Once bitten, twice shy

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He'll never get those months back
He’ll never get those months back

Maduro wants dialogue. He wants to sit down and have a chat with the murderous, fascist, imperialist, anti-homeland, drug-snorting, baby-eating, racist, mysoginist haters of the poor he calls the opposition.

That means you and me.

We’ve been through this before. Remember the “Mesa de Diálogo“? Last time the government and the opposition sat down to talk, it was 2003, and the OAS Secretary General had to make his residence in Caracas to make it happen.

Remember the outcome? Two documents came of this dialogue. A declaration for Peace and Against Violence, and a final agreement. It’s worth looking back at these.

Among other things, these documents stated that both sides, the government and the opposition, agreed to:

  • avoid “mutual recriminations, hurtful language, and any rhetoric that contributes or stimulates confrontation”;
  • form a Truth Commission to deal with the violence of those years;
  • reject insults or offense as a way of dealing with political differences;
  • call for peace and tolerance;
  • form an instance of permanent dialogue between the government and the opposition;
  • promote the disarmament of the civilian population;
  • form an independent, trustworthy, transparent, and impartial Electoral Council;
  • protect freedom of expression.

I really don’t have to stress that none of these points came to be. In fact, these points read like a recipe of everything that Venezuela deliberately is not.

So I say to Capriles and the rest of the opposition: ignore calls for dialogue. There is no possibility for any type of dialogue.

You want to talk? Try releasing Judge Afiuni. You wanna chat? Audit the election thoroughly. You wanna get together and chill? Fire Iris Varela. You’re serious about dialogue? Then don’t name Diosdado Cabello – who recently said the opposition could not even talk in the National Assembly – to lead a group for dialogue.

Dialogue requires trust. Show some signs you are open to dialogue. Show many of them. Otherwise, this is just an unserious charade.

None of this is going to happen, so there is no possible dialogue. And even if it was possible, I would vehemently oppose it – it is not going to lead anywhere, and there is nothing to gain by it.

Let’s not forget that one of the signatories of the documents referenced above was a guy named Nicolás Maduro.

1 COMMENT

  1. Glad to see that I am not the only one bringing back this sad episode of our history. AS for the participants then, one is dead, one is in exile, the others are near broke. All courtesy of the regime. carter Center? Fine, thank you, te manda saludos. Because let’s not forget they also were involved in setting up la mesa.

  2. Well said. Naming no other than Godgiven Hair to form part of this quest for “dialogue” is just.. laughable. IMO they’re just playing the press (just like the CNE did last Thursday).

      • “I’m not interested in contributing to [this] forum … I simply enjoy watching you all squirm around …” [Get a clue]

      • Calm down, you’re going to have a heart attack. Just let Chavismo die quietly, all this misdirected frustration and anger is not helping you.

        If you really want to help Chavismo instead of your wounded ego, you’d do well to focus on helping them implement more sensible policies since they are actually, you know, in power.

        • I am wondering what sort of avenues you suggest using to help Chavismo implement more sensible policies. The National Assembly seems to be the appropriate place for that…but, oh wait, I guess anyone that has any affiliation outside of Chavismo isn’t even allowed to speak at the Assembly.

      • I support Capriles. That doesn’t mean I agree with everything he says (though his press conference today was magical!) or that I don’t question his claims. In our previous discussion (if you can call it that), I was taking his examples and making my own conclusions, without trying to defend what he was saying. You just assumed I was blindly defending him, and that’s your problem. I encourage you to read over it again and re-evaluate.

        • ” I was taking his examples and making my own conclusions, without trying to defend what he was saying. ”

          Haha!! Yeah, its just that your conclusions ended up being the same nonsense “conclusions” that Capriles made, and you ended up defending everything he said. Honest much?

      • You have no morals to call anyone a liar. A few days ago you claimed the reason in these elections there were up to 10 times more votes in some tables (regardless of whether it increases by the same amount for Maduro and for Capriles) was because when in 2012 the CNE gave the first “boletin”, they only had a partial count for those tables (anyone who has been a member at a table knows it doesn’t work that way). Then when I tried to point out that to you, you tried to deviate the discussion in some other direction and avoided talking about the clear lie you’ve said.

