What will President Trump mean for Venezuela?


So it’s supposed to be my job to help you figure out what the Trump presidency [[[deep shudder]]] will mean for Venezuela. Except I can’t do my job, because trying to predict how Donald Trump will behave in any give context is a lost cause.

On the one hand, it’s easy to see that putting a virtual Putin ally in the White House ought to take some of the heat off of the Maduro administration. Trump is openly skeptical of “democracy promotion” as a foreign policy tool. “A disaster!”

The kind of brute-force realism Trump has stood for might just push his administration to openly prioritize stability in Venezuela as what’s in the U.S. interest. “Stability” is code for letting sleeping dogs lie.

Then again, can you imagine Trump under a sustained SiBCI provocation campaign? Trump Derroga El Decreto Ya!? How easy is it to imagine him watching some crude Venezuelan propaganda video designed to rile him up and just flip out, deciding these swarthy types need to be taught a lesson? To me, that’s a terrifyingly real prospect…and U.S. intervention on those terms could do immense damage.

The bottom line: that Donald J. Trump is a great believer in the “Element of Surprise” — to the point of elevating volatility to a kind of National Security doctrine. Trying to predict what he’ll do in Venezuela — or anywhere else — would be a blunder.

We don’t know and we won’t know.

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    • A cold shoulder could be pretty interesting within mud ranks…

      Considering the vitriol that Dr. Toro and other CC writers have heaped upon Trump and his supporters, a cold shoulder might be considered well deserved.

      The Donald might say: “So oppo writers consider me to be like Maduro? Or if not like Maduro, like Chavez? Why then, would oppo writers expect me to help the oppo?”
      Thumb, meet nose. It works both ways. “Slackjawed right wing simplemindedness,” indeed- to quote Dr. Toro.

      I’m not saying that a cold shoulder would be the best policy decision for the US, but that those who write such screeds have not exactly made the case against a cold shoulder.

      CC writers, see what you done done. 🙂

      • “Considering the vitriol that Dr. Toro and other CC writers have heaped upon Trump and his supporters, a cold shoulder might be considered well deserved.”

        To add insult to injury, the MUD spokesman has just said that Trump is like Chávez, that the US could be heading toward the cliff and the US institutions will be put to test (with him in power)”.

        Today of all days. The day-after, when the protocol is for the political leaders around the world to send polite congratulation letters and make phone calls to the newly-elected leader.

        Incredible. To be ignored by Trump seems to be what MUD wants. I wonder what kind of bizarre strategy is this…


        • Incredible. To be ignored by Trump seems to be what MUD wants. I wonder what kind of bizarre strategy is this…

          Can we pretty please remove that idiot as spokesperson of the MUD, Chuo is a utter moron.

          • The MUD also wanted Uribe, aka the worst nightmare of the farcs, the ones that keep along the castros and the boliburgueoise syphoning Venezuela’s vaults, “out of our business”

            That was said by Capriles himself, the guy that suddenly realized that he was a human being and not a stepping tile a couple of months ago.

      • “Considering the vitriol that Dr. Toro and other CC writers have heaped upon Trump and his supporters, a cold shoulder might be considered well deserved.”

        At the risk of sounding “vitriolic”, today does not feel to me like the usual victim day for Trump.

        • OK, the bias and stupidity here is now beyond belief. Your opposition SPOKESPERSON insulted Trump today, along with tens of millions of Americans, for no reason. Even the Mexicans, who have actual reasons to fear a Trump presidency, were cordial. What a breathtaking display of incompetence.

          And you are still babbling that Trump “can’t think like a statesman”? Is this some kind of joke? Are we supposed to be overawed by Venezuelan statecraft and diplomacy? Somehow I think Trump will be able to find a SPOKESPERSON who doesn’t commit totally unnecessary own goals during times of severe crisis.

          Yeah, you guys are screwed.

        • And you just made Quico’s point. The guy can’t think like a statesman. He reacts to provcations, and make everything personal. He is a child.

          I suggest you read more closely what I had written: “I’m not saying that a cold shoulder would be the best policy decision for the US, but that those who write such screeds have not exactly made the case against a cold shoulder.”

          Contrary to what you claim, it’s not just children who are disinclined to help those who insult them. Do you really believe that MUD spokesman Jesus Torrealba’s recent screed against Trump- previously discussed in this thread w link- was a wise move, that the most politic thing the oppo can do to get Trump on its side is to insult Trump?

