79 COMMENTS

    • Knowing (no offence -sorry-) the way Venezuelans are….you are likely to see something funny at some point…….1-2 PSUV deputies, switching to the MUD. Bear in mind the underlying ideology behind most PSUV politicios is one: how do I remain ‘enchufado’….keep this comment. Heroes are few and far in between – remember how cowardly the dear leader was (during his first coup, when he received one and then finally in death). This ain’t no movement of ‘heroes’.

      • Its very venezuelan to feel attracted to whoever holds emblematic power , to spontaneously feel drawn to whoever appears arraigned in the mantle of thriumph , the tendency exists elsewhere also.

        When a coronel Moreau failed in an attempted coupt to oust Napoleon after the latters defeat in Russia , The judge judging his ‘treason’ angrily demanded that he name his accomplices to which Moreau replied ‘You and all of France if success had crowned my plans ‘ and of course he was right.!

        Sometime later when Napoleon was dethroned and sent to exile to Elba , he scaped and begun a campaign to regain his crown by advancing towards Paris . The Moniteur , a newspaper known for its Royalist simpathies , recorded each day of his progress towards Paris with headlines which begun The Monster has Scaped Elba and and then as progressively as Napoleon got nearer to Paris changed the references to Napoleon consecutively as , the Usurper , then as General Napoleon until the day before he entered Paris in thriumph its headline was ‘ His Imperial Majesty is expected tomorrow to enter the City to the welcome of his adoring subjects ‘

        As the oppo is seen to advance towards greater power we all will see the effect of this tendency and watch surprised as many former Chavista loyals become oppo stalawarts !!

  1. That seems a bit crazy…enough to have us accept the results, but in all reality, 1 defection results in the loss of our ability to do the most important things…do we really trust these guys that much, that we believe they won’t try to buy off one of our officialsto keep control over the government?

  2. El CNE publico 107 para la MUD + 3 diputados indigenas + 2 por adujudicar
    Ganamos los 3 diputados indigenas?
    Estamos seguros sobre los 2 por adjudicar? De que circuitos son?

    No se puede bajar la guardia. 112 es justo el numero magico

  3. De *inga!

    They take their seats Jan 5, 2016? First on the agenda is liberation of 70 political ‘detainees’? Next is improving the business climate?

  4. Great. Still, I wonder how long until chavismo buys or otherwise blackmails one…just one. Anyway, we should now work on thinking what to do when the exiting Assembly starts emasculating the institution before 5 January

  5. There are many discrepancies in the list published by the MUD (downloadable PDF) and the website in the CNE (as of today 8.dec 3:00am): Aragua Circuito 3 is not showing up at all; Guarico Lista 1 shows PSUV in the lead (pending); Merida Lista 2 is shown as ADJUDICADO to the PSUV candidate, and not to MUD Luis Loaiza (shown only as Suplente); Amazonas Circuito 1 is not showing up at all; Delta Lista 1 shows PSUV candidate in the lead (pending); and the Indigena Sur is showing the MUD candidate in the lead by 29K votes (which is not shown in the MUD tally). Can someone confirm the tally? CNE is showing 107/55/3 so we would need ALL three indigenas and the remaining two pending votes for the 112. Why is it that the MUD tally only confirms two indigenas? What’s up with Merida Lista 2?

    • You are correct after reviewing everything, the MUD tally:
      1. Includes only 2 indigenas
      2. Include 2 in the Merida’s list (CNE shows only one)
      3. Circuit 1 of Amazonas and circuit 3 of Aragua which the CNE hasn’t provided any data. These two lean to the opposition but are very close.

    • So…is this via Sydney or Vienna? Because Telesur.

      Their new motto: When a picture provides the clarification the article did not, you’ve been Telesured.

      Too bad; I prefer Qantas over Austrian any day of the week.

    • Do they speak Australian in Australia, or do they speak Austrian in Australia ? Or is it that they speak Australian in Austria?

      Did Chris Carlson get himself a gig at Telesurtv?

  6. It ain’t over until the fat lady sings, and in this case that fat lady is Tibi.

    Until the CNE releases it’s Final Bulletin, it’s whatever they (CNE) have reported.

    MUD has been saying 112 and 115 to put pressure on. In this case, whatever they say is just straw.

    As of this writing, the CNE has on their site

    MUD 107
    PUSV 55
    Indigena 3

    No mention of who the Indigena seats are for, assuming Quico is right that gives us 110 with two still in the air.

    I don’t think you should be reporting 112 as a final number unless you can point to the CNE data and/or the FINAL Bulletin.

    • You are so right RobertoN, besides I don’t believe the Chavistas will allow anything above 110 seats because that would really mean the end for them and that ain’t gonna happen. They won’t accept a 2/3 majority (111 seats)

    • The winners for indigenous representation for the Occident, Orient and South regions are Virgilio Ferrer, Gladys Guaipo and Romel Guzamana. All 3 MUD candidates, as 5 seconds on Google will tell you. Got a comment eaten because it has 3 Twitter links to each of the candidate’s Twitter accounts.

      2 seats not adjudicated yet, C3 of Aragua and Amazonas, C3 Aragua was close, but Puzkas from Prodavinci puts it at KARIN SALANOVA (MUD) 68.846/ROSA LEON (PSUV 68.532).

