Why I'm relieved that CNE wants to eliminate some opposition safe seats

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Chamo estamos perdiendo como por esto...
Chamo estamos perdiendo como por esto...
Chamo vamos perdiendo como por esto…

Over in El Universal, Puzkas has a scoop on CNE’s plans to redraw the National Assembly district boundaries to eliminate a number of safe oppo seats.

El proyecto, facilitado por técnicos electorales del PSUV disminuye la cantidad de diputados que se escogen la circunscripción 2 de Miranda, la cantidad de diputados tipo lista en el Distrito Capital o modifica el número de parlamentarios que se elegirán en la circunscripción 1 de Nueva Esparta.

Además, aumenta la cantidad de diputados a elegir en la circunscripción 6 del estado Aragua, la circunscripción 1 de Barinas y la circunscripción 1 de Guárico.

Disgusting, you say. Typical barely disguised CNE partisanship, right? Well sure.

And yet, on balance, I see this as a positive sign.

Why?

Because if they’re thinking along these lines, that tells me they’re still planning to have an election. And with the opinion climate the way it is now, 4 or 5 won’t make a difference. All it would do is leave PSUV 29 or 30 seats in the Assembly, out of 167, instead of 25.

That’s not even an exaggeration.

In the latest Datanalisis generic ballot question, the opposition is outpolling the government 61-27 in the generic ballot question for national assembly, with independents third parties picking up the remaining votes. In the head-to-head matchup between PSUV and MUD, then, MUD is ahead 69-31. Plug those numbers into our 2010 Legislative Election Forecasting Tool and it forecasts a 140-25 MUD landslide.

Other pollsters suggest similar catastrophic margins. Delphos’s generic ballot has the MUD ahead 66.8 to 33.2 in the head-to-head matchup, which would mean 137 seats for the opposition (or, well, 132 after these boundary changes.) DatinCorp has the MUD ahead by pretty much the same margin.

Interestingly Keller, which usually has an opposition slant, has the “worst” scenario for the opposition winning the head-to-head matchup by 56.6% to 43.4% and ending up with 109 opposition seats in the Assembly.

2015 is not 2003, when a last-minute surge in government spending could still result in a useful last minute bump in the polls: not only because the government’s coffers are pretty much tapped out and nobody is willing to keep lending to it, but also – more importantly – because the economic policy framework is so insane that even a short-term boost in spending wouldn’t lead to tangible improvements.

The government knows how to cheat its way to a majority in a Venezuelan election when it’s within striking distance of its target. But the government is miles and miles away from its target, losing by a 2-to-1 margin in most polls. People hate their guts, hate what they’ve done to their livelihoods, just plain don’t believe them. There’s no mobilizing a base that hates your guts, no get-out-the-vote-machine when the people who’d have to run it are sick to death of you. And in the Datanalisis poll series, the opposition’s lead is widening, not shrinking.

In these circumstances, what we really need to fear isn’t that they’ll try to cheat on a few seats here or a few seats there, because this isn’t going to be the kind of election decided by a few seats. What we need to fear is that they won’t have an election at all. That’s why the more noises they make suggesting they’re sweating a-few-seats-here-and-a-few-seats-there the easier I breathe.

PSUV looks to be sleepwalking into an epic AN drubbing. Epic.

75 COMMENTS

  1. People hate Maduro’s gut, not the system. That is what I see. Too many think the system is good but it has not been implemented correctly. I hope I am wrong, very wrong. 🙂

    • true, but the same could have been said of people in Cuba, people in “Democratic” Germany, people in the Soviet countries, etc. The reality is that most brainwashed people with the socialist memetic virii will stay with the parasitic condition lodged in their brain stem for the rest of their lives. That doesn’t mean that there can be coping mechanisms to treat the condition, even if it becomes chronic

    • Sorry but u are wrong . Venezuelan ppl know the system is the problem not maduro . all media is controlled by government Operators .