          Very simple human nature: it is not realistic to expect help from those whom you insult. Apparently CC and MUD spokesman Jesus Torrealba have forgotten that. Even Maduro realizes that a diplomatic approach is the best approach right now. Apparently many in the oppo lack even that basic understanding.

  1. Obama and others were pushers of the “stability” doctrine and look where it got us.
    If he actually does something this whole shitfest might be worth it.

    • Here hoping that Masburro starts insulting The Donald on a daily basis.

      Commenter Marc @ 5:21 p.m. has provided us a link to a Reuters article that discusses that very issue. You might find yourself surprised at who has been insulting The Donald. Excuse me: President-elect Trump.

      The government of President Nicolas Maduro, who was elected in 2013 to replace Chavez, congratulated the Republican U.S. candidate on his victory in a statement on Wednesday, while insisting the two nations needed to maintain respectful bilateral relations.

      Maduro made a conciliatory, diplomatic statement. By comparison, consider what MUD spokesman Jesus Torrealba said about Trump’s election:

      Venezuela’s main opposition spokesman on Wednesday wished the United States “all the luck in the world” after Donald Trump won the presidency, and suggested America could find itself facing problems that currently beset the South American nation.

      Trump’s campaign style of picking fights and lobbing insults has drawn comparisons to late socialist leader Hugo Chavez, who won repeated elections but faced criticism for stifling dissent and creating a state-led economy now mired in crisis.

      “We come from this disaster – the fantasy of politics driven by a single leader, these hegemonic and totalitarian projects,” Jesus Torrealba, spokesman for the opposition’s Democratic Unity coalition, said in a statement.

      “(Now) others appear to be heading toward that cliff,” he said, adding that U.S. institutions “will be put to the test.”

      Sounds to me as if Jesus Torrealba gets his talking points from Caracas Chronicles, which has featured cutting-edge articles about whether Trump was like Maduro or whether Trump was like Chavez.

      Courtesy of Marc @ 5:21 p.m.: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-venezuela-idUSKBN134392

  2. Insta Google:


    I actually had to go to page 2, to get past the Miss Universe thing and other comments on irrelevant issues.

    What the U.S. can actually DO may be limited (by any number of considerations and influences, including Venezuelans-in-the-street or at-work reactions, screaming about foreign intervention and “Yanqui Imperialism” – one article I skipped on Google was some nonsense about how Trump was planning to purchase Venezuela in spite of Venezuelans – maybe from El Chiguire, I don’t know).

    But I think Trump’s thoughts on the “relative redeeming merits” of the regime are fairly clear. And he does, incidentally, make the link to Cuba, that link which I think most Venezuelans now recognize.

    My guess is that U.S. policy initiatives towards Venezuela will be generated as they likely are now, by the Department of State, and will likely continue as they are, with perhaps a bit more autonomy to those in the Dept. to follow through on their intelligence and analysis. Perhaps a bit more clarity from Trump, and fewer “political compromises”.

    Really, the way things are looking, you might expect more from the IMF, from the OAS, from Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Paraguay certainly – and the actions by those countries would be ones to speculate about. As far as oil, I think it might be fair to say that it is “bigger than the U.S. Presidency” and the Saudis have more to say about that, as they are able to influence global markets.

    Some of you guys here might have some valuable insights about what Latin American governments think about Venezuela, and what they, and the businesses operating in them, intend or plan to do or have already done.

  3. The Trump presidency will mean little difference for Venezuela. As Gordon states, WAY under the radar. The only interest the US has is about prosecuting those stupid enough to run drugs or transit illegally obtained money through the US in some fashion.

  4. newbie here— been reading CC and DE for 8-10 months (sorry to hear of MO’s injury), I have a few questions that I hope some of the long time members will give your option on. Thanks in advance. Considering the relatively recent events in Central America (Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras) and South America: (Brazil locally) where the UN and the US have come together to pressure elected administrations to prosecute past corruption, why would one believe that those in power currently in Venezuela would willingly leave control? It does not seem that “one” would get away with embezzling millions (billions) and just taking refuge in another country, like times past, is likely.

    Secondly, having looked at a population density map of Venezuela, it appears that if things get “significantly” worse the easiest/quickest escape would be the Colombian border. With respect to the, as of now failed peace negotiations, how would the “demilitarization” zones effect any possible mass emigration. Assuming the FARC ceases to exist, (in its current form) it appears that many other armed actors would look upon the new emigrants as a new source of revenue.

    thanks for your response/input,

    • It had been stated for many years, and it is now abundantly clear, that those in power will not relinquish power willingly. It was possible to imagine a scenario where things would get so bad that the military would sit down with them and tell them they have to go, as apparently happened in 2002. Unfortunately, now many of the military leaders are involved in drug trafficking to US/Europe or gasoline smuggling to Colombia and have just as much to lose as do the political leaders. It is difficult to imagine Vennies as refugees in Colombia, as everybody still seems to think they are rich people whose money is being stolen by politicians. It is easier to imagine most will just starve in place.