      So, 107+3 = 110, 110 + 2 = 112. That’s the last number according to Carlos Vecchio.

      • If only Vecchio were the head of the CNE…………..sigh.

        Again, nothing would please me more than hearing the CNE report it’s 112 (or more!) for the MUD.

        I’m sure that there are some pretty awesome knife skills in play at this time.

        These criminals are not going to give up that 112th seat that easy.

        Looking at Aragua C3, and a difference of 314 votes in that race tells you that each papeleta, each acta, each chorizo and even whether or not emapandas de cazon were available that day is being scrutinized to see how that result may change.

        We may have our own “hanging chad” story in that race.

        In Amazonas it doesn’t look as close as Aragua so you could probably go 111 safely at this time.

        Given that 167/0.667 = 111.389, that 112th spot is as crucial as they come.

        I’m sure the PSUV will want to round up and the MUD down in order to conform to 2/3rds.

        • Who the fuck needs a blog to tell you what CNE said after CNE already said it? That’s bullshit, and an abrogation of duty on our part. We’re here to bring you the dato before anybody else has it. THAT’S THE WHOLE POINT marico reacciona!

          • My point is this.

            I would have written the title to this post as
            “We are calling the final number as 112” NOT “Final tally for real”

            “Based on what we know, and on our sources inside the MUD we feel confident that the final number is 112……..etc…etc.”

            Or

            “For reasons that are not entirely clear, the CNE is dragging its feet in announcing the final official tally, etc, etc.”

            But hey, what do I know, I’m just a cook right?

            Final tally for real comes from the CNE. Not you, not any other blog or news site.

            On January 5th, it will be the list of Deputies and their Subs provided by the CNE and not the MUD that gets seated.

            Whether we agree with it or not THAT is the reality.

            I really admire you guys. I am grateful for your coverage of not only this election, but of the work you have done since you started this blog. But I will also point out what I think, even when I don’t agree with your positions.

            Your forecasting tool creamed everyone else. To miss the call by one out of 167 is admirable. Kudos!

            And as for your language, Quico, it leaves a lot to be desired.

          • Over the top, Quico. Truly beneath your normally very high standards. And, quite frankly, I – like RobertoN – won’t quit worrying until the tally is officially stamped in some way by the CNE. Without that – no matter how good your sources – it’s not official. And as long as it’s not official, it’s open to sabotage by Chavista back-room machinations.

        • RobertoN; the CNE updated the results last night (107 MUD, 55 PSUV, 3 Indigena), that’s why I hadn’t seen it either. What I don’t understand is, if the indigena seats support (or belong to) the MUD why they’re shown separately.

  7. In 2001-2002 and 2007, diputados flocked from Chavismo towards the Opposition, not the other way around. I’m not saying we are foolproof, but those changes came around times of Chavista difficulties. The moves across the aisle in the 2010 legislature happened in the midst of a Chavista upswing.

  8. If for any reason the magic 112 is not reached the MUD can pick from 55 PSUV the 3 less despicable and open the door for them. Las talanqueras se pueden saltar de un lado para otro…

    • commie party’s founder in Venezuela said in an interview to Carla Angola that elections were “unnecessary” once the left has achieved the power.

      • How can socialism be democratic? Under socialism political bosses decide what products to build and what price it should be, everything is a government monopoly, and they can charge whatever they want, and use the money for political purposes. There is absolutely no accountability because the masses have to buy those products, and there is only one source for the product, no matter how bad and expensive they are. The bosses can never fail. When the bosses want more money to pay their friends and consolidate their power, they charge higher prices and the public will then have to subsidize the bosses against the interest of the public.

        Eventually the bosses become so powerful that they rig elections and finally terminate democracy in the name of expediency and emergency, usually after they find or create an enemy. With unlimited unaccountable power and unlimited budgets, the bosses will quickly subvert democracy and keep themselves in power.

  9. See the CNE link above and below. While the data is here, it will take a lot of work to get it into a spreadsheet. ESDATA has previously put electoral data into a spreadsheet,but I have no idea how long it will take. Your choice.
    http://esdata.info/

    • Thank you so much! I was looking for this link. I just couldn’t remember it.

      I have a question. Had the CNE not actually gone on their typical gerrymandering expedition and instead set up an election with proportional distribution as I believe the constitution demands. Then would the opposition have only narrowly gotten 3/5 majority? Tachira was the only state where the Opposition came close to winning 2/3 of the actual vote.

      Talk about shooting yourself in the foot!

  10. What is the number required for a 2/3 majority and where is it stated (i.e. in an official document or something)? Depending on how you round the numbers, it could be 110-112 and I have read different people saying 110, 111 and 112.

    I am happy that we got 112 so that we are safe no matter what, but I would still like to know the official number.

    • I think you have to be equal or more than twice the other side. Therefore 111 would not work because 167 – 111 = 56 * 2 = 112 > 111.

      But 112 works. 167 – 112 = 55 * 2 = 110 < 112

      If only 111 or 110 out of 112 show up, you still win. 55 * 2 = 110 <= 110 who show up.

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