Opposition Quick Count Suggests a Late, Crazy Night Ahead

By
Francisco Toro
-
0

finishlineHere’s the low-down: it’s close. Very close. Close enough to make the next few hours especially volatile.

The opposition’s quick count suggests a very narrow Capriles win. (With the stress firmly on suggests: we are emphatically not calling this one yet.)

Quick counts are inherently much more accurate than exit polls: they are computed from a statistical sample actual votes cast by actual voters and tallied by actual CNE machines which are then phoned in to Capriles HQ. That’s different from an exit poll, which is a tally of what people say about how they voted rather than of how they actually voted.

Last October, by this time, the oppo quick count suggested a comfortable Chávez win. The   result eventually announced by CNE was within 1% of the quick count result, as expected.

When a quick count is too close to call it comfortably at this point in the night, you know it’s close.

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1 COMMENT

  4. Ay papá! I know what you mean. I was working at Ojo Electoral when we did the quick count of the 2007 referendum and knew already results at 9 PM

    • I think you mean, “..get beatin’ up in”, which is probably why you haven’t yet come to 23 de Enero, as you expressed your desire here to do so some time ago.

        • The post explains it. A quick count is NOT a poll. It’s a count, a count of actual votes cast by actual voters reflected in actual actas printed by actual voting machines and phoned into Capriles HQ by volunteers. But it’s not a COMPLETE count, it’s a count of a sample of actas that are representative of the national electorate.

          A quick count yields a much more accurate ESTIMATE than a Poll, but it’s still that, an ESTIMATE subject to sampling error.

          Long story short, when a quick count can’t predict a winner at this time, it’s close.

          • In plain spanish so you tell them: Te comunicas con los testigos, te dan resultados, tienes un modelo estadístico que elige una muestro de centros que te ayuden a predecir la elección con un margen de error. He estado en 3 conteos rápidos y todos han estado en +/- 1% de error.

          • its essentially a sample of votes taken in various location using the actual vote given by the people, you take samples in every part of the country and send the result to “Commando simon bolivar” and it gives you a good idea of who is winning in the election, therefore from what it sounds from Caprille’s tweets, it would seem that their samples are coming out favorably for the opposition.

      • Jeez… I hate it when you treat readers like crap for no reason. And for connections, having your uncle be Jose Toro Hardy probably helps a little bit..so don’t go “I built it” on us…

  11. Eh, this sounds just like Briquett’s speech last time. Happy for gains but no real confidence in a win. Why must they do this to the opposition? That was so demoralizing last time a lot of people hated that shit.

    • “No podemos decir que pasó. Eso le corresponde al CNE. Nosotros, sin embargo, sabemos lo que pasó” – might change my mind… damnit. I wanted this shit to be over. A quick call and done. Still not believing. 😛

    • What jc says is actually true. I can’t forget that guy from the Rosales Campaign, few days before election, who swore “se los juro por mi madre que vamos a ganar”. Of course much water has gone under the bridge, but politicians love this game of carometro and guebonadas….

      • I’m going to feel so bad for Capriles after all this theater and he has to concede yet again. Yes, it’s important to call for peace and all that, it’s important to say that all the votes should be counted, but the implication is tearing up opposition / Capriles fans. 🙁

    • Cort, your time will come and everyone who has sufferred here in Venezuela will be after a piece of your hide and every wannabe chavista asshole!!!!

      • No. Stop it. We need to focus on rebuilding, in improving, gaining trust. Not on stupid vendettas.

        Let him see as we build something better, larger, for all. That will hurt him more than anything.

        There’s no time for hating, if we win.

    • I can’t help but notice how weak your propaganda is tonight, Cort. No triumphant chest-thumping? No threats of “arrasar” with all of us? What happened, man? You commies could at least be counted on for grandiose threats.

  18. Shame ND is down. I wanted drama. I guess I’ll come back later and see what happens. Still doubting Capriles can win this thing. I think this press conference is all theater.

    • Its CANTV that runs into the problem. You can ping it without problem into Miami, although it slows down significantly at that point. After that, you’ll get timeouts.

      CANTV directs from cha-gw (200.44.43.21) to an internal IP (200.44.43.193). It could be a dead end redirect from external routing, or it could be simply that the traffic has overloaded the 8088 processors and 56k baud modem at the CNE.

      Likely, the latter, but not inconceivably a protocol the Cubans imposed.

  25. Get a clue, time to buy a ticket back home or you can go to Ecuador. Your dream is over dude! No volveran, hahahahaha!!!

  28. It’s close not because of the voting it’s because the major monkey businesses that have gone on all afternoon. I have dozens of people denouncingnthe military or tupamaros or motorizados or xyz chavistas not letting them in to audit the votes. Clandestine votingncenters in caracas and zulia guarded by the GNB o sea…

  30. I have a question about the quick count. What happens if the CNE announces that Maduro won with a margin smaller than the margin of error of the quick count, taking into account that the MUD has pretty much stated that the government might be trying to manipulate the results?

  31. Both are claiming victory & it is super close, but there is confidence in the win…we will see when the CNE is foreced to announce!

  32. @lavici: “ RT @ComandoSB_Zulia Herido de la Mud por Oficialista en el liceo Eduardo Mathias Lossada,por las auditoria http://t.co/rWIAiikEqU” check the photo out. Not nice… But this is chavista desesperarion at work. If they had won would they be attacking people like this, crashing into cars? Menacing with rifles? Irresponsability of the gvnmnt…

  34. Guillermo Cochez, former Panamanian ambassador to the OAS, claims that Capriles has won. Also claims that el oficialismo has seen the data and will prepare to concede. But then again, he’s anti-chavista so I’m not trusting his word. But this just makes the situation just more tense!!

    • If this did occur, then the opposition would freak…and witnesses would be called at the center where votes were manipulated…it would be a mess….the good news is we learned through past mistakes and we are much better organized…

  39. http://votacion2013.com/ da HCR ganador… En 10 mins y que el,primer boletín del CNE. Let’s see if we have a tricky but almost responsible gvnment or they will create a civil strife. The oppo will NOT let them tke away the voter’s decision.

  42. Is there nothing better to show during this excrutiating waiting period que la varanda esa y Nitu y El Ciudadano hablando pistoladas…

  43. It seems like a staring contest whoever blinks first lose. In other hand wtf with all the twitter accounts getting hacked, is that a ruse or a serious flaw in twitter security.

    • 180K votes is approx 1%.

      100K voters overseas

      So yes, 0.5% from overseas is logical.

      Figure 90% of the overseas vote swings oppo usually.

  45. Quico,

    Assuming that I am not dreaming this and that Chavismo accepts a loss, when would the inauguration (toma de posesión) be?

  47. I hope the MUD does not recognize the results and demand the manual recount. The numbers are too close. Additionally ,Maduro states that the 100% of the boxes should be opened, I wonder if he really understands what is going to happen, I don’t think so. This is going to be messy like hell,

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