Signing off after a thrilling, historic night that had everything: carometro, crazy rumors, a DDoS attack, BarandaTime.

6D has upended everything everyone thought they knew about Venezuelan politics.

There’ll be so much more to blog in the days ahead. So much more.

LIVE BLOG

12:45: Maduro babbling about Arbenz.

12:44: Maduro gives subdued address. Then pivots to blame the “Economic War.”

12:34: OFFICIAL RESULTS

PSUV 24 circuit seats + 22 list seats = 46 seats.

MUD 72 circuit seats + 27 list seats = 99 seats.

22 still not called.

12:33:
 A LOT of circuits are not going to have winners announced: Amazonas 1, Apure 1, Aragua 2, Aragua 3, Aragua 4, Carabobo 4, Guarico 1, Guarico 2, Guarico 3, Lara 2, Monagas 1, Merida List. Jezum.

74% Turnout

12:28: Tibisay: Espiritu Cívico, bla bla.

12:27: Tibisay on the move.

12:17: Serious talk now of a negotiation to give the MUD 108 seats, instead of the 113 we won.

11:28: Rumour that we won in Vargas. VARGAS. V-a-r-g-a-s. (Not confirmed.)

11:26: VP headquarters son una fiesta: hugs, bleary sleep-deprived eyes and elation.

11:00: 

10:45: This:

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10:39: We’ll take the time now to remind you our forecasting model projected 111 seats for MUD.

224

10:33: MUD to win 113 seats. Gamechanger.

10:23: A 2/3rd qualified majority is possible. Maybe likely.

10:11: Mood in the opposition simply joyous.

10:06: VTV showing international news. En serio.

10:02: VP’s Freddy Guevara: The country has taken an absolutely clear decision. There’s no reason to keep this waiting room going. We have made history. We have overcome all the obstacles of the most unfair campaign in Venezuelan history.

9:59: Miranda 4 (Barlovento) goes to PSUV.

9:56: TalCual: Opposition wins at least 98 seats.

9:55: Opposition MUD coalition wins National Popular Vote by margin of at least a two million votes.

9:54: In Petare, MUD candidate Miguel Pizarro doubles William Ojeda’s vote, MIN-Unidad dirty trick and all.

Photo: LuzMely Reyes
Photo: LuzMely Reyes

9:50: Nicmer Evans, of leftwing breakaway group Marea Socialista “El pueblo habló y los resultados son consecuencia de las acciones e inacciones políticas de los protagonistas, ahora a reflexionar.”

9:46: MUD set to win both list seats in Táchira, more than doubling the PSUV tally.

9:45: MUD has won no fewer than 95 seats, a qualified majority is possible.

9:30: MUD scores won a clean sweep of seats in Distrito Capital. All of them.

A military-led attempt to revert this fact by keeping voting centers open and pressuring people to the polling places is underway.

We apologize for the problems with but we have been under DDoS attack for much of the night. Caracas Chronicles prides itself in not calling an election until we are certain, and at this point we are certain that the MUD has won the election for the National Assembly.

140 COMMENTS

  1. Supposedly, we did well, but not great…Up enough for a majority, but not enough for 3/5…We will see after these shenanigans though…

  2. And Crispin Crispian shall ne’er go by,
    From this day to the ending of the world,
    But we in it shall be remembered-
    We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
    For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
    Shall be my brother; be he ne’er so vile,
    This day shall gentle his condition;
    And gentlemen in England (Venezuela) now a-bed
    Shall think themselves accurs’d they were not here,
    And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
    That fought with us upon Saint Crispin’s day.

    • And after making that promise, Henry V saw victory and in the drunkenness of victory forgot all his promises. Those that shed blood were not his brothers. James Shapiro, 1599, A Year in the Life of William Shakespeare.
      Are we ready for the new Henry’s broken promises?