      • vennie—thanks for the response. that (your comment on emigrants to Colombia) seems to be a one of the major problems with how the Venezuelan electorate sees their relationship with the government (historically not just under HC/NM). It seems to be a quid pro quo between entitlements and the permission go govern has been the status quo for so long that there is not any other possibility looking forward.


  5. With Trump, all the his shit spreading henceforth and this dramatic power transition, we are basically on our own.

    However, Marco Rubio keeps the Senate seat and he has proven a very strong ally to the Venezuelan opposition.
    With the Republican dominated Congress a more aggressive anti-chavista anti-castrist policy might come.
    But agree with Quico here, all bets are off as for DT foreign policy goes.

    The critical timing is now though so there is not waiting for the DT administration to come and do something.

    Obama Presidency ends January 20th 2017

      • Oh, and its the Castro’s and them alone who have embezzled hundreds of billions of dollars using the currency exchange systed thereby CAUSING the hunger of millions of Venezuela’s people?

        Why wouldn’t you shout this from the rooftops day and night?

        • Ya me preguntaba yo cuál era el peo tuyo conmigo, supongo que crees que soy “fácil de insultar” porque me puse un apodo y tengo la cara de un personaje de ficción como retrato.

          Sin embargo, alguna cosa he dicho que te ha hecho picarte de tal forma, que hasta me dedicaste no uno, si no dos mensajes en tu paginita del capitalista cara de libro, el primer mensaje demuestra tu racismo e ignorancia “supina” como dicen por ahí sobre la situación de Venezuela, y el segundo mensaje me hace ver que toqué un nervio, porque ahí recurres a llamarme “perro”, demostrando que te has quedado sin ningún argumento, y que te he hecho perder la compostura, e irónicamente se te termina saliendo el racismo que pretendes achacarme a mí, a Mr. Toro, y al resto de los que comentan en la página.


          Supongo que debería sentirme halagado de ser el objetivo de tu berrinche, pero luego de revisar por unos minutos lo que pones en la página, es fácil saber que no tienes ni la más mínima idea de como se está viviendo en Venezuela desde que Maduro tomó el poder, de cómo se vivió con su jefecito el podrido Chávez, o de ni siquiera como era que se vivía durante los gobiernos anteriores a ese.

          A mí me toca lidiar con gente hipócrita como tú a diario, así que pierdes tu tiempo si crees que me vas a hacer perder la paciencia, y en realidad haces el ridículo con algo como eso, Eugenio, que eres, según tu página de cara de libro, un estadounidense que está tratando de “perro” a un hispanoamericano, vaya, pareces salido de la propaganda racista más recalcitrante posible, sólo faltaría, no sé, no tengo un parámetro para medir eso de la “raza” porque bueno, para mí me es indiferente en ralidad, yo superé esa deficiencia mental hace muchos años.

          PD: La respuesta te la estoy echando en español, porque me da curiosidad saber si eres tan racista, que no sabes ni una palabra de español, cuando yo escribo y leo inglés mucho mejor de lo que tú lo llegas a hacer (Y eso que yo aprendí jugando Nintendo con un diccionario al lado)

          • Its Mr. Toro who called you an assh—-,. As for racism, my Spanish is not that strong but its you, not me, who spoke of “chimpaflores.” You can call me just about anything you wish, some of it would be true, but “racist!?” I don’t accept that.

          • Stop digging, dude, you’re just burying yourself deeper.

            Also, yeah, you called me “racist dog”, and the screenshot is there to prove it, adn you can’t take it down as much as you whine.

            Mr. Toro called me an asshole? When? Look, you’re hysterical by now, flinging baseless acussations like that, which is not liked here, the only time I got to argue with Mr. Toro in a serious way was some months ago when I mentioned that the criminals that are repeated offenders such as serial killers, rapists or kidnappers, should be gunned or lynched, because a being like those, who rapes or murders without any remorse and even openly relish on it while mocking the rest of people don’t deserve any rights.

            And even then, Toro answered stating that the selective denial of basic rights never works completely, and the proof of that is with the OLP; do you know what is the OLP, man? There’s some homework for ya.

