Caracas Chronicles

Here’s the low-down: it’s close. Very close. Close enough to make the next few hours especially volatile.

The opposition’s quick count suggests a very narrow Capriles win. (With the stress firmly on suggests: we are emphatically not calling this one yet.)

Quick counts are inherently much more accurate than exit polls: they are computed from a statistical sample actual votes cast by actual voters and tallied by actual CNE machines which are then phoned in to Capriles HQ. That’s different from an exit poll, which is a tally of what people say about how they voted rather than of how they actually voted.

Last October, by this time, the oppo quick count suggested a comfortable Chávez win. The   result eventually announced by CNE was within 1% of the quick count result, as expected.

When a quick count is too close to call it comfortably at this point in the night, you know it’s close.