wasted the limited campaign funds given them by hardworking party members, limited being the keyword here.

  5. Populism is gasoline prices in Venezuela , they are irrationally low , they please most people but ultimately they sabotage their long term interests . The opposite of populism is responsible government , sometimes things have to be done which work for the long term interest and sustainable welfare of people but which involve an element of sacrifice , which they dislike , for instance taxes or rational gas prices . Of course responsible government is less popular than populist government , most people lack the capacity or wisdom to appreciate that often the greater benefit is to be obtained by scrificing some inmmediate comfort or pleasure . The problem in democracies is that being popular is everything to a Political Group , so governments emphasize the populist type of measure to secure the popularity which will allow them to gather the most votes . Populism is what corrupts politics because the temptation is always there to do what pleases people instead of what serves best their long term interest and to make people believe ( make yourself believe) that difficult goals can be achieved without sacrifice or discomfort , that there are magic rethorical formulas that magically offer the chance of achieving those goals .
    There is a place for populism in good government to the extent it doesnt prevent it from acting rationally and competently having in mind the long term sustainable welfare of people even when it involves doing things which arent popular and are going to make it lose votes. Winning elections is wrong when its based on implementing or promising populist measures which are economically or functionally irrational and in the long run do more harm than good !!

    • Note, however, that your statement “Winning elections is wrong when its based on implementing or promising populist measures which are economically or functionally irrational and in the long run do more harm than good” leaves open the possibility of winning elections by implementing or promising populist measures which are also economically or functionally rational, not irrational, and in the long run are better than any other alternative. Nothing wrong with this latter form of populism.

      Your example of gasoline prices is interesting to me, because many people seem to share the understanding that it is a greater subsidy for the better off than for the poorer folk, yet those same people seem to fail completely to understand an even more unjust subsidy. Would you support a subsidy whereby every citizen is taxed a fixed % on a specific earning, but then the richer folk get discounted a greater amount from that %, directly proportional to their income? That is, the richer the person, the less the greater the discount? Of course not. Yet, that is exactly what has been done since oil revenues began getting used by Venezuelan governments. Each citizen gets taxed a barrel of oil for every 30million barrels pumped. If we equate these barrels of oil to a 100% oil tax, the amount of money that the poorest person is paying is 100% of his income, whereas, for the richest person, it’s close to 0%.

      The irrationality of the gasoline subsidy pales in comparison to the irrationality of the government taking the oil revenues for its spending, yet eliminating the former is avoided because it would be unpopular, while eliminating the latter is avoided because it would be popular. Go figure.

    • The combination Is perfect: Emiliana’s superb writing (great arc completion at the end!) on the evolving politics and popular behaviours at a grass-roots level, with a serious behind-the-scenes explanation by billl bass. Unbeatable.

  6. Excellent article. I especially loved the description of the adults pushing & shoving to grab as much free stuff as they could.
    “I gave up after just 5 or 6 minutes. It just felt wrong and unscrupulous and I had to retreat to our shack to cry a little bit.”

    When I first came to Venezuela more than 25 years ago & attended the first children’s birthday party I was utterly shocked at the piñata ritual. Children pushing and shoving to grab candy not to mention the wildly swinging stick to break it. The mother who pushed her 12 year old daughter to grab more candy from the 6 & 7 year olds. The frenzy!

    Well these children are now mid 30s and still have the same mentalidad.
    How are you ever going to change that?
    You can’t – it’s part of the culture & Chavez milked it to the nth degree.

    Couple that with the cult mentality & any hope for change is difficult to the extreme..

    • Yours is a very acute observation , Pinatas are part of our Culture , they involve a frenzied moment of chaos where children battle to grab the most cheap freebies they can , where a bit of violence and chicanery is not only allowed but encouraged , where an spectacle is made of that chaos. In this sense one might see the Pinata party as a metaphor for what Chavez has instituted as a form of governance , throwing its followers big Pinata parties , where things can be had for free, in a maelstrom of frenzied chaos which encourage people to indulge in a bit of violence and chicanery in a spirit of fun and games .

    • You’re not alone in your observations, i.c. My mother, Canadian-born, Venezuelan by marriage, spent over 40 years in Caracas. She had a visceral distaste of, not only the destruction of a piñata (which involves hours to put together), but of the kid frenzy, egged on by mothers/cargadoras, as per the custom.