            But he never went as far as calling me asshole, and you can’t prove it otherwise.

            Yes, you’re racist, and you demonstrated it by calling me dog.

            Your ignorance of Venezuela’s situation would be hilarious if it wasn’t so offensive, as well as your zealous defense of the pot of ashes that’s castro now (Hey, curious, they burned the corpse like in the next 24 hours he kicked the bucket) without forgetting your fixation with blaming the middle class for the situation in Venezuela, that last one being the hallmark of the snobbish lower-higher class left “thinker”.

            PS: About the comments, sometimes they don’t get posted due to an error in the connection, it’s not that anybody is censoring anything here, not even the most disgusting chavistas who come here to openly mock either the suffering of a political prisoner or even the murder of a child at the hands of some chavista lunatic soldier using a shotgun.

    • My hope is that PEOTUS Donald Trump leaves VZ completely alone.. do nothing.

      Its obvious that the MUD/AN need a new demon and Trump provides that outlet. Hating America is what politicians in VZ do best. Maduro and the Chavistas only want the money and glory that hollywood actors can afford.

      Actual assistance of any form from the US gubmint would taint the coffers of the MUD/AN.

      You get the gubmint you so richly deserve.

      • “…leaves VZ completely alone.. do nothing.”

        Exactly what’s been done during the last 16 years.

        Dementia is doing the same thing over and over again thinking it will yield different results.

        Cuba was left alone, and 55 years later the pus-filled mummies are still in control there.

        “You get the gubmint you so richly deserve.”

        The recurrence of this insult starts making one to believe there are lots of “undercover” chavistas getting paid extra just to annoy here.

        • U-

          When VZ and others in LA decide what type of gubmint they want, Americanos can (and will) begin meaningful dialog.

          We Americanos chose to let foreign gubmints run their own countries this last election. I really doubt you or anyone from VZ is asking the USA for help in “nation building”. Right?

          As far as my continued use of the line “You get the gubmint you so richly deserve.”, explain to everyone how a democracy works otherwise? You elect a leader(s) some other country doesn’t like and then ask for outside help? At what point does this end? When you have driven your opposition into the ground and made them criminals?

          Regrettably, that has been tried (and FAILED) already. BTW: Dementia is not defined as you have stated. Posting lies/incorrect definitions is a hallmark of the leftists that have ruled VZ. I choose not to parrot this mistake.

          The American electorate do not want our gubmint to get involved in VZ internal politics. Maduro/Chavez held up Obama as a poster child of international influence. Although they were kindred spirits of the LEFT.

          Now that Trump has been elected, he should follow in the foolish footsteps of others? I hope not.

          I struggle to understand what things could be done now that have not already been tried by Obama and Bush (4#) that would succeed where others have failed. Cuba is a continued failed country because of how it is managed/run by communists and leftists. Pouring money into that island nation serves no purpose but to prop up the regime.

          Some times, countries just have to fail… or use their own boxes (soap/ballot/ammo) to change their direction.

          Speaking for myself, VZ has to do this on their own. I want no part of this continued implosion and I am proud of my Trump/Pence vote.

          Selfishly, I would prefer that Americanos choose to deal with domestic issues inside their homeland before spending precious resources on foreign distractions that only serve to prop up those regimes.

          But if it makes you feel any better, the USA will continue to buy VZ oil and send some token staples at some point to prove “Love Trumps Hate”. And then we can get blamed for aiding/abetting another group of socialists.

          • Leave Venezuela alone but fuck any attempt to disrupt the status quo of a regime who’s openly using all of that country’s resources to actively smuggle tons of drugs in our country and then come to our country to openly conspire against our government and launder their corruption and drug money, because that’s not a threat at all, no sire.

            Your logic is hilarious, dude.

  6. I don’ t expect much of him, but I do think that his victory will make life a little harder for the MUD, the PSUV and the Vatican. I figure that he will at least try to keep his support in Florida, and that means being a little tougher with Raul Castro and Maduro, even though I don’ t know how far he will go. His victory puts the dialogue in check (even tough it was not going anywhere anyway), and, considering the oppo leaders are mostly cowards that will never act, that might actually benefit Maduro, who can, as always, seize the moment. The oppo leaders are never going to put a fight, no matter what Trump or anyone does. They will do anything except lead a NVR. Maybe I am wrong, maybe Obama will try to press the dialogue more, to see if he can get results before january. But who knows? It is true that Venezuela is not a priority for anyone.