    • According to Juan Carlos Fernandez. (at 8:30pm approximately)
      11 out of 12 of the “nominal” are MUD’s, but the other one is unknown, 2 out of 3 of the “voto lista” goes to the MUD, and the other one to PSUV. And idk about the “indigena” one

  3. Ismael Garcia says that Aragua has another circuit in a close race, C1 is a clean win for the opp but C2 and C4 are unclear, Psuv says the won all but C1 in Aragua,

    • Jesse,

      this is my humble understanding of the reading of the Constitution.

      There are three types of majority in the Constitution: simple, 3/5 and 2/3. The simple allows to nominate the President and VP of the Assembly, as well as define what will be the committees to discuss laws and who will be in there. And, of course, it allows to pass the laws that are proposed.

      The 3/5 is able to block or provide “leyes habilitantes”, that are special powers given to the President. Those laws are usually created in the economic context.

      The 2/3 is the home run: one can remove the Supreme Court Judges (and, I think, other members of the public administration), create organic laws (that modify the way institutions functions), etc..and I do believe it allows the calling of a Constitutional Assembly.

      So, if the opposition gets the 2/3, it has enough power to be able to eventually dissolve the current government.

  4. how many seats were defined by less than 1%? i mean Canaimita madness, and all the tricks during the campaign and today, which is the effect?

    • I think that they actually don’t know, but this is an excellent strategy anyway, to keep repeating what the correct result should be way BEFORE the result is given, Lilian was already saying the result hours ago, the international media joined the game too, putting immense pressure on the criminals to not mess up. Imagine if Tiby says that PSUV won the majority now, the people will just invade the building and collect her as if she were a Fedex box. A fantastic job these guys at MUD are doing. Just fantastic.

  5. Ya, but the fat lady hasn’t sung. What our sources say and what the CNE has yet to announce may be WAY different. Don’t put it past the regime to reduce our victory to a simple majority. Blatant fraud? of course! But since when have these folks been shy playing that card…

  6. I do hope you’re right and we get the 2/3rds. I’d never be happier to be wrong. Also, we won two thirds but lost Miranda 4? Get lost!

  7. Excellent results, now let’s wait and hear out the regime’s next play. Congratulations to all those who actually love the country! Kudos

  8. Congrats to all, and I fortunately was wrong. Info has it that the Alto Mando Militar/DC/NM/G2/et.al. are currently meeting in the Cuartel De La Montana to decide Venezuela’s near-term fate….

  9. I don’t understand the optimism here. I know my sources, but don’t know yours… 🙂
    Are we really sure we have 2/3rds tonight? I hope so, but really do not know…Caracas Chronicles is always later to declare victory than everyone else, so I totally hope I am wrong on this one…

  10. hector…the only purge will be to get rid of the red vomit in power…sorry buddy, guess you have to get a real job now that your paycheck is going to bounce

  11. Thanks to all of you at Caracas Chronicles for your great work covering these elections! I’ve been glued to your site for hours, and obsessively returning to it every few hours for days. And it was worth it!

  12. I guess, useful idiot, will have to put a fucking bullet through your tiny bitty brain, but I suspect, you will be out of Venezuela in a New York minute, if you are not already out.

  13. if the opp doesn´t win Vargas doesn´t reach 112 seats,

    winning C4 in Miranda will give opp an overall win 7-5, winning one in Aragua will give a win 5-4 and winning C5 and C2 in Carabobo will give them most of the seats in Carabobo as well,

    the most interesting are Vargas, Miranda´s C4 and Aragua´s C3 because they are the remaining circuits aroung Caracas where the Govt has the majority,

  14. The social media is beginning to circulate out crazy shit about Chavista infighting and conspiring. In the absence of official information, the void gets filled by irresponsible rumors. If the Government doesn’t start talking soon, the Oppo is going to have to.

  15. So, someone explain to me what is taking the CNE so long to announce the results. I can’t help remembering the nigh Chavez lost the referendum – by a whopping amount – and it wasn’t announced by the CNE until 1:00 A.M. – and claimed that the loss was by only a small margin. What schemes are unfolding behind the CNE curtains with this continued delay.

  16. The Chavista high-life is ending. Look for a mass Chavista migration out of Venezuela as soon as they can. Thankfully, Cabello will no longer be head of the AN.

  17. Given the content of the foreign directed government media (Telesur, and the recent dross by Wiesbrot, Gollinger, Emmersberger and others) there’s always some lingering concerns about some shenanigans on the CNE’s part…like claiming fraud on the part of the MUD and providing evidence (which the government conveniently applied/created, since who else knows that system better…) and thus disavowing the whole shebang.

    Meh. Apurate Tibi.

  18. My nephew is messaging me about some rioting in Merida. Apparently the rumor is an issue with CNE machines and PSUV members, the mayor and some SAIME folk.

    • Apparently, the mayor of Tovar (a small town near El Vigia) was caught with the candidate of PSUV for that circuit with some machinery to make cedulas (ID cards), supposedly the idea was to forge the votes of dead people. There are riots and confrontation between some people and the GNB. I know this because my mother votes there, and she has been calling to update me

      • Ah. That makes sense. He went out there since apparently a 16 year old has nothing better to do on a Sunday night. However, what he was reporting back was what people were telling him while cars burned.

  19. 17 seats to be designated:

    3 indigenous: 2 opp and 1 psuv
    2nd list in Táchira: opp

    the remaining are 5 in Aragua (C2, C3 and C4), 1 in Carabobo (C4), 4 in Guárico (C1, C2, C3), 1 in Apure, and 3 in Monagas (C1) if a heard correct,

    i would like to know if someone has data from this places,

  20. Gracias a Dios… al fin Tibi gets off her fat ass and made our night. To quote Jackie Gleason “How sweet it is”. Good night and God bless.

  21. Good calculation on their part to take 5 seats. I wonder though… I think they could get away with it. We have to remember, if that’s the case, that we were hard pressed to believe a 3/5ths anyway and that, if you want to walk away from a bully, it’s best to take his parting zancadilla and keep walking. He’ll be in detention for 3 more hours anyway!

  22. So is everyone calling it a night? I hope the opposition fights to keep their 113 for tomorrow. We will have a new country in 1 year if so…

  23. […] My performance on this question was closer to last year’s, both in result and in approach.  I was surprised that so many forecasters expected the PSUV to effectively steal the election, unease over the difference in opinion moderated my forecast.  I also wasn’t sure how much results would be affected by some tactics, such as confusing names on ballots.  Apparently not that much. […]

  24. Whos going to be the president of the new AN? I bet a change of government within the next year or so. 2016 is going to be the most interesting, amazing, historic year of Venezuelan history.

  25. Very happy. But, its 6AM and they still have not called the last 17 (or 14?) new elected members… are they really trying to negotiate (pay?) their way out of a supermajority?
    Capaz el CNE decide no anunciar el resto y dejar la cosa asi…

  26. does anyone know where to find the detailed circuit by circuit breakdown? And when would the 2nd wave of results be announced? Pilas con los 22 que faltan.

    • I don’t think we’ll see the “official” breakdown until the remaining 22 seats are announced.

      Perhaps someone with MUD connections will get that info out later today.

      And given how awesome CCS Chron is, you’ll probably see it here before too long…..

  27. Juan, Francisco, Emiliana and everyone else, I transmit to you, from Brazil, my congratulations for this wonderful victory. Caracas Chronicles has always been a resistance stronghold waiting for that glorious day.

  28. 13 hours since voting centers *supposedly* closed.

    Still no full results. Still 14 reps short from MUD’s and CC’s own 113 magic numbers.

    Do you still plan to celebrate or will care to stop and focus on this fact?

  29. You guys are my oracle.
    Your accuracy in so many predictions, right down to the damn toque de diana, is something to be incredibly proud of.
    CC’s reboot couldn’t have come at a better time.

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