      The freebie mentality also exists and begins early in northern latitudes (Hallowe’en, certain aspects of Canada’s social services, for example). But comparatively, it is smaller, not so overt, and held in check by the rule of law and higher taxes. Destruction, littering, etc. does not readily occur in these countries without financial penalties.

      • You have to be creative… My daughter’s piñatas were sooooo democratic they were boring. I prepared las bolsitas de chuches y regalitos, stuck them inside the piñatas that almost rhymenwith piranhas, and tied them with ribvons. The little civilized girls and boys sat around in a circle and at the count of one two three pulled their own bolsita in their lap. No pushing, shoving or violence. Everyone got the same share. My kids accuse me of being almost “a mommie dearest” for not subjecting them to the violence 😉

    • These pinata kids frequently grow up to be pinata adults, even in upper society. How many on this Blog (Syd, I’m sure, at least) has been to a top society expensive-entrance charity benefit dinner at a top hotel, and been absolutely amazed/chagrined that even before he/she has been self-served at the buffet table, many of those earlier self- servers have already made a second trip, even before touching their main course first serving, and cleaned out the dessert table (carrying away dinner plates-ful, and even, as I have seen, picking at the plastic fruits, thinking they are real). Sincerely, with this type of mentality, there is no hope for Venezuela, at least for a long, long time….

  7. *sigh*
    Every time I see one of my Facebook friends posing provocatively with her flag cap in the name of supporting “mi flaquito” I die a little inside. How to install actual political values into such a broken system without being patronizing keeps me up at night.

  8. This is to supplement ex torres excellent comments on subsidized gas prices, The danger of irrational subsidies goes beyond the fairness or unfairness of their application on different population segments . Where subsidies are irrational they totally falsify the cost structure of goods , so that as they are used and traded the cost structure of many other goods become falsified , where goods are traded and used without taking account of their true cost structure then the rational distribution of resources used to produce and distribute such goods becomes impossible distorting demand and making the whole economy dysfunctional . In the former soviet union the cost of transporting oil by rail was higher than the price of the oil being transported , this created a disruptive ripple effect on the whole economy which ultimately helped cause the whole economic system to crumble. Also to be noted is that gas in Venezuela is used not only by car owning individuals but by taxis , buses , trucks used to carry goods, vehicles used to perform public services etc so that raising the price of gasoline has cost consequences that affect everybody. This explains the difficulty all governments have in dealing with these subsidies..

    • Exactly, subsidies like the gasoline subsidy are so pernicious because the entire economy becomes dependent on it. Getting rid of it implies massive disruptions to people’s lives and jobs, whereas if you’d simply never had it in the first place people would have structured their lives in a more sustainable way and there would be no painful transition.

    • Given agreement that prices are supposed to reflect value structures, much as thermometers are supposed to reflect temperature, then the key is to eliminate all subsidies to reach a true measurement of value through price. But also given agreement that the elimination of subsidies causes a disruptive ripple effect (in fact, there are so many subsidies there would be many ripples which would add up at times to considerable waves, maybe tsunamis), then the key is to also provide the population with the buffering means to ride the waves until the waters settle. The only alternative I’ve come across permitting the former and achieving the latter is cash distribution. And it is populist, to boot, so it also wins elections. Why we are not there yet is beyond me.

      • Excellent reflection , cash distribution is what the Iranians did last year when they decided their economy couldnt cope with the cost of existing subsidies so they gave every iranian a cash amount and afterwards started cutting the subsidies . People accepted the cuts without Protest. The Economist lauded this move . Also remember that venezuelan gas prices were hiked in the past but preparations and compensations where so well implemented in advance that no protest followed . The thing in Venezuela is that the system of subsidies is so widespread and intricately overlayered that it will take a magicians skill and lots of time before prices can slowly be brought closer to a rational standard..

  9. Simon Bolivar governed Venezuela for 11 years. But according to yoyo, he never “tried to improve matters.” yoyo is therefore anti-Bolivar, and a traitor to the Bolivarian Revolution. A la lanterne!

  10. martes, 26 de marzo de 2013Es el Socialismo XXI nada más que comunismo a la Americana?