  7. Yeah, a lot of things amount to “dunno”.

    Then again, apparently a lot of the MUD apparently had a fire lit up their asses today (what a coincidence!), so maybe they already got the info that the Cuba market opening and the “stability” are not part of the agenda anymore.

  8. Quico, as a close observer of Venezuela, and as a Venezuelan, you are in fact uniquely qualified to speak to what unfolds in the USA over the next four year term. I mean that sincerely. So don’t hold back.

    My two bits: people want simple solutions, and the new President seems genuinely inclined to deliver on that. For example, people want to “bomb the hell out of ISIS”, whatever that slogan may mean. That gives us a clue I think, to the approach going forward.

    The simple approach to US foreign policy in Latin America historically has been backing the guys with the guns. It is cheaper and has more domestic political payoff than committing funds and man hours to economic and democratic renewal. A massive loan to help ameliorate an economic transition? Not likely.

    In a word, for those of us who remember the 1980s: Rambo.

  9. Hey, Rambo defeated the Evil Empire. You should be so lucky.

    Looking on the bright side, Obama set the bar really low. In addition, you have already been totally screwed by Cuba, China, Russia, Iran, Ecuador, Bolivia, Argentina, Brazil, North Korea, the entire Caribbean, the Pope… That was just off the top of my head so I probably missed a bunch.

    I really don’t get the fear. Is Trump going to be the target of more vitriol than the Chinese Communist dictatorship that actively aided and abetted your loss of wealth, dignity and freedom? Talk about an immature and wrong headed approach to diplomacy…

    Try not to forget the role that anti-Americanism played in the rise and sustenance of Chavismo. Hugo Chavez’s “smell of sulphur” clown act at the UN alone resulted in a tremendous reservoir of goodwill towards your oppressors from leftists around the world.

    Also, I’ve been told that if the “market” is up, this is prima facie evidence that the American people made a wise choice.

    • “Try not to forget the role that anti-Americanism played in the rise and sustenance of Chavismo.”

      Thanks for mentioning that. That would of course be the liberal, elitist argument against Rambo.

      By the way, when I said Rambo, I actually meant Oliver North. Remember the summer of Oliver North?

      My bet Quico, is that whatever happens regarding US policy in Venezuela, Oliver North will be involved. That’s right- the guy that helped make Daniel Ortega a hero and President for Life and helped launch the film career of Oliver Stone!

      Anyway, that’s my specific prognostication. North, Ortega, Trump, Gingrich and Godgiven Hair (playing the part of Manuel Noriega, who is busy right now), with Oliver Stone doing screenplay, and our kids will be back doing the nuclear war drills under the desks…all we’ll be missing is Bowie’s Serious Moonlight tour.

  10. This all must break down to what Trump is actually going to do, if he is going to do anything. Obama was largely a case of not-doing, passively allowing the complete derailing of democratic process in Venezuela, but keeping “imperialist” moves out of play. Fact is, American companies lost and are being done out of great business so long as the countries economy is in the shitter, and that might provide Trump some incentive to force issues of change – maybe. Impossible to say, really, but with his knack for blurting with politically insensitive tropes, I CAN see him making plain and volatile statements about the ruin of the country at the hands of idiots and thieves, and saying plainly how bad the situation actually is. Plain talk might be heard. Hope Trump says as much.

  11. Gordon Rivas Jr. is right. Donald Trump has lots on his plate and Venezuela doesn’t rise above the threshold of importance right now. Venezuela needs to solve its own problems and stop looking for solutions from outside. I am pretty sure everyone in Venezuela and their cat knows what it is going to take. Afterward, Venezuela will be able to count on the rest of the world, including the U.S., for assistance.

    • The United States isn’t going to feed thirty million Venezuelans for one day. As Trump might say “fuhgeddaboudit”. Polls say that Venezuela’s people want the dialogue to address and solve the food crisis. As an outsider with family in Venezuela I can’t believe anyone would find any other agenda trumps food on the table.

      Nicmer Evans and others raise the issue that hundreds of billions of dollars have been embezzled from the Venezuelan people. Why they are like prophets in the desert tearing their hair out is beyond me. Can someone please let me know what the reason is that there isn’t a task force dedicated to tracking and recuperating this stolen wealth?

      • Markets dont care where money comes from, that should be controlled by whatever country said money comes from. And Venezuela doesn’t do it’s part.

        • I guess that’s why Evans says the government / opposition split is fake. This would be a strong common bond, now wouldn’t it? Given that can anyone tell me why people who CONSEQUENTLY DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH TO EAT should or would have a preference between the two?

      • You write as if Nicmer Evans and his Red Tide just discovered, all of a sudden, that someone had their hand in the cookie jar.