        Who is dishonest jerk here?

        • Uh, actually anyone who looks at those counts can see immediately that it was only a partial count, since there were much more votes at the tables than what was actually tallied.

          And there WEREN’T 10 times more votes in 2013. There were practically the same amount of votes. Its just that more were tallied for one candidate or the other in 2013.

          But hey, its pretty pathetic if the only “irregularities” that you can point to for this election are actually irregularities for the 2012 election!! Hahahaha!! You have to be an enormous idiot to think that makes any sense at all.

          • ————————-
            “Uh, actually anyone who looks at those counts can see immediately that it was only a partial count, since there were much more votes at the tables than what was actually tallied.”
            ————————-

            You don’t send partial counts to CNE. Stop lying. Once a table is closed, the TOTAL results are printed from the machine, and those results are the ones that are sent to CNE. Why would a partial count be made at a table when you have a machine doing the full count after the table is closed?

            Good to know you are willing to keep up with the same lie only to appear consistent. I suppose you prefer to appear consistent even at the cost of proving conclusively that you are a dishonest jerk.

            —————————–
            “And there WEREN’T 10 times more votes in 2013. There were practically the same amount of votes. Its just that more were tallied for one candidate or the other in 2013.”
            ——————————

            In some tables there were around 9 total votes in the 2012 elections according to CNE, and then in 2013 we have around 80 votes in the same table. Want me to show you some examples? Better yet, why don’t you do some research?

            ——————————-
            But hey, its pretty pathetic if the only “irregularities” that you can point to for this election are actually irregularities for the 2012 election!! Hahahaha!! You have to be an enormous idiot to think that makes any sense at all.
            —————————–

            I’m not claiming here that there were irregularities in 2012 or not, I’m claiming that there is something very strange in CNE’s data. The data from 2012 and 2013 in many tables are incongruous with each other (and in some cases even with itself, I’ll tell you why if you ask). I’m willing to accept a reasonable explanation for this incongruity, but the one you gave is just pure bullshit.

          • “Why would a partial count be made at a table when you have a machine doing the full count after the table is closed?”

            That’s something you’ll have to explain isn’t it? Because anyone can see by looking at the results that there were way more votes at those centers than actually tallied for the candidates.

            “In some tables there were around 9 total votes in the 2012 elections according to CNE, and then in 2013 we have around 80 votes in the same table. ”

            Wrong. The number of votes hardly increased at all. Check Capriles’ bullshit examples. What increased was the percent of votes that were tallied. You can’t even get your nonsense fraud claims straight and you expect others to believe them?

            “I’m not claiming here that there were irregularities in 2012 or not, I’m claiming that there is something very strange in CNE’s data.”

            The only thing that is strange are the 2012 results at those tables. The 2013 results are not strange at all, and actually fit perfectly with the overall results in 2013.

            Keep trying my friend. Maybe you’ll eventually be able to pull something out of your ass that is half way believable.

          • Nueva Esparta is the ONLY example in which total votes increases significantly. In the other examples they barely increased, or actually DECREASED, in 2013. Keep on tryin’ my friend!

          • ————————————-
            “Why would a partial count be made at a table when you have a machine doing the full count after the table is closed?”

            That’s something you’ll have to explain isn’t it? Because anyone can see by looking at the results that there were way more votes at those centers than actually tallied for the candidates.
            ———————————–

            Yeah, Ok, and the explanation is?…..

            ———————————–
            “In some tables there were around 9 total votes in the 2012 elections according to CNE, and then in 2013 we have around 80 votes in the same table. ”

            Wrong. The number of votes hardly increased at all. Check Capriles’ bullshit examples. What increased was the percent of votes that were tallied. You can’t even get your nonsense fraud claims straight and you expect others to believe them?
            ———————————-

            That’s precisely the other strange thing (or actually is the same thing). Why would the sum of votes for both candidates not coincide with the number of total votes in the table according to CNE? It doesn’t make any sense. You have a machine doing all those counts for you.

            ———————————
            The only thing that is strange are the 2012 results at those tables. The 2013 results are not strange at all, and actually fit perfectly with the overall results in 2013.
            ———————————

            Geez! Look how much it took for you to finally at least partially admit there was something strange. I think I rather go pull out a tooth without anesthesia than keep talking to you.

          • I’ll say it again, just like I’ve said it a million times here now.

            The ONLY irregularities you have pointed to are from 2012, not 2013.

            Essentially your argument goes like this:

            “Hey, look at these weird results at a few mesas in 2012. That must mean there was fraud in 2013!!!”

            I couldn’t think of a dumber argument if I tried. What’s funny is that you continue to defend it, despite knowing that it makes no sense at all.

          • Essentially your argument goes like this:

            “Hey, look at these weird results at a few mesas in 2012. That must mean there was fraud in 2013!!!”
            ——————————

            I haven’t used the word fraud in any of my posts. You have a very nasty habit of putting words on people’s mouths, and then attack them for what you’ve said they’ve said. Go google “straw man fallacy”.

            We don’t really know what’s wrong with the results of 2012. Which number is incorrect? The total number of votes according to CNE or the sum of votes for both candidates? I admit it looks more likely that it is the second number that’s incorrect (based on the general level of abstention), but neither you or me really knows. In any case, these kind of things shouldn’t happen, and it puts a question mark on the reliability of the system (which doesn’t necessarily mean fraud has been intended). How big of a question mark depends on how often this kind of things happen, and also on the following question: when the total number of votes for the candidates were added nationwide for all the tables, which numbers did they use? The correct ones or the wrong ones?

            And why hasn’t CNE corrected those numbers after so many months?

          • Snore……. All electoral systems and all elections have minor irregularities like this. We are talking about a few hundred votes as the most. To act like this calls the whole election into question is absurdly stupid.

          • I’m not so sure it’s only a few hundred votes. In how many tables did this kind of things happen? You claim only a few of them. Capriles claims more than a thousand. One thing I tell you, I have no time to check all of them. I only checked a few. If you say you are really so certain that it happened only in a “couple” of tables, I assume you have done the check yourself (do you have a job?). Then the only way for me to continue this discussion is to go check those cases one by one (and in case you were right, and it only affected a few hundred votes, I wouldn’t have a problem admitting it), but since I have a life, I’ll stop here.

  3. Agreed, but partially. I acknowledge that Juan is the expert on Game theory here, but this looks very much like the Chicken game. We’re heading to the bad equilibrium, and I’m (still) not 100% sure that this would be beneficial for us in the long-term.
    What it’s clear for me is that:
    (1) This 50:50 situation makes the Government very uncomfortable. They seem to be looking for a game-changing event (aka que pisemos un peine… 2004 anyone?)
    (2) This wont end (nor improve) via media-driven dialogue.

    That being said, I understand that there is a problem of principles here and that we should stand firmly, but I don’t buy that it translates necessarily into a “Te doy hasta el Jueves” threat.

  4. Couldn’t agree more. HCR should not grant any form of legitimacy to such a farce. Sitting down to negotiate is only credible when both parties put something of value on the table. It is clear that the Maduro administration craves recognition and hence their proposal. However, such conversations would not result in any value for Capriles or Venezuela.

  5. Given Capriles’ speech I don’t think he’s going to budge. I think the more they are looking at this the more they have an opportunity to prove fraud.

  6. We all know the reality: this is a chavista stalling tactic to dissipate anger. But not talking is a recipe for being known as a devisive figure. Hcr’s strength is in appealing to everyone. I think he should talk, but point one would be to.review ‘progress’ since the last agreement.

  7. Gene Sharp’s
    From Dictatorship to democracy
    http://www.aeinstein.org/organizations/org/FDTD.pdf

    “Whatever promises offered by dictators in any negotiated settlement, no one should ever forget that the dictators may promise anything to secure submission from their democratic opponents, and then brazenly violate those same agreements.

    If the democrats agree to halt resistance in order to gain a reprieve from repression, they may be very disappointed. A halt to resistance rarely brings reduced repression. Once the restraining force of internal and international opposition has been removed, dictators may even make their oppression and violence more brutal than before.”