    Escrito por Jenny Paz y Mino ([email protected]) http://cambiorealecuador.blogspot.com/

    Venezuela ha sido retratada como un faro de esperanza para la izquierda. Otros han dicho que es la fuente de inspiración para todos aquellos que han sentido el intervencionismo de los Estados Unidos. De hecho, algunos incluso han afirmado que es el ejemplo brillante de cómo iniciar la construcción de un estado socialista exitoso. Sin embargo, entre el clamor de todos aquellos que apoyan el Socialismo XXI , al igual que el temor aparente de los líderes occidentales que lo han visto como un enemigo peligroso, por lo cual muchos han acusado al ahora difunto Hugo Chávez de haber sido un dictador. Dos libros escritos por el escritor ecuatoriano Germánico Vaca afirman que la verdad del socialismo XXI es mucho más siniestra que eso y él lo llama comunismo a la americana. (un capítulo de la novela http://salvacionenlassietecuevas.blogspot.com/) De hecho, los libros afirman que los proyectos se inician en 1960 con el nombre de Cóndor, Grupo de Trabajo, Simpático, afirmando que estos proyectos de los servicios de inteligencia han alcanzado su pináculo. Al centro de todo está el propósito de construir la infraestructura necesaria para explotar a los países ricos en recursos mediante la concesión de préstamos y la construcción aprovechando la ingenuidad de la gente. Mientras que la gente está contenta alimentada por la esperanza de construir una nueva sociedad, la realidad es que los verdaderos beneficiados son las multinacionales que construyen la infraestructura a precios sumamente elevados al recibir contratos masivos, a menudo sin ningún tipo de licitación y otorgados por los líderes del socialismo XXI. El autor afirma que la propia élite mundial han planeado esto hace mucho tiempo y que la verdad es evidente si la gente ve un poco detrás de la fachada.

    Un claro ejemplo citado por el escritor es que Ecuador recibe su gasolina desde Venezuela, al menos eso es lo que aparece en el contrato, en la realidad el acuerdo firmado entre Correa y Chávez fue aclamado por ambos gobiernos como un ejemplo de lo que el socialismo XXI puede lograr, en la realidad Hugo Chávez sirve como intermediario y, de hecho, que la entrega de la gasolina a Ecuador está siendo hecha por nada menos que Exxon, Shell y Chevron, este último que abandonó la selva ecuatoriana destruida y diezmada por la mala gestión y las malas prácticas en su exploración de petróleo.

    Los proyectos comenzaron en la década de 1960, y tenían el objetivo de desestabilizar los países para conducirlos a la primera ola de intervención que instaló once gobiernos militares y en aquel entonces se puso de moda los golpes de estado, ahora se sabe perfectamente que detrás de cada golpe de estado estuvo la CIA. El escritor clama esto no es nada diferente y que detrás del supuesto socialismo XXI está nada menos que los servicios de inteligencia sirviendo a la elite mundial. Al igual que la década de los setenta que tuvo como meta construir aceleradamente la infraestructura. En realidad al comparar lo que hicieron los gobiernos militares en Ecuador lo que ahora ha hecho Correa es muy diminuto en comparación. Peor si se toma en cuenta que Ecuador percibía apenas tres centavos por barril y ahora percibe la mayoría de ganancias de hasta $80 dólares el barril. En el proceso de construcción en los setenta la mayoría de las ciudades ecuatorianas obtuvieron alcantarillado, pavimentación de la panamericana y las principales vías del país; construcción masiva de puentes, estadios, coliseos, escuelas y colegios; la construcción del oleoducto nacional, construcción de la refinería de Esmeraldas, construcción de la planta hidroeléctrica de Paute, expansión del puerto de Guayaquil y de Manta.

    El escritor clama que desde entonces el plan era a largo plazo y la meta final era controlar un tipo de socialismo controlando los líderes títeres que dicen ser de izquierda. Es difícil discutir con la evidencia cuando los libros fueron escritos en 2007 y prácticamente todo lo dicho y que había sido proféticamente previsto por el escritor ha venido sucediendo exactamente igual.

    Vaca relata en detalle las hazañas de las agencias de inteligencia en América del Sur en los años sesenta. Aunque ninguna de la información es realmente nueva ya que ha utilizado solida referencia bien documentada de varios libros que han cubierto los pecados de los organismos de inteligencia de Norteamérica. Sin embargo, Vaca ha creado una historia muy interesante en Salvación de las Siete Cuevas, al combinar su imaginación, ficción y hechos reales, por lo que es muy fascinante leer, lo que suele ser un tema aburrido.

