Press reporting Capriles and López could be jailed (Updated)


Leopoldo López says there is a warrant out for their arrest. Spanish daily ABC reports a similar thing. They are being accused of the seven deaths that took place during last Monday’s protests.

Don’t know how accurate this is, so stay tuned.

UPDATE: Apparently it’s been called off or something.

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  1. Leopoldo said as much on his twitter and suggested they’d go with their heads held high. I hope the formal request for recount is submitted by then.

  2. a couple of Chavista “facebook friends” (one of them works in AVN) are saying that this opposition “sigue siendo la misma violenta” and are saying that the government will “hacer algo al respecto”; given their inclination for salomonic decisions, I am afraid that instead of agreeing to do the recount, they’ll resort to jailing Capriles and Lopez, and who knows what else… and if that happens, I am afraid hell will break loose.

    • How about an analysis of Capriles’ so-called “evidence” at the press conference yesterday Quico?? HIs “examples” are demonstrably false by simply looking at the results on CNE’s website. Utter bullshit.

      Do you have the honesty to show that here? Or will you tow the line and allow this manipulation to continue Toro?

      • How about an analysis of the CNE so-called “evidence” at the press conference on sunday/monday GAC?? Their “data” could be demonstrably false by simply looking at the results on the ballots+cuadernos+actas. Utter bullshit.

        Do they have the honesty to show that? Or will they tow the line and allow this manipulation to continue?

        • Capriles has all those actas in his hands, with the signatures of his witnesses on them. All he has to do is total them up and show the discrepancy.

          So far all he has done is made up complete lies about actas that don’t total up, which are easily proven wrong by simply looking at those voting centers online.

      • My voting Center had a PSUV toldo right beside it. Guards wouldn`t close it.

        Do you want me to send a picture?,

        Bikers, Assisted Voters. I`m not sure about the other things, but many of his arguments are true.

        • And about the Acta he read. I believe every table has to have a separate act. Tables don’t add up together. Although the center has 700 voters, the ACT must say 350 and 356 for each table.

          I would have to see the ACTA to tell you if you are right or not, but without seeing them we simply can’t say.

        • That’s not evidence of fraud. His evidence of so-called “fraud” was all complete lies, which anyone can see by simply looking at the results on CNE’s website.

      • How about ANY EVIDENCE WHATSOEVER from the phony electoral commission that “declared” the result “irreversibly”? The law permits elections to be challenged; the commissionrs are the ones who won’t show the proof.

        • This is incredibly ignorant. The evidence is in the actas, which Capriles has in his hands, signed by his witnesses, along with the audits, etc.

          It is irrefutable proof. There is simply no way to commit electoral fraud without it being discovered in the actas.

    • Well so was it rational for Capriles to set off the escalation in the first place by calling fraud so aggressively without having eonugh conclusive evidence to show? It’s not like it was impossible to foresee that chavistas could start to loose it if they were pressed hard enough…

      • You should remember that Maduro agreed to a count when he first spoke, so the escalation would have been avoided if he followed through with that commitment. but evidently someone didn’t agree with it and he backtracked, the castros? The CNE? Diosdado? Who knows, but it’s evident Maduro is not calling the shots

        • But the point is that Capriles simply does not have the hard evidence he needs to back up his uber-agressive fraud claims, but kept pushing for the recount as if he did, in full knowledge that regrettably, and regardless of Maduro’s initial agreement, the CNE had the last word as it is a legally autonomous entity. It’s not like it was a horrendously complicated scenario as to not be able to think backwards from what was the obvious end of the game, no?

          • “, and regardless of Maduro’s initial agreement, the CNE had the last word as it is a legally autonomous entity.”
            Chiste del día

          • I am obviously not implying that the CNE is *impartial*; I am simply pointing out that the letter of the law gives the final word about the recount to the chavista-controlled CNE

          • Alan:

            “But the point is that Capriles simply does not have the hard evidence he needs to back up his uber-agressive fraud claims,….”