        Before Nicmer and his cronies split with Maduro, not a peep from them about the sacking of Venzuela’s coffers. A conspiracy of silence and justification of any sin because to speak up was to guarantee you’d be thrown out into the cold.

        Task force? Who? The very government that not only created, starting with Chavez, the looting and the continual theft? Really? You expect them to go after the ones gorging themselves while the rest starve and suffer? You are either quite naive about what its like in Venezuela, or you are incredibly cynical

        There are people, not one from the government, who are indeed tracking and locating assets taken by chavistas and maduristas. The work is not like in the movies where it happens in about two minutes thirty seconds. It takes time, money and resources that are hard to come by at a personal level, but it is being done. How do you think the money in Andorra, a $4 BILLION petty cash account, was found?

        The worst is that it is chump change compared to what is missing.

        • I don’t think Evans should be the issue. We’re talking about hundreds of billions of dollars stolen exacrrbating serious problems for millions of Venezuela’s people.

          Children who grow up malnourished may become adults who cannot compete and fend for themselves.

  12. Mr. Toro. Perhaps you should clean up your own house before you worry about our house? (I’ll text you when nobody can find aspirin in the United States)

    • My give a fecal factor for Venezuela was already at “1” after the disaster on display by the MUD/AN meeting where they backed away from holding Maduro accountable.

      Now that they insist on insulting PEOTUS Donald Trump, my GAFF is “0”.

      Let everyone in Venezuela enjoy the fruits of their labor under Maduro/Chavez and the MUD. There is really not much difference these days… just degrees of hard-left socialism.

      I don’t wish anyone in VZ any ill will, your people have suffered greatly. But, you got the gubmint you so richly deserve. I think we will keep our representative republic here in my country. It may not be perfect, but, it tends to work out for the best (one way or another).

  13. Mr. Toro, I suggest you to turn it down two the “chavista conspiranoia”, Trump isn’t going to send the marines nor a drone to invade Venezuela.

    Still, I think it would be proper for the americans to at least send a drone here, but not to launch a rocket, but to fire a toy arrow with a letter that says “STOP SMUGGLING YOUR FARC DRUGS INTO OUR COUNTRY OR ELSE…”

    Or even better, send one to diosdado that tells him “BEHIND YOU, IT’S THE DEA.”

  14. Just a quick post from our friends at dolartoday.com


    [English translation
    Trump defined the country as “a beautiful, vibrant and wonderful place” but “has been terribly hurt by the socialists of Venezuela”. But he promised a hard hand against the governments of Cuba and Venezuela. He explained that there are many Venezuelan sections of Doral – Florida, while argued that the city of Miami is built “with the hard work of the people of Venezuela”.

    He said that as president of the United States, should remain in solidarity with the oppressed people.

    “They yearn to be free, they long to be helped,” said Trump, claiming that Venezuela is in trouble and that “the system is bad, but its people are great.”

  15. Trump is a wild card, but he’s far from the first such US President. Being unpredictable to the point of insanity is how Kennedy got the Soviets to back off from Cuban missile crisis.

    I think much of his bravado is bluster though.

  16. “Except I can’t do my job, because trying to predict how Donald Trump will behave in any give context is a lost cause”

    Sigh…If you really consider that your job is to “predict” events,that is very sad. Probably why you keep being wrong time after time after time….It is much more important to focus on the process and the analysis involved in the process than in the result. But in the same fashion as Poor & Standards and Wall St. anal-ists, you keep getting it wrong time after time (the best and most recent one is from DB: “PDVSA will default not on 2016, not on 2017 but in in 2018, definitely in 2018 with a 90% probability” (!).

    For a more insightful reading:


    As my dear Taleb says, the IYI wouldn’t be able to find a coconut in Coconut Island. But let’s keep following Chuo and Hausmann, they will guide us through the path to exit Chavismo.

    Moreover, it is embarrassing how people still keep looking up to the U.S. for pointers. We need to find the way out ourselves, stop thinking someone will come to help us, they won’t. When are we going to start judging our politicians based on RESULTS?

    Mr. Toro, please stop forecasting and stick to analysis. Maybe all the below will persuade you stop forecasting? I can only hope:





  17. Re Venezuela Trump will do what makes him popular and flatters his ego , if Venezuela falls into the radar of US public opinion he will be very proactive and aggresive if that wins him applause ……..Florida cuban republican conbgressmen are still in Congress , they are a constituency he might want to cultivate, Venezuela’s tragedy has become a spectacle to the world , Trump the histrionist has already mentioned Venezuelas situation several times because he knows it puts him in the limelight !! Dont think he has a personal concern about Venezuela but he certainly he is sensitive to what might helphis popularity ………He is not a statesman he is a showman ……..Venezuela the spectacle has gained quite an audience and the blood hasnt even started to flow yet ……. lets see what happens when it does….!!