  2. I doubt we’re going to even surpass 55%. I just can’t see these kinds of results. Sorry Quico, but I can’t share your optimism. To see Tibisay come out of the balcony and say the MUD has won in a 20-30 point landslide? Well, if it happens, you can rub it on my face all you want, but I’m not ready to think that’s what’s going to happen just yet.

    To me, this is terrible news. They’re taking out a deputy in the safest Oppo district and putting him in one of the most solid chavista districts in the country.

  3. Random question if anyone can answer. How close were the results of the 2010 election to the Data Analysis polling at the time? Aren’t they generally the most accurate pollster?
    Thanks…

    • Extrapolation from earlier results is less helpful than may seem, as pollsters would likely adjust methods to correct for bias. Could be to improve correlation to elections results, or to help gain more business.

  4. Gerrymandering is a very effective tool if you have at least 45% of the population. If you’re down by 30% it won’t save you. I’m from Guarico and my cousin who works for the opposition in a small town there called Las Mercedes told me that their last poll shows that the Oposition is ahead of PSUV by about 4%. We’re talking about a place where Chavez got 70% and Nicolas like 60%. There’s no such thing as a chavista safe district for this election. I stick by your prediction Francisco. They’re gonna end up suspending the election

  5. This theory actually makes a whole lot of sense. Supported by data, logical conclusions and a great theoretical framework. Yet call me cynical, but I don’t think these red morons are thinking they can actually win. It’s way too much to hope that they are really that blind and confident. My guess? They go along with the elections but they throw up some self inflicted coup d’etat or bomb threat that throws a wrench into the process while they rig the results. Or they simply say “We won. Why? Cause fuck you, that’s why, no volverán”.

  6. I love those moments when we say “we got them,” and then, five months after, we write “we didn’t know what was going on, we are doomed” or “we did not see that coming” or “our opposition sucks” or “they cheated”

    • I agree, we have seem this picture before, it seems to be a never ending circle of enthusiasm and dissapointment, the country had never been this bad tho. My guess would be a huge abstention and a 52-55% popular vote win for the opposition, wathever number of seats chavistas get from this would be a huge victory for Maduro. In any case I would urge people not to get carried away by these polls yet.

      So many people have been so brainwashed into thinking that the opposition is the worst thing that ever existed on earth that they just could not touch the blue button even if they wanted to.

      • Chávez Fraudmatic: “Oh, my friend, we are talking about a FUBAR situation now. Did you not plan for this contingency? I mean, the Starship Enterprise had a self-destruction button! Just kidding. We can do this. We developed this new algorithm that counts abstention votes as pro-PSUV votes, just the enough to win, we don’t want any extravagance here, as you know. It will be a 2-3% difference. How do we like it? That’s right. We like it discreet. And by the end of the day, the papelitos will be 100% accurate just like Mr. Toro likes his papelitos.”

        Hahahaha!

  7. Francisco’s calculations make sense as do the caveats and fears of others , but even if the election is somehow suspended or its consequences stolen its not something that can be hidden , and just the fact that people realize the fact is a powerful psychological weapon in the battles to come . That shouldnt lull the opposition into a state of overconfidence , the fight is one for every inch of ground and blows are going to rain hard on peoples head but in the end as things stand the oppo is coming out ahead. Much better that has been the case in the last 15 years .

  8. Lets look at these events no as win lose situations but as moves in a strategic game where every point you make gets you closer to your goal !!

  9. I don’t know, chamo, I don’t know

    Predicting abstention is probably more difficult than political sympathies. If there’s high abstention there’s a good chance government maquinaria will bring the result closer to 55-45. And we already know that’s basically a tie.

    It’s good that by know it seems the elections will occur. Though, it’d be a mistake to underestimate chavismo’s ability to cheat…

  10. Quico forgets to adress:

    1. How the MUD is also despised by a large chunk of oppo supporters and “hopeless chavistas”
    2- How this kind of election typically does not attract too much voters to begin with.

    Abstention will champion that day, y de los cuatro pelagatos que votaran ese dia, tres seran chavistas. End of story.

  11. You are an optimist. I sincerely hope you are right: the government will hold elections and receive a shellacking, as Obama would say.

    I, like you, disbelieve in “gut analysis” and tend to trust data but, is this good data? as in, are you considering every factor with an influence on an electoral result? You never mention abstention here, or include it in your expectations.

    I would like to read these Datanalisis series. Do you have the link?

    • I was present at a high-level private sector meeting 2 months before the Chavez first comfortable Presidential victory where the President/owner of Datanalysis scoffed that Chavez had NO chance of winning (I was literally the only one in the 70-attendee room that predicted Chavez would win, and had been saying so for 6 months). Now, as for this Parliamentary election, logic would say that the Oppo should win, but that assumes that there will actually be an election, and that the 60% of non-witnessed Oppo election tables will not be stuffed with 60-70% Govt. votes, making at least a Govt. Parliamentary majority, albeit maybe a squeaker rather than the usual large majority. There are too many Govt.-dependent Petro-State peons, especially in the somewhat over-weighted non-Oppo-witnessed Interior regions of Venezuea, who are afraid to vote against the Govt., especially with the fingerprint ID machines, and where the 6 million non-registered but CNE “registered” voters’ votes can be plugged in at will.

  12. If the government win in more circuits, it doesn’t matter if the oposition gets more votes overall, i would like to know how is the opposition polling in Portuguesa or Delta Amacuro.

  13. “The government knows how to cheat its way to a majority in a Venezuelan election when it’s within striking distance of its target. But the government is miles and miles away from its target, losing by a 2-to-1 margin in most polls. ”

    Finally a reasonable post on this by Fraudmatic’s enthusiast, Mr. FT.

    I agree, methinks even Masburristas aren’t stupid enough to steal the upcoming, almost meaningless “elections”.

    Not that they couldn’t easily “win” by 55%, with Chavez’s Smartmatic automated fraud machines, plus the Millions of Grateful Dead followers worldwide, dead or alive, plus Bolivians, Chinese and such hala-bolas with 3 brand-new cedulas each. Walk in the park.

    But no one is THAT dumb. Are they? Turning 80% disapproval into a fake win would really piss people off, even our dormant populace full of enchufados y pendejos. (They will steal CHEAT, make no mistake, just to flex their muscles, training for the real Presidential elections. So they will admit a “defeat”, but a much smaller % than the obvious reality.)

    Anyway, these “parliamentary” elections are a joke: what “parliament” or “poder legislativo” or any separation of powers, for that matter, exists anyway in Corruptzuela? It’s a freaking Dictatorship, Cabello and the Military Enchufados plus a few clowns Dictate.

    And as FT suggests, they’ll just play a bit with the “seats”, send some to prison, threaten others’ families, bribe the majority, and do whatever they want, anyway.

    So they’ll still have complete control and will continue to tighten up the totalitarian repression, bolt by bolt, as we see every week.. more Terror Tactics, now using the stupid Obama list to fake support and instill fear in our ignorant people.

    Until the Real, Presidential Elections. For those, they will have to use the heavy artillery:

    Fraudmatic, of course, plus every other means necessary.

    • Good analysis. And the plan B is indeed just to arrest the ones who eventually win. Like they did with MCM, Ledezma, the one from SC etc.

  14. Google this up (link doesn’t work)…

    “Manual precinct-level counting is the best–the only transparent way”

    Plus all of the other abominable news with Fraudmatic in the Philippines. .

  15. Y pensandolo bien, pretending to “lose” the ‘Elecciones Parlamentarias de la Republica Bolivariana’ by a small margin.. would look great nationally and Internationally, further masquerading the Chavista Regime as a “democracy”, thus perpetuating the illusion, while they continue to steal all they want, waiting for the Oil price to go back to $100 in 2020. Bienvenidos a Cubazuela ‘pal 2030!!

  16. This yanqui has spent considerable time trying to learn as much as he can about the fascinating, tragi-comedy that is Venezuelan politics. The answer to one big question continues to escape me:

    Let’s say there is an election and the good guys win, big-time. A clear mandate for change.

    Then what?

  17. The more that these folks act the fool in repression, dirty elections, etc., the less power they will have on the international and national stage. This just marginalizes them more. Even if they win the election, everyone will now know that it would be a fraud of leadership. They are doomed. It really will not be long until those who have been bankrolling this clown car of a government and the government’s associates with the money (you know, the drug dealers and organized crime) will start leaving in droves and heading to hidey holes in different hell hole nations. Their abuelas can’t get their medicine and their sobrinos have no hope for the future. Even the most callous among us know that such a situation will not last for long.

  18. This doesn’t make sense. Shifting the electoral districts to break up Oppo solid voting areas will move Oppo voters into districts that Chavismo might have won otherwise. When the general numbers favor the Oppo, Chavismo’s strategy should be to consolidate all of the Oppos possible in as few districts as possible, so as not to contaminate the districts where they think they can win.

    Or, am I missing something here?

    • Just hope they’re stupid enough to cheat, in grotesque matter, on these useless “parliamentary” elections.

      See if our pueblo aguevoneao finally wakes up.

    • The Parlatino decision is extremely revealing of their fear that if we have any kind of election they will get clobered and that once people realize how weak the’ve become their people will start jumping their boat by droves .

  19. The MUDs campaign slogan should be “now or never” or “the whole enchilada or bust”

    Venezuela is like an old friend I have who didn’t study for exams because he feared disappointment over low grades

    • Some days ago I read a very simple definition on how motivation operates in a person every day life.

      To be motivated one must believe in three things:

      Firstly, that if he increases his efforts, he will achieve better results.
      Secondly, that these better results will make a difference, that they won’t be useless.
      Thirdly, that this difference caused by the better results will help him achieve his personal goals.

      I thought that it was pretty accurate. Your friend, I believe, didn’t think that studying for the exams would bring better grades. Probably because of traumatic events in the past, he started associating the ‘useless studying’ with low grades. And he was probably right. His studying probably sucked big time, hehe.

      Consciously or not, we create blogs like CC, study for exams, form political parties and run for elections because we believe in these three things above. It’s probably very hard for Venezuelan politicians to believe that bigger efforts will bring better results, given the current authoritarian political scenario.

      • Gotta agree with your analysis of motivational drivers

        Actually, I think my friend was (is?) just really lazy 🙂 but there may have been some conditioning after the fact. Also, he knew he could rely on friends (suckers like me) to help him out. In the end it kinda payed off for him, there is some value to learning to delegate work, but like Venezuela, if you then find yourself friendless, without power, or without money then you are screwed.

    • “Venezuela is like an old friend I have who didn’t study for exams because he feared disappointment over low grades”

      ha! too funny

    • It’s about time to say: the MUD is a piece of crap, our opposition is a lamentable Mess, full of antagonization personal interests and without direction. Copey, AD, Causa R, and that crap, what did you expect? Mediocres. Plus they’ve also been corrupted, to a large extent, “Chavistas Light” as Diego Arria call’em.

      Government: Corrupt Thieves, under-educated bastard.
      Opposition: Semi-corrupt under-educated mediocres
      Pueblo: Lazy, way uneducated, corrupt, lazy, enchufados, cuanto hay ‘pa eso.

      No wonder, when you do the math, we get what we got.

      • Yes , lets just give up and do nothing except keep ourselves incensed at how unfair life is !! very constructive attitude !! Hey Coromoto is a sweet name , makes us like you instantaneously , association with the virgin of Coromoto and all that , Many coromotos now in the blogs and social media , giving the same message !!

  20. Those three motives sound logical , but sometimes people are so pissed off at something that they will fight hard against it regardless of the high or low chances of a successful result , just to get at what they hate , just to cause it injury , just because they feel their dignity demands it . Other times they lay low for a long time and just wait for the opportunity that allows them to get back against those they hate . People in Venezuela have been dealt a griveous injury , their lives have been sacrificed and battered by shortages , and rampant inflation and a general fall in the quality of life , and something thats no always mentioned which is being forced to live inside a world of gross perpetual lies .!!

  21. Oh great! It’s groundhog day in the oppo academics and pseudo analysts camp. To phrase it better and as Yogi Berra would put it, it’s deja vu all over again.

    I am always suprised by how irrationally optimistic hard-core oppo supporters turn ahead of the elections, despite the usual and amazing display of ZERO planning skills from our all-star oppo politicians team (former Hall of Fame members include Manuel Rosales and Ricardo Sanchez).

    And yes, data, data, data. Polls, polls, polls. Always the same story before the elections and then the subsequent disappointment. Well, I am going to stick to recent history (i.e. FACTS) as opposed to “data” because I guess someone has to.

    The usual axiom will still need to be applied in this case: mediocre politicians, mediocre results.

    Mr. Toro Torito, btw, a bit off-topic but have you noticed how the apocaliptic Venezuelan default scenario is now beginning to get pushed forward in time? Going from the imminent 2015 default to the 70% likely default on 2016, to the now “unavoidable” 2017 collapse. Aha! The perpetual and timeless forecast technique (which I’m sure you are very familiar with) and which NEVER gets tested. Well, I am your test and guess what, you have been wrong, you are wrong and every day that goes by, prices move, coupons accrue, coupons get paid, capitalization works its magic and your mistake, my friend, worsens by the day. Clap, clap, clap.

    • Venny you are as usual misinformed , maybe havent talked to your friends in the BCV or Pdvsa recently , doesnt the regime keep its trolls informed ?? they are engaged in a desperate struggle to avoid default, going for any chance however small of gaining a bit of extra time , they dont know from one day to the next whether they will be able to make it , maybe it isnt this year but no certainties , if not 2016 is really a difficult hurdle , think they will make it ?? Dont you have any contact among the Chinese ?? talk to them and find out how they see things . Not a dime unless secured with future oil deliveries , Maybe that tells us something about how much they trust the regimes capacity to pay its huge debt load .!!

      • Bill, as usual you with the same incorrect perception that I am troll. Just for expressing a different opinion that goes against your la-la land thoughts.

        I don’t have friends in the govt. and there is nothing that will make me happier than to see the another thing play out in the country other than the gorillas in power. However, pseudo specialists and people like you are part of the problem as they fail to understand the real issues of the country. But sure, please enlight all of us as to what the right steps to find a solution are – it’s not like your same oppo-radical thoughts haven’t been applied for 15 years straight with poor results.

  22. One thing we must never forget is that the government following Russian /Cuban methods of psychological warfare have a large group of people (with changing names) dedicated full time to infiltrating blogs and social media , purporting to be opposition or enemies of the govt but cunningly trying to seed confusion and defeatist attitudes so as to have people fight each other and ultimately take the high moral position that they should abstain from voting because the MUD or other oppo candidates are flawed or that its useless to vote because the govt holds all the cards and will just commit fraud anyway .

    They do this because whatever the chances of the govt engaging in fraudulent practices or the flaws of some of the oppo candidates , if enough people vote against them, whatever frauds they commit it weakens their credibility and makes them vulnerable when the next stage in the strategic game is played . Any oppo abstention counts as a vote for the Regime . Dont be fooled into playing their game !!

    • More than happy to take you for a real debate any time you want. I am 100% Venezuelan and yes, I don’t feel identified with opposition muppets due to their lack of preparation. You sound as delusional as Aporrea forum members frankly. Because of conformists and mediocre positions like yours we are where we are. Is this how you plan to move the country forward? How old are you? I am guessing 40-50? No wonder why we ended up like this.

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