    Aunque el escritor no haya planeado que los dos libros sean complemento entre las obras. Es bastante obvio que él escribió Conspiración como un estudio llevado a cabo en la investigación de los hechos para escribir Salvación de las Siete Cuevas. Cualquier persona que se sienta inclinado a aprender más después de leer Salvación en las Siete Cuevas le recomiendo comprar Conspiración. Me sentí muy intrigada y con muchas interrogantes después de leer Salvación y el segundo libro proveyó muchas de las respuestas. Sin duda hay muchas ideas y cuestionamientos tanto filosóficos y religiosos, pero la idea central es en realidad cuestionar el intervencionismo de la elite mundial en los países del mundo. Todas son a la final preguntas validas que se plantean en la novela y quería confirmar las dudas de las fuentes que inspiraron al escritor y tengo que admitir que he aprendido bastante en el proceso.

    Vaca explora los cambios políticos que se están produciendo en Venezuela y Ecuador en su libro Conspiración en Latinoamérica. Es innegable que la política del Socialismo XXI está afectando a la gente común en un nivel profundo. A través de investigaciones y análisis explora una serie de transformaciones importantes en la sociedad ecuatoriana. Él es extremadamente preciso en la predicción de lo que iba a suceder en la sociedad ecuatoriana y extrañamente ideas publicadas en su blog Soluciones Para El Ecuador y escrita en el año 2004 fueron de hecho adoptadas por Correa como sus propias ideas. El escritor no hace ninguna afirmación al respecto.

    Los cambios en la sociedad ecuatoriana, por supuesto, son los siguientes: una nueva economía social en torno a una red de corporaciones estatales y cooperativas, el control casi completo de las fuentes de información y comunicación; lugar de trabajo ausente de la democracia y lleno de seguidores llamados del socialismo XXI, la educación popular, radical reforma agraria, que es simplemente llamado de una manera diferente como la redistribución de la tierra, los presupuestos participativos y planificación de la comunidad que aún impone la voluntad del partido en el poder. El resultado es una imagen más clara de la vida cotidiana en el Ecuador. La realidad muestra que la creación de empleo ha sido sólo a través de una enorme nueva burocracia, mientras que casi no hay trabajos reales que hayan sido creados en la economía real. Ningún otro libro en el país cuenta con este nivel de detalle, sino que será un texto clave para los estudiantes de la política latinoamericana y de los movimientos sociales y de interés para cualquiera que siga la suerte de la Revolución Bolivariana.

    Vaca presenta un argumento muy convincente, de que al igual que en la década de 1970 la modalidad de gobiernos militares se presentó como la solución del caos en los países latinos. Más tarde, la evidencia muestra claramente demostrado que la CIA había estado detrás de todos esos golpes de Estado. Si ese es el caso, entonces no habrá ningún impacto duradero en Venezuela y en la promoción de la integración regional en América Latina. Admito que inicialmente fue difícil para mí creer que esto podría ser posible, hasta que miré precisamente a la integración regional y las numerosas innovaciones institucionales que Chávez defendió, como el Banco del Sur y la Comunidad de Estados Latinoamericanos y del Caribe. Cuando Vaca dice que para descubrir la verdad se debe seguir el dinero para ver si se ajusta al crimen cometido. De hecho, serían precisamente los conglomerados bancarios y las multinacionales que se beneficiarán de ese control y consolidación. Vaca una vez más tiene razón al advertir que ninguno de estos cambios masivos hará una gran diferencia en términos económicos para los ciudadanos de estos países.

    Vaca también predice con bastante exactitud que Chávez en Venezuela y Correa en Ecuador iban a ser capaces de establecer un buen historial debido a que sus países tienen los recursos petroleros que sólo podrían llegar a ser más caros después de que el mundo había pasado el cenit del petróleo. De hecho, el desempeño económico de Venezuela desde 1999, experimentó un crecimiento positivo durante la era Chávez, a pesar de dos recesiones profundas, la una provocada por huelga petrolera y la incertidumbre política en 2002-03 y otra en 2009-10 debido a los efectos de la recesión mundial en los precios del petróleo y una política fiscal pro-cíclica. El crecimiento medio anual pasó del 1,6% en la década de 1990 a aproximadamente el 4,5% más tarde, el desempleo se redujo de 14,5% (1999) al 8% en 2012, por supuesto la mayor parte en una burocracia creciente. Sin embargo, el gobierno afirma que la proporción de la población que vive por debajo del umbral nacional de pobreza se redujo de 50,4% (1998) al 31,9% (2011). Estas cifras han sido a menudo consideradas como impresionantes por el Gobierno de Chávez y resultados similares en Ecuador, que permite a los socialistas clamar gran éxito. Pero Vaca había pronosticado que eso iba a pasar y había advertido en 2007 que cualquier resultado económico debe tener en cuenta el impacto positivo de los altos precios del petróleo en la economía venezolana y la economía ecuatoriana durante el período de sus gobiernos. Si, efectivamente, el crecimiento económico y el gasto a ido a pagar a las empresas multinacionales que construyen la infraestructura y en términos reales la industria, la agricultura ni las empresas han experimentado un crecimiento económico. El crecimiento es medido en el enorme crecimiento de las corporaciones estatales, pero no en la economía real del país y su gente. Esto advierte Vaca que podría ser bastante catastrófico.