    • Solid principle! However, the economic decline is already being blamed on the opposition’s uprising. It might be better to scrap principle and watch the Government go down in flames. Hard to choose.

  8. Actions speak louder than words. Maybe Capriles should start waving these documents and ask if Mr. Maduro still believes in these things, or if he changed his mind – and why.

    I do think they’ve successfully avoided “mutual recriminations” much of the time. Those are often just one-sided. 😉

  9. Fuck them. They sowed winds, now they´ll haverst their tempest. They only want to dialogue because they are scared and know they are about to lose power. The tipping point is near and they know it, they are running scared of a Capriles and the people getting arrecho, there is negotiating with these vermin.

    • Yes, says the person who supports the oppo that caused the worst depression in Venezuelan history because of their hatred for the entire Venezuelan people because they could no longer loot the country and destroy the economy with neo liberal austerity measures. Funny how such delusions ensure the oppo will never win a fairly contested election and they are just to blind to realize it.

  10. Amen, Juan! I feel like at this point the only thing that would really work is a coup. The downside to it is that Capriles will not take over power like that. These people are so evil and perhaps a bit more clever than we give them credit for.
    They make my skin crawl and I hope we can get rid of all of them SOON.

    • Oh, dear…are you the one who recently wrote if it were you you would be burning tyres and throwing stones in Caracas? And you live in Paris? Why not in Caracas?
      Do you know what would happen if there were a coup? How is your knowledge of world history? La Violencia as happened in Colombia would be nothing compared to what would ensue. You haven’t learnt from 2002.

      I know foreign journalists love to interview people like you to embarrass us…like when they interviewed those Miami Venezuelans celebrating Chávez’s death.

      And I agree with what Juan wrote, by the way.

      • Well, you and I are never going to see eye to eye on this matter, which is fine. Hey! It’s the internet. Now, I will adress the offenses that you have led against me:
        Why am I in Paris? Because I decided to come here, a pasar trabajo, to further my education.
        Also, I happen to be a Venezuelan from Miami. Why did I move to Miami? It was out of my control. I was young when my parents decided to leave the country behind, with my brothers and I in tow. Growing up, my youngest brother was kidnapped and no one did anything about it, and I saw my father be held at gunpoint in our own home, when some thugs decided to break in. The day they finally announced Chavez’s death, was exactly 13 years since I left Venezuela. I did not celebrate, actually. I cried, alone. Just because I left does not make any less patriotic or any less “venezuelan”, contrary to how you may feel.
        I did not learn anything from 2002 because I was too young to understand. I honestly do hope you’re an expert in the matters that you have called me out on. Y por cierto, pasar trabajo es pasar trabajo, asi sea en Caracas, en Miami, o en Paris…por si se te olvida.
        What do you suggest people who are at their wits’ end do? What do you suggest as a resolution? And this, I ask, not in a tone of disdain, but with sincerity. I want to say there is no need to be aggressive, but seeing as my own comments (and your vigilance) tend to be inflammatory…descargate.

  11. anyone have full video of the complete conference (cadena included)? I missed it! and can’t find it. Only bits and pieces! Thanks!

  12. AMEN. Indeed the dialogue is not enought. We can’t sit to argue yet. First we need to free political prisioners, first the presidential reelection must be eliminated, first the gerrymandering to the Assambly must be fixed, first they must accept a proposition to fix the electric system and increase oil production…

  13. “So I say to Capriles and the rest of the opposition: ignore calls for dialogue. There is no possibility for any type of dialogue.”

    Spot on. Because promises are broken easily. C-O-N-C-E-S-S-I-O-N-S. F***ING CONCESSIONS.

    So, the answer should be a resounding “Until you make some concessions, and we mean real concessions, F**K YOU, you are still up the creek without a paddle and we are not going to help you indeed we are gonna do everything to send you to the bottom, you are trying to score easy points, here’s a list of demands”. We have been making all the concessions. Including the corrupt CNE. Those concessions should be for real. Rolling back of policies, firing certain people responsible for those policies, dropping of banal criminal cases, reducing the power of the government, a more balanced CNE, access to CNE, Fonden, etc. data, raw. No more indoctrination in the FANB, relegating the officers responsible for it. The works.

    Besides, according to them we’re no good, we have no power and we have nobody backing us in Venezuela. The only reason they might want to open dialogue with Diosdado Cabello of all people is to score some easy points.

      • Of course, because oppos have a right to be corrupt, commit fraud, and overthrow democratic governments without consequences. God forbid anyone should hold them to account for their crimes.

        • Yes it’s true. There are probably lots of members of the oppos who commit fraud and other crimes. Hugo Chavez attempted a coup! Talking about overthrowing democratic governments… not many oppos have tried that! Accountability? Let’s review the electrical grid for a start. Sabotage? Drought? Flood? How about an iguana! Remember that one?

          • The difference of course is that Chavez admitted his guilt and was sent to prison. Contrast that with the oppo crying about “political prisoners” when they are held responsible for worse offenses.

          • To a Court. Not to a Revolutionary Tribunal. There was a Judiciary then. They did never chant “Uh Ah CAP no se va!”

          • In fact they of the Supreme Court booted CAP out. Now the chances of that happening to the Comandante Lider Supremo Co(s)mico Eterno de la Luz, or to his Spiritual Son Maduro are infinitesimal.

        • To a Court. Not to a Kangaroo Court. For starters. Even if guilty, everybody deserves better than what passes for Courts in the Chavernment.

    • Yes because the oppo who brought Venezuela to the brink of total economic collapse when they were in power, raised the poverty rate to 70%, the inflation rate to over 100% and tried to secretly privatize PDVSA is totally in a position to say that. And of course the current government which is presiding over 5%+ economic growth, historically low inflation, and historically low levels of foreign debt and total debt is just going to surrender. Funny how exactly this attitude ensures the oppo will never gain power in a truly fair democratic election.

      • I bet there was no poverty before the oppos created it! By the way the economic growth was financed by debt. I think they call that “synthetic” economic growth!

        • The fact is that poverty decreased from a high of nearly 70% to 25%. And you apparently ignored the part where I referred to the historically low levels of foreign debt and total debt. That contrasts to the far higher levels of debt combined with no growth or negative growth through the 1990’s.

  14. IF THE GOVERNMENT IS SERIOUS ABOUT COOPERATING…. and this is Just a thought:

    I would consider working with the government to:
    (1) raise private equity funds to privatize state-owned cooperatives on the provision that these equity partnerships provide the management and the direction of those enterprises.
    (2) This initiative should be focused on key enterprises that can boost domestic production for basic goods that are in short supply.
    (3) The agreement should require a halt to government attacks on private enterprises and the so-called oligarchy as enemies of the people, and the initiative must be advertised on public media as a new redirection of the revolution.
    (4) Furthermore, the government must agree to abandon its policies abolishing private property rights.

  15. Looks like some in the free speech loving oppo camp don’t like the fact I am calling out Capriles on his constant lies. How funny, yet more proof of the oppos constant hypocrisy and complete refusal to accept legitimate criticism. I am sure they would not continue that attitude if they managed to lie their way into power right?

    • When they can’t make a coherent argument, they just delete comments. Its actually pretty funny how pathetic they are.

      • Yes I do find them amusing. The same people who always claim any unbiased statistics that show the progress Venezuela has made over the last 14 years are wrong because they disagree with something they heard on Globovision or read in an oppo newspaper. Of course when it comes to actually proving what they claim is obvious they can never ever back their claims with actual facts. And of course anyone who challenges their failure to provide facts that prove their beliefs is a “troll” who rudely refuses to become a part of their delusions.

    • Looks like the free speech loving Maduristas prefer putting political opponents in jail and starting a civil war rather than conducting a recount! Now that’s an attitude! It’s really standing up the frivolous oppo position, isn’t it!

        • “I am calling out Capriles on his constant lies. How funny, yet more proof of the oppos constant hypocrisy and complete refusal to accept legitimate criticism.”

          Ok, give me a list of his “constant lies”. Give me some examples of legitimate criticism he has refused to accept.

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