  18. The short answer to the question what Trump means for Venezuela is nothing. I understand that the US presidential selection process is a form of sport in many countries although typically a sport for left leaning types who deride the American electorate whenever their choice is not selected. But we have managed through 200 years plus transfering power without military intervention or widespread civillian unrest even during a lengthy civil war wherein both sides elected their leadership democratically, and whenever someone fails the electorate he is turned out of office. So what does the Trump selection mean for Venezuela. He is a non interventionist and will follow the Obama policy of disengagement. Maybe he is a good diversion in all of your troubles but that is all he will amount to as you resove your terrible problems.

  19. All this bedwetting about Donald Trump by what appears to be a collection of international leftists (soft socialists and fascists) on this website is rather sickening. Trump was elected as an anti-left icon who finally started talking about “draining the administrative state’s swamp”. He was not elected to “help” any other country which has found itself in trouble, and will likely be very cautious in this regard, since anything he does with respect to Vza (including jawboning) will immediately bring howls of panic from virtually everyone (particularly on this blog). I have contributed money to CC several times in the past, but I think that has just come to a screeching halt. You all think you have Trump completely figured out. I don’t think you have anything figured out.

    • It’s like people have been overtaken by some sort of knee-jerk reflex that makes them imagine that Trump will carpet bomb Venezuela when the first chavista barks an insult.

      In fact, the first ones to insult him, were the folks of the MUD, talking about “missing the target” here…

      • It has been amazing the last two days to watch CC and the opposition speak ill of Trump. It has furthered my opinion that Chavistas will continue to rule for a long time as the oppo can’t seem to put together a coherent policy.

        • The MUD/AN are flailing at any/all targets but the one they should. When I see someone from the MUD/AN who has a coherent policy that us Americanos can get behind, I’ll support it.

          The faults within their policies and infighting are things that Trump cannot (AND WILL NOT) step into. They need to figure out what their next steps are. They argued immediately after the election about how Trump is like Chavez.

          Fine. I disagree. But don’t let facts get in the way of dogma.

    • The victory of Donald Trump appears to have heralded the age of the sore winner. Dude. Buck up. You won. Bigly. Not caring about the other people across the pond, and keeping them out, is ascendant.

      • And how is stepping in and picking a fight with either side going to change things for the better?

        Maduro and the Chavistas want a new “boogie man” for a distraction.
        MUD/AN have already told Trump and Americanos to f-off.

        The upside for the USA??? Kinda hard to see where that path leads.

        • “Maduro and the Chavistas want a new “boogie man” for a distraction.”

          They never needed an ACTUAL boogie man to distract, they’ll just keep screeching the latest lie the G2 feeds them while the people here die by dozens everyday, and that’s the point you missed.

          And having the MUD inmediately crush and dismiss ANY attempt of fighting the regime that doesn’t come from their cryptic ominous council’s guidelines is the thing that infuriates so much people now.

          • I guess I am missing alot more by not reading between the lines.

            Trump (and the USA) are damned (read: BLAMED) if we do not step in to assist the MUD/AN. But the MUD/AN are already lobbing accusations at Trump for being a Maduro/Chavista puppet. And Madura insists on Trump staying out and not helping MUD/AN.

            How is there a foreign policy goal for Trump in VZ? Do explain… Secretly ship arms/funds to the MUD/AN? Not. Going. To. Happen.

            Send food/supplies to people starving? Not against it, but, it will have to go into the hands of Maduro first. US goods are not well received by the leftists. Just money for oil.

            Again, where is the path forward for US policy?

          • You missed my point.

            I’m saying that regardless of whatever Trump, the MUD or ANYONE decides to do, be it protest, be it talk, be it even EXIST, the chavistas will ALWAYS blame everybody for all their fuckups and will act accordingly, seeking “revenge and retribution”, even with a cheap tailored excuse like that fucking ridiculous “economic war”.
            They’re blaming Obama, who was along Bush the BEST thing that ever happened to chavismo because his policy about South America was basically “look to the other side and not give a flying f**k”, they’re blaming ANYONE who produces ANYTHING because they can’t afford to take responsibility for the colossal destruction of the economy, the imbecile Aristóbulo blames the “privates” for the scatrcity when it’s fucking clearly their own and only their fault, because something called “SADA guide”, which puts a tracking number on EVERY pack of regulated products that ever leaves a factory here, yet morons like him brazenly lie about it.

