Annals of "Vamos a aguantar ese anuncio hasta que empiece el mundial"

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What a coincidence. A terrible inflation report, weeks overdue, just happens to get published on the day the World Cup kicks off.

5.7%. Two months in a row. Yikes.

BTW, how’s that “peak inflation” theory workin’ out for you, Mark?

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1 COMMENT

  1. If Venezuela had been in the World Cup they would have announced a 10% inflation the second that Venezuela scored a goal. And a gas price increase. And that Maduro shaved his moustache and now looks remarkably similar to Diosdado but we swear it isn’t Diosdado

  2. Thank you for the helpful mention of Mr. Weisbrot. Certainly now he will rush to take responsibility for his error, and explain which of his underlying assumptions will now have to be revised. Perhaps he can use this very “comments section” to do so. Take it away, Mark Weisbrot!

      • Look at the summary of an article he wrote a few years ago on Venezuela:

        “This paper looks at Venezuela’s export revenue, imports, and trade and current account balances under a range of oil price outcomes for the next two years. It finds that Venezuela would run large current account surpluses for prices between $60-90 per barrel, and would even run a small surplus with prices at $50 per barrel. (Most oil industry estimates for the next two years are in the range of $80-90 per barrel). The authors conclude that Venezuela is unlikely to run into foreign exchange constraints in the foreseeable future, and can pursue expansionary fiscal policies to counter any economic downturn.”

        Hilarious. Maybe as a group effort we can dig up a few of his most obviously wrong and dishonest “economic analysis” work on the Venezuela.

        • Repeat what Ive posted before that the per bl price by itself doesnt determine Venezuelas net available oil revenues ( which is what counts) , production volume per type of crude and associated production and handling costs are also a big factor as are the discounts and subsidies granted preferred customers and local market as are the imports of crude and products which have to be made in order to meet local gasoline demand and be able to mix extra heavy crudes with products / light crudes which allow it to be sold into world markets. The hemorraghe of domestic production to Colombia also has a big impact.

          Quick back of the envelope calculations tells us that as production of light medium crudes declines and extra heavy crude production rises the economic structure of the business changes substantially bringing in much reduced net revenues . Also discounts/ highly favoured payment terms given cuba petrocaribe cono sur countries affect revenues as do the mechanics of paying the Chinese their loans thru oil proceeds which are for the most part retained in chinese banks and never paid to Pdvsa . Transaction cost of mismanagement and corrupt operations also take a heavy toll on fhe amounts which are finally left over for use by the govt to cover countries currency needs .

          Production costs are also affected by the need to increase maintenance costs of operations on depleted oil fields not to raise production but simply to keep it from falling too precipitously. The simplistic approach to the calculation of oil revenues common in economic analysts is shameful and misguiding .

          The per bl price references on which Weisbrodt relies for his ‘predictions’ are totally irresponsible .!!

  3. how the f*ck did you create the horizontal axis? “Febrery”? Really? Fiebre?? Fiebrudo??? Come on man, clean it up a bit. Excel sucks but not quite that much.

    • With the exception of February, all year-over year comparisons indicate inflation is growing. YoY is the standard way of comparing economic indicators; it takes into account the seasonality of the economy.

      • Yeah, na na na na, but:: what’s standard? Ah? Ah? What’s standard? It’s such a capitalist fascist term!

        Chavismo has brought new measurements to gauge how the economy is improving.

        Stop using capitalist indicators! Use Chavista indicators!

  4. “BTW, how’s that “peak inflation” theory workin’ out for you, Mark?”
    —————————–

    Oh, his theory is working pretty well for him. He has a very simple computer program that implements his theory. It reads as follows:

    for k=1 to N=any_number_of_months do;
    if inflation_of_month[k] > inflation_of month[k-1]
    then “just don’t say anything”;
    endif;
    if inflation_of_month[k] < inflation_of_month[k-1]
    then print["You see, inflation is going down.
    The revolution is a success!!!"];
    endif;
    enddo;

  5. Read current head of the Govts Statistics Institute ( Eljuris) is talking with the BCV to change the criteria for measuring things such as inflation and poverty levels .

    One idea is to do what Cuba has done for years , to attribute to their nationals a phantom income represented by the virtual cost of the free govt education, health care and housing so they appear as earning a higher income that they actually recieve.

    Soon our inflation levels will appear pared down through some accounting gimmick which will make Venezuela look as if there was no inflation and as if poverty levels are falling !!

    Ive looked at other govt numbers (which i can check elsewhere for accuracy) and noted a tendency not to give totally invented figures but rather numbers that have been streched or narrowed by a margin that makes the govt look somewhat better. However if they change the criteria for measuring economic facts then they can really modify the results to their advantage .

    • True, this. Even the U. S. did similar some 20+ years ago to underestimate consumer price inflation (and, thereby, lower Social Security payments); similar is done for U. S. unemployment, which shadow estimates typically have at least as 2x official estimates. As for Venezuelan unemployment, it’s at least 50% when using standard developed country methodology of stable employment with benefits.

  6. One of the funniests parts of the report is that they make a point of noting that twelve month inflation after May was 60.9% , lower than the 61.5% in April. Of course, this is due to removing the May 2013 peak and is meaningless in terms of decreasing inflation.

    • You just need to look for the upside! Stop being such a pessimist; the change in the rate of annualized inflation has decreased 1% over the previous month. Sure, that’s not dropping the actual rate of inflation, but the change in the rate; you have to look for the silver lining! I’m sure we’ve seen peak inflation!

      ^^^^

      Channeling Mark Weisbrot.

      I’m personally (un)excited for the July and August numbers in September (or October/November). Annualized at somewhere around 67-68% by then.

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