            Where do you get that he has no proof? Because he hasn’t shown it you personally? Because he hasn’t published it online? Because the maid who cleans the cousin’s wife’s uncle who adopted the butler’s illegitimate child that drives a tricycle for the campaign said so?

            He has 15 business days to present his proof and he is playing a high stakes poker game.

            My belief, for now, is that he does have proof and is also able to present proof that certain voting centers results should be questioned because of blatant voter intimidation, because there were multiple votes by the same person and other irregularities and that those votes should be either annulled or special elections for said centers be held.

            I am going on faith at this point, that he has that, because to think he is simply doing this because he is a spoiled brat is not who he is.

            If it turns out he has nothing, he’s toast forever. The damage this will do to the opposition would be so great we’ll look back fondly on 2005

  3. They can’t get us to react with violence of our own so they put people in our concentrations to do it for us.
    When that didn’t work because Capriles called the people off the street they will arrest our leaders to provoke a reaction in order to invoke martial law.
    Today & tomorrow are critical.

    • Chavitas have learned from Iran, they want to provoke opposition supporters and they need violence to start the crackdown. They saw how Iran successfully stopped majority supported marches in their tracks with violence and fear. The irony is of course that the Tudah party and other leftists in Iran have been brutalized by the government there, Chavez never cared about their plight at all.

    • Hopefully Capriles will call for peace and go quietly if they arrest him. Then he can sit in jail for a few years as the country goes to shit (hopefully not assassinated in jail) and when he’s released become the victor. But it was wise of them to also pick Lopez, they will have the two top leaders of the opposition. Arrest them and then they accidentally die in custody, the opposition will have to pick someone else. MCM maybe? (Sorry for my wild-ass speculation, CC can delete if they want.)

      • Of course it’s always easier to propose someone else sit in Prison, and I doubt he would be treated as well as Hugo Chavez was. That said, Carpriles would likely go willingly, which is what makes him a great man as opposed to cowards like Maduro.

        • I think so too, and I think if he makes a grand speech to those ends, violence will be at a minimum. What Maduro wants to do is escalate this thing so he can blame the coming crunch in Venezuela on the opposition. Capriles can’t allow it. If anything being arrested is his out and while risky, proposes a future electorally.

          • agreed, unfortunately Jail time makes for good candidates for presidents for some reason in latin america…. but I wonder how viable MCM would be as a leader in the oppo, at any rate, the question would be when will the other half of the army realize that Venezuela has essentially become a colony of cuba and Castro’s wet dream… (please remember Castro has always eyed venezuela since the 70s… please check United Nation remarks between Venezuela and Cuba back in the day)

          • I’m glad you posted it, I hadn’t seen it. Man MCM is a firecracker, damn. Even Cabello smirked at the end of that freaking speech.

          • Woman’s got some serious cojones, extremely admirable.

            Much more so than the rest of those sycophants in the AN.

  4. Indeed. I am sorry. Chavez cadres, as all extremists, relish in escalation, in infiltrating and unleashing violence.
    Few grasp this fully it unless they had actual experience or contacts with these extremists.The proto-Chavistas, for instance, also had a big part in making the Caracazo riots worse. They could not foresee the extent of the violence but they very well knew it could and would become extreme, and they knew the military would become wild and shoot also innocent people.

    Once in power, they kept doing it and that’s how we got 2002.
    All those currents have always done that, in Venezuela, in Weimar Germany and in Imperial Russia. A lot of their old folk were actually trained in Russia, later in Cuba, on subversion and sabotage.
    They might not know how to do cross-multiplication, but they know how to let a hot head kill anyone. They can use a lot of ours like zombie ants.

    • “The proto-Chavistas, for instance, also had a big part in making the Caracazo riots worse. They could not foresee the extent of the violence but they very well knew it could and would become extreme, and they knew the military would become wild and shoot also innocent people. ”

      Unbelievable, I guess you blame the left for everything even Hitler.