            And I said that the MUD itself, who are supossed to be doing ANYTHING and EVERYTHING to get Venezuela rid of the chavista bosses, is instead BLOCKING every single attempt to disrupt the status quo, not only quenching any protests by slandering people as “lunatic mercenary radicals”, but as well by going abroad and screeching outside the country that “this is a democracy, stay out of here!”, “we don’t need any help to solve this!” and “our problems are solved only by venezuelans!”. Or do I have to remind you the embarrasing moments with Aveledo asking for the sanctions against the drug dealers and human rights violators to be repealed, or Ramón José Medina telling that every single hostage the regime’s taken is “jailed because they got themselves in that mess alone”, or even Capriles the most recent “comeflor-turned-radical” who told Uribe to “stay out of here” when he was willing to provide the exact location of the FARC bases in Venezuela? Do you know how damaging would have been for chavismo to have rock solid evidence that they are starving the people because they took the money to buy fucking DRUGS?

            No, dude, THIS problem CANNOT be solved by venezuelans alone, not as long as they remain disorganized, disbanded and disarmed.

  20. The USA and Europe simply don’t care any more about little countries in trouble like Venezuela: There are dozens and dozens of them worldwide. Heck, the USA barely cares about Mexico, and that’s only because they share a huge border, crime, drug traffic and immigration.

    Now that oil is cheap, and everyone has it, plus other energy sources who cares? Did the USA care about Colombia or Nicaragua or even Serbia, or even Africa nations starving and in constant war? Heck, Europe doesn’t care either about strange exotic places in turmoil like Vzla. They can hardly locate us on a world map. They have their own problems. Ask the mighty Germans about “Venezuela”, see if they know it’s South or Central America..

    Heck even the UN, and other “world help organizations” like Unasur hardly even notice Venezuela. What has Almagro really DONE? Nothing, except hablar un poco de paja, a veces.

    Some think the USA or Europe are truly concerned, heck they hardly helped the Greeks next door, and the US doesn’t do anything for Mexico or Latin America’s miserable countries. Granted, many seem to have more food and medicine – and less murders and crime – than Venezuela, but why expect they will “help”, sending food and medicines? Sending teachers to educate our population? Giving them becas to go to College? (so that they never return, We never return to that mess).

    So dream on. Pray that the USA or any other country will come to Venezuela’s rescue. Vene-what? Where? They have their own problems and challenges. Don’t you think even global warming is much more important than Venezuela for the Trump administration?

    Sure, he’ll give a couple of BS speeches in Florida, if he wants to get re-elected for a 2nd term. You know, to keep the old Cubans’ Republican vote. But that’s it. And if Maduro opens his big mouth against “el imperio yankee” even Trump is not stupid enough, and would laugh at it, if he even hears about it. Much bigger fish to fry than “Venezue-what?

    • ““Venezue-what?”

      “That little country that tries to keep smuggling tons of drugs every month to our country, Mr. President, even their government are fully committed into it, part of the president family tried to smuggle almost a ton of coccaine in 2016, they’re purging life-sentence in Guantanamo now.”

  21. What the U. S. would/should care about is the possible coming bloodbath, plus Venezuela being a conduit for much of the drugs being smuggled to it.

  22. Analysis about what President Elect Trump will do is about as accurate as the polls prior to the election. He has no political experience, or international experience, outside of what was needed for his business ventures, so trying to predict what he will do or what it means for Venezuela is pointless. The good news (for us and the rest of the world) is that Trump is reportedly considering a lot of very smart people for his cabinet. That said, why don’t we all wait and see, because I would bet that 90% of the predictions and assumptions written above will be proven wrong.

    • That’s what the advisors are for, Sean, no one knows everything, as the people with “political experience” often doesn’t know a damn thing about economics for example.

    • Sean,
      You are correct. Trump has a history of surrounding himself with very capable people. The only insight we get regarding a Presidential candidate’s ability to pick a capable cabinet is the choice of a running mate.
      Trump hit a home run with Pence.
      I have already submitted a comment regarding US intervention. Framing the request for assistance in the same light as Panama with a narco- terrorist regime that is assisting drug cartels and in the process violating US sovereignty in my opinion is the way to get Trump to help you.
      This request should be presented by the leaders of other OAS countries. A coalition of OAS countries intervