Tipping Point Circuits: Lara 2 and Guárico 2

Other possible Tipping Point Circuits for the 84th (simple majority) seat are much more rural, and see the opposition at its cotufa best, running a farándula columnist, a folk singer, and a former CNE commissioner.

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Of course, it’s not written in stone that DC1 is the circuit that will definitely tip us over into a simple majority. The two other circuits most likely to tip us to a simple majority are Lara 2, and Guárico 2: much more rural circuits where the opposition has historically struggled. 

Lara 2

a.k.a., To Carora and beyond!

Tipping Point Circuit Maps.002

Where the hell is that? Rural Western Lara, Carora

Municipios Jiménez, Moran, Andres E Blanco, Torres, Urdaneta, Crespo

This rural circuit elects two deputies. The opposition has not done brilliantly in the past. Chavismo won it easily five years ago (in what was a three-way race back then, as Henri Falcon’s PPT was running as an alternative option). This time, it elects two deputies – down from 3 in 2010 – and the opposition’s choices are both…interesting.

First we have Roland Carreño. Yes, the Roland Carreño. Better known – in fact, exclusively known – as a farándula journalist, I never even knew Roland Carreño was into politics.  Carreño was born out here – in Aguada Grande, to be precise – but whether he’s spent much time here in the last few decades seems doubtful. How impressed the good burghers of Carora are meant to be to have the king of the Caracas gossip column representing their interests in parliament is hard to say.

Then we have Solbella Mejías. Yes, the Solbella Mejías. A former opposition-alligned member of the National Electoral Council, Mejías isn’t exactly doing a great deal to showcase our earnest conviction that people who are picked to run elections shouldn’t be explicitly partisan. I mean, isn’t this kind of thing exactly what used to drive us mad about Jorge Rodríguez? Anyway, Mejía seems to be another beneficiary of the mad, last-minute scramble to find women candidates when CNE announced a new gender balance requirement.

Also, she’s married to MP Edgar Zambrano, who leads the MUD’s list vote in Lara. Both are AD leaders. So we get a dose of nepotism, too, mixed in with the adequismo endógeno. Lovely people.

For its part PSUV dropped one of its two incumbents from last time, Alexander Dudamel in favor of German Ferrer. Also a sitting deputy:

Be warned: his jingle may give you ear cancer,

The other incumbent, Julio Chavez is, second only to Governor Reyes Reyes, the most important PSUV guy in the State. He’s the current head of the AN’s Mass Media Commission and has pushed restrictive legislation against free press. He also constantly denounces many opposition plans against the State.

As expected, both are giving away lots of goodies in their campaign.

If this Delphos poll published by Prodavinci is accurate: the MUD has a fighting chance in Lara 2: it’s ahead by a whisker, 42% to 39 %, with 14% undecided. Really a dead heat. We better hope we do better than that: if the opposition can’t win out here, it’s hard to see how it can win nationally.

Another possible tipping point state for the simple majority is:

 

Guárico 2

a.k.a., Altagracia de Plo Plo

Tipping Point Circuit Maps.003

Where the hell is that? Noreste de Guárico: Altagracia de Orituco

Municipios Monagas, Chaguaramas, Ribas, San Jose de Guaribe

Another rural circuit, this one the site of the recent assassination of an AD regional leader. In fact, it was while he was on the stage campaigning for local folk-singer/opposition activist Rumualda (“Rummy”) Olivo that Luis Manuel Diaz was gunned down on stage. Worrying: we can’t afford to lose places like this.

 

 

 

The PSUV candidate, Juan Marín, isn’t nearly as much fun:

His jingle’s pretty catchy, though:

9 COMMENTS

  1. But again: Are these seats so important that we couldn’t afford to lose them in order to gain the simple majority? I’d argue that they’re the tipping point for a bigger prize: the 3/5ths. Both circuits are the more chavista circuits of theor states. If I recall correctly, Capriles got only 41.6% in Lara’s C2 in 2013, and got below 40% in Guárico’s C2 (pf course, you can’t compare presidential results to thos election, but we need something to base our predictions right?). I think the MUD could afford to lose these seats to win the simple majority, sonce there are more circuits where we’ve posted better results over the years and should be won more easily than these.

    Also, if I recall correctly, Lara’s C2 elected two deputies in 2010, the number of seats hasn’t changed there.

  2. Last time in Lara C2 also give 2 seats.
    C2 is more a pathway to 2/3 oe 3/5 mayority that a simple one.
    C1 in Lara os the one to watch

  3. Quico, what are your thoughts on C1 de Monagas? According to the poll posted on Prodavinci 50% of the people still don’t know who they’re going to vote for. This circuit is major, first because it elects 3 seat on parliament, also because it’s Diosdi’s beloved home state. I vote on this district and I’m so worried we lose there. I cannot see El Pollo Carvajal actually winning the elections. I just can’t

  4. those circuits elect the deputies 114 and 115 (Lara 2) and 127 (Guarico 2) for the opposition if comparing these election with the last one in 2013 (presidential),

    so if the opp wins those circuits then it will take more than 2/3 and possibly 3/4 of the parliament,

    by the other hand Monagas´ C1 elects the deputies 90, 91 and 92,

  5. Quico, this post actually makes me incredibly nervous. If we are up 30 nationally and that only puts us up 3 in Lara 2 (which you say is a district that only gets us to a simple majority), then that means this election will be VERY easy to steal.

    All the government needs is a bit of confusion on the ballot (which they have), a few people to not know where they are voting (which they are causing), or a few unwatched polls in rural areas (which they will have) and they will be able to hold on to parliament.

  6. I work for the MUD in Guarico. We conducted a poll in circuit 2 last month which showed Rummy was ahead by 21%. The margin of error was 3.5%

    • Antonio, this is a really surprise considering the distance was over 20 pct last election against the opp,

      what about the numbers in Guarico´C1 and C3? any polls? in those 2 circuits the gaps were smaller in 2013 than C2, maybe the ceiling to one side and the floor to the other are on the move,

      what about the impact of the shooting on the voters? any info?

  7. (Disclosure: I’m a friends with Sobella.)

    I find it quite unserious and unnecessary the way you make vague and negative statements about the candidates you dislike or just don’t know. I just don’t get the point of gratuitous and uninformed defamation about them.

    Sobella has been in politics for 40 years (from her teens), living and working as a social and political activist in Lara for 8 years, strongly driving all of the MUD campaigns in that time (including her own primaries-contender for mayor, and every other MUD campaign). She has probably walked and talked to more rural, isolated and deprived communities than many opposition politicians, and is one of the best received opposition politicians in the rural areas of Lara. And she is actually a lawyer which is what the congress is supposed to be about, and one specialised on one of the hottest topics on hand: elections. The fact that she is married to another politician, or that she has a specific political affiliation shouldn’t be a limitation for someone to exercise their right to run for public office. And the electoral council, that is 10 years ago! should that ban her from having a partisan affiliation ever after? She may have many flows I’m sure, and she indeed was called after the gender balance requirement, but instead of checking whether she has any credentials you chose to assume she is only there for nepotic, partisan, opportunistic reasons, and imply so in your article.

    (also a small typo: Solbella –> Sobella)

    Out of the rant, I hope I’ve managed to explain my point: if you know something, go and say it, make a full, supported, debatable critic. If you don’t, then making an uninformed impliedly negative statement is just defamation, and given the position that CC is gaining/trying-to-gain, this can be quite harmful for the specific actors and for the political discussion in general.

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