      • National Socialism, especially in its street fighting days, had elements of left and right. Which is why to keep Army support Hitler eventually had to move on the left wing of his party.

        And when did he blame the Left for Hitler? Way to put words in his mouth. Extremists who relish on violence and keeping emotions and not intellects in charge certainly occur on the right and left. They are fundamentally anti-democratic when push comes to shove, which is what you see here. Once in power, they will never leave the ministries or seats of power until forced by popular unrest.

        • I’ve always felt both extreme rights and lefts are essentially the same, anti democratic. there is no different with a super right compared to a super left..

          • I think Chavez, like Peron, really belonged on the extreme right, since the communist left is internationalist rather than dumb-patriotic. But of course they are similar, as you say; leader-worship and iron party discipline following a single leader are shared traits,

      • Shame,
        I didn’t say “Left”. Life is more complicated than two fractions. That’s for Dungeons and Dragons and for extremists.

        Perhaps you need to read a couple of books on universal history first, then a couple of books about European history, then a couple of books about modern history of a couple of European countries, then a couple of original works from different theoreticians, from Marx and Lenin to whatever on the “right”. You don’t have to study history for that, it should be part of your general education, specially if you are even interested in politics as a hobby.

        You might find Robert Service’s Penguin History of Modern Russia a good introduction to the last 110 years of Russia. It’s very very general, but it should give you a hint. Do you know what the Mencheviks were? Apparently not. They were from the left. And do you know what Bolsheviks did to them? How they infiltrated them, provoked violence, avoided any debate like hell? Mencheviks represented a big threat to the people I consider extremists because Mencheviks were…welll, non-extremists and believed in compromise and freedom, at least most of them.

        The Soviet Union had quite some clout in the communist parties of many countries for many years. Do you know what Stalin did in 1930-1933? He instructed his people to tell their German comrades from the German Communist party to focus on fighting – both figuratively and literally- the Social Democrats and that they should leave the Nazis alone. Why? He considered the Social Democrats a bigger threat than the Nazis, with their non-fundamentalism, a real threat to the Communists’ advancement. Lenin had a similar attitude with regards to other groups before and during the Revolution and Civil War. And before that they always tried to do that, as I said in the short period of the Menshevik-led revolution, before that during Czarist Russia.

        Competition can get quite extreme in certain groups that differentiate mainly by the level of violence they are willing to use.

        I could go over and over about similar decisions from the extremists from the late XIX century in Russia, from the early XX century in Germany and from the last few 50 decades in Venezuela.

        In Germany you could see, very simplistically speaking, a) real social democrats who decided in the mid XIX century that parliamentary change was possible, b) those on the extreme who openly rejected that and c) those like Rosa Luxembourg, who was actually much closer to the extremists than many of her fans today think, but who said it was convenient during certain times to make a compromise.
        . She would have used violence when time came (at the end she was killed by some from the extreme right and is remembered by her fans now as “a good one” who was critical of the extremists…not knowing she was just more suave).

        Did I get this information from some “right books”? No, the first time I heard that was when listening to Social Democrat Klaus von Dohnanyi (it was in a German debate about the danger from the communists).

        As for the Caracazo: I happened to go sometimes to the Soviet embassy for cultural – non ideological – reasons and I got to know some commies who were hanging around at the UCV back during pre-Caracazo times. Some current PSUV luminaries were actually caught with weapons during that moment.
        The PCV of Venezuela was very eager to get training from the KGB for actions of sabotage and rioting…up to eighties.
        I translated one of the KGB reports on that, one of the reports Bokovsky managed to smuggle out of Russia

        In that report you can read about a relative of a late PCV head trained by the KGB. That guy is related to a couple of current PSUV members. There were several of them and they trained other people in acts of sabotage. They were a pain in the neck for the UCV. How do I know? I was studying at the UCV back then, as I said, and also going to the Soviet Union embassy to get Russian books…I knew where they were hanging around.

        The Venezuelan government has now sent several dozen Venezuelans to train in Minsk, Belarus at the Institute of War. What are they studying there? Theoretically, they are just training to use the Russian tanks etc. But you can see even in their site that institute also offers training for such things as intelligence and sabotage. That’s where the Belarus KGB gets a lot of their people now. Of course, Belarus is no longer a communist state, just some mixed economy at the service of Luka and his cronies…a bit like Venezuela, even if there are also so many differences.

        I am not talking about ONE left.

        • He’s probably never heard of 80% of the parties, events, and people in the concise and cogent history you just laid out.

          Most people are only capable of ‘us and them’. Part of the reason why guerillas (in various conflicts around the world) will be as vicious against nuetrals as they are against the enemy. They don’t want any compromise. They need polarization to have any chance of winning.

          • By nuetrals, I mean those ‘lukewarms’ seeking compromise. Guerillas and extremists also try provoke as much backlash as possible in the hopes of people having to choose sides and (often emotively) choosing there side. That works best when they have some symbol on their side, however deceptive or not.

            Good to remember whenever Maduro and company try to get the opposition riled up. They want confrontation, so rational people start making decisions based on emotion and choosing sides based on crude propaganda.

  5. Kind of a random question: but when do they count the votes abroad? I don’t think any of the official tallies have included them yet, right?

    • I think they were counted the day following the election (well, at least that was the case here, they were counted on Monday morning), but it appears that the CNE has not yet released a second boletín including the results from abroad. Or have they? The CNE site is still inaccessible from abroad, it seems.

    • I saw Globo passing numbers on their screen yesterday.
      New Orleans for example had ±5800 votes for Capriles & 9 for Maduro. 🙂

    • I just checked out CNE’s website. The overseas votes have not been included nor can be seen by themselves.

  6. So shouldn’t they count those in before the final tally? That’ll be like 70-80,000 votes to help close the gap, right? I know Capriles would still be losing, but that is a ton of votes when you’re losing by 275K.

  7. Bruselas
    Capriles: 192 Maduro: 22 María Bolívar: 1
    Capriles: 417 Maduro: 21 María Bolívar: 1 Eusebio Mendez: 1

      • In Vancouver:

        Total de Electores: 832 (100%)
        Total Votos Escrutados: 640 (76.92%)
        Henrique Capriles: 626 (97.81%)
        Nicolas Maduro: 13 (2.03%)
        Nulos: 1 (0.16%)
        Abstención: 192 (23.08%)

    • I suppose the Embassy staff feels obligated to vote for Maduro and fear losing their jobs if they don’t. That would account for the Maduro votes.

  8. If this happens, which I think will, the genie is out of the bottle. I thought that there was a possibility that, if Maduro should win, Venezuela could turn into a dictatorship. I just did not think that it was possible on such short notice.

    The events that are occurring right now are almost to extreme to believe. I almost wish that Chavez would still be alive. Venezuela is turning into a full blown dictatorship like Cuba is. All the wrong countries are accepting Maduro as president. You can even tell where Maduro stashed their cash:

    This is just to much and I just hope this regime will be overthrown really soon.

    • The NY Times described Maduro as near hysteric. I think, that besides the questionable results, Maduro is becoming a nonviable President, very close to be unfit for office. Abdalá Bucaram 2.0.

        • Yes, I mean there´s been President prone to verbal gaffes, but Maduro seems unfit to take any minimally rational decision as head of state, have control or the army or reconcile the different chavista fractions. What head of state says he has to “consult” to make a decision when he is speaking with his main political opponent?

        • He’s run out of the lithium he inherited from the boss. My guess is the stress might be a bit much for someone like him who is used to a cushy life of being a deputy by part list and then a minister.

        • there’s unhealthy narcissism going on. He’s pathological in my opinion but not as deranged as HCF was. But the Cubans picked him for a reason and this guy is definitely a co-narcissist or narcissistic. Very maleable. The signs are there: “tengo que consultar”. Confronting the narcissist head on and exposing him like Capriles is doing will lead to confrontation and showing of true colors. Capriles is doing the right thing but may pay with his freedom.