    Vaca afirma que la élite económica del mundo ha diseñado el plan de esa manera precisamente para cosechar los beneficios de la infraestructura. Mientras por un lado se demuestra crecimiento económico ante el mundo por los enormes gastos en infraestructura, al haberse construido dicha infraestructura ignorando las compañías nacionales y dando contratos a multinacionales o sus sucursales o subsidiarias mayormente se ha ignorado y más bien debilitado la economía y las corporaciones internas del país. A quienes se les ha debilitado aún más imponiéndoles impuestos elevados. Cuando el momento preciso para explotar el país haya llegado y la fase de la construcción de la infraestructura haya terminado, entonces Vaca advierte que lo siguiente sucederá: los préstamos se cerrarán, los pagos serás exigidos y a través de los viejos trucos de la élite del mundo someterán a los países a la sumisión, entonces serán ellos mismos quienes ofrecerán la salvación. Ellos apuntaran el camino a la nueva democracia como la solución, un movimiento de nueva democracia y un nuevo nombre para algunos nueva globalización y el neoliberalismo volverá a diezmar el país, mientras que las multinacionales explotar los recursos del país comprando las mismas corporaciones estatales creadas por los caballos de Troya, por centavos de dólar.

    Por supuesto, es casi imposible creer que el socialismo tan exitoso sea toda una mentira. Germánico Vaca pretende decirnos que Venezuela y Ecuador no son realmente un verdadero Estado socialista y Chávez y Correa no son realmente comunistas. Por otra parte Correa y Chávez se han negado siempre a ser comunistas.

    Una vez que usted mira con cuidado toda la historia y revisa todos los hechos presentados en Conspiración en Latinoamérica y la novela Salvación en las Cuevas debo decir que ha hecho un creyente en mí. Vaca correctamente pregunta ¿de dónde salió todo este plan? ¿Es posible que todo el movimiento masivo podría haber venido de un judío Mexicano / alemán como Dietrich Estefan quien acuñó el término Socialismo XXI, cuando en realidad la mayoría de la gente ni siquiera sabe su nombre si no es el ámbito académico.

    Las administraciones en Venezuela y Ecuador han sido claramente caracterizadas por políticas aislacionistas que en el análisis cuidadoso no son ni siquiera socialistas, en principio, junto con el intervencionismo estatal en todas las industrias y sobre todo sector económico de sus países. Al mismo tiempo que una dependencia cada vez mayor del dinero que fluye de los precios del petróleo. No puede caber duda alguna que sin los valores del petróleo los dos gobiernos tanto en Venezuela como en Ecuador los resultados económicos serían absolutamente un desastre envuelto en una catástrofe. En tanto el petróleo y la minería han sido la baraja escondida debajo de su manga para cubrir todo pecadillo de sus economías. En consecuencia, Venezuela y Ecuador se encuentran ahora en la parte más baja de la clasificación de competitividad mundial. En Ecuador se han llegado a extremos absurdos hasta de prohibir la importación de celulares bajo pretexto de que de alguna manera eso ayudará a la competitividad y productividad de su gente. También se encuentran a estos dos países entre los de peor desempeño en términos de facilidad de hacer negocios, Ecuador ocupa el lugar 134 y Venezuela 180 en el rango entre las 185 economías. Irónicamente, en ambos países la producción de petróleo ha disminuido. Mientras que los préstamos por parte de los países, la deuda y el déficit siguen subiendo, la inversión sigue disminuyendo. Ambos países se enfrentan a una tasa de crecimiento de la delincuencia y la corrupción. ¿Es esto lo que es una Revolución Bolivariana? http://cambiorealecuador.blogspot.com/

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