          • Confronting the narcissist head on and exposing him like Capriles is doing will lead to confrontation and showing of true colors.

            agree totally. The bigger picture behind the recount is exponentially much more than the number of votes.

  9. Is it possible that someone in Venezuela download the full (as of today) results from the CNE webpage and publish it somewhere else (or torrent) so we, outside the country, can go through the information?

  10. This is the last electoral opportunity for the next 75 years if Maduro prevails. The opo participation in the upcoming municipal elections is going to be nil. The electoral laws will change soon such that it would be impossible to defeat a Maduro’s candidate anywhere. Look at Cuba, Venezuela will get the same thing.
    So this is the day of definitions. We need to do everything we can now!!!

    • I doubt it. If this situation prevails and Capriles remains stoic, believe me oppo voters will go in mass to the polls for the municipal elections, and I very much doubt that the chavistas will.

      If what I say is true the gains would be enormous. Not only politically, but unlike states, municipalities can tax and are somewhat less dependent of the central government.

  11. I think this game is being played on a higher level. Maduro vs Capriles vs Cabello. If the fight between Maduro & Capriles fully erupts, the military will step in and voila. We will have Cabello as the new man in charge. I really think this will be the end game.

    • I believe this too. Maduro is a puppet and is only getting authoritarian so quickly because he is so weak. I’d say diosdado organising an impromptu assassination and calling it the oppo has to be a real possibility.

  12. Although I think the Castros would like to imprison Capriles/LL/et. al., I’m not sure they will dare, since this will just hasten the end of their oil supply. The Venezuelan military are not so foolish as not to see the handwriting on the wall–Capriles clearly represents the majority, and, without the electoral fraud, and massive coercion/intimidation of public employees/handout receivers, even more so. Cabello, as a faithful representation of Edward G. Robinson’s “Little Caesar”, has painted himself into a corner, and, rather than eventually triumphing in a brokered deal (as wily old fox JVR is trying to do), will , and justifiably so, probably go down with the ship. It is paramount that Capriles’/LL’s phsical integrity be preserved to prevent a repeat of the Gaitan/Colombia chaos….

  13. Could Capriles’ poor evidence showing be him falling on his blade, as it were, and basically giving himself up as a sacrifice to the chavistas? I mean, all they got to do is laugh at his claims, prove him wrong, and pow, he looks stupid. But since the chavistas are inherently irrational, arresting him could save his ass in the long run.

  14. If Capriles is imprisoned then Falcon or others take over and have an even bigger torch in their hands , the oppo is not just one man !!

  15. The esdata data confirms the difference announced by the CNE. First check is that our actas match those number. Then, if our claim is that with 94% of the actas we were tied (according to Miguel inside info), it should be easy to prove that in the remaining 6% they gain the 270000 vote difference. Unfortunately, this does not prove causality. If we didn’t audit we are screwed those mesas, I hope we are banking on some more solid ground here.

  16. It’s not only that Capriles would look stupid, it would destroy him politically. If the CNE numbers are correct, the best the government could do is allow the recount. It would restore the CNE’s reputation, unveil not only Capriles but all of the oppo leadership as liars, and the regime would come out smelling like a rose. Chavez faithful would realise the oppos were the evil ones all along. It would be a golden opportunity to implode the opposition and corroborate the government’s democratic credentials. To insist in the present course, with its high political price, strongly implies a coverup to avoid an even costlier revelation, in political terms.

    • Precisely. The governments stance only makes sense if they indeed do have something to hide. Jailing Caprilles would only add to that, he would become Venezuelan San Suu Kyi.

      Either that, or they’re political imbecils. That too is a real possibility.

    • Exactly, but there is another possibility, but it looks more and more improbable with every hour, that they let Capriles put the stakes higher and then show he was wrong.
      Now I’m thinking they couldn’t go with a recount because that would revels fraud and then it would be a partial new vote, leading to a change, more when you see Maduro’s support dwindling. And it would put doubt on Chávez results too, if they care about it now…

      • I thought of that as well. It could be a stroke of political genius and get them a few weeks of honeymoon period.

        The problem right now is that the opposition can easily claim something fradulent happened in the meantime and they just needed time to fix it. Secondly, the opposition also has plenty other issues at hand.
        This is why I think this is something else – a stern refusal to give opposition anything at all. It is not impossible that a recount would actually confirm the results, but they simply don’t want to give in any demands at all.

        • That could be Chávez style, águila no caza mosca, but with barely fifty-fifty results, they risks appearing as it was not all so clear to the international community. Rushing the ceremony and denying a revision would be certainly make not favor to the credibility. I think there would be a good caceroleo as Cristina and other “friends” comes to CCS. Why to begin with that mess?

          • Incompetence? They probably believed they could get away with it, but now they see they won’t? Maybe they didn’t cheat by that much – 180k votes or so – and now they’re realizing they need those votes to win.

            Possibilities are many. I just don’t see how this refusal to recount votes could be benign.

  17. Can some one please explain to me why is it that Capriles hasn’t made a formal request to the CNE? Because to be honest I am quite confused at this moment in time… Are we still arguing numeric fraud? or did we at some point in time switch to argue counterfactuals?

    Can some one “draw me a map” of what is it that the oppo is doing?

    • The electoral legislation gives a candidate twenty days to challenge the results and provide the evidence to prove such challenge.

  18. And changing to more positive news, the government has just announced that, in his new approach for objective news coverage and according to the war on corruption a new director for the News Channel VTV has been named:
    El nuevo encargado de llevar las riendas del medio estatal es hermano del vicepresidente Jorge Arreaza, y autor del himno del Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV), Gustavo Arreaza.

    • Predictably, deaths are being manipulated by the Venezuelan government. From today’s NY Times:

      “The government said that the seven people who were killed were supporters of Mr. Maduro. But the father of one of those killed, Ender José Bastardo, 21, disputed that account.

      The Justice Ministry said that Mr. Bastardo, a mechanic, was among a group of people celebrating Mr. Maduro’s victory in Cumanacoa, in eastern Venezuela, when they were attacked by a group that opened fire. Mr. Bastardo was killed and two other people were wounded.

      But Mr. Bastardo’s father, William Bastardo, 45, said he and his son were marching in a protest against Mr. Maduro’s election, banging pots, when shots were fired from a nearby building. “I demand justice for my son,” the father said at the morgue in the nearby city of Cumaná, “and that peaceful protest be respected.”

  19. Results from Germany
    Los resultados oficiales en la República Federal de Alemania son:
    Total General: 801 votos
    Henrique Capriles R.: 709
    Nicolas Maduro: 77
    Maria Bolivar: 01
    Eusebio Mendez:01
    Reina Sequera: 02
    Nulos: 11
    Resultados Berlin: 192 votos
    Capriles: 155
    Maduro: 34
    Nulos: 03
    Resultados Frankfurt: 447 votos
    Capriles: 417
    Maduro: 21
    Maria Bolivar: 01
    Eusebio Mendez: 01
    Resultados Hamburgo: 162 votos
    Capriles: 137
    Maduro: 22
    Reina Sequera: 02
    Nulos: 01

    • Nada. Ese video tiene un problema conceptual grave, que es que asume que los centros que no se han contado son representativos de la media. No necesariamente es así. Es una burrada, sorry.

  20. “Things will get ugly”

    Belarus comes to mind,nothing happens and nothing has happened and nothing will ever happen.
    Sad times for this lonely country with so much potential.

  21. Why are the result from the embassies taking so long to be incorporated to the final result? (semi.rhetorical question). There must be at least 60,000 votes for Capriles, which is a rather nice chunk considering the difference of votes between the candidates. It will change that awful 48.98 that looks so dreadful into something more like a 49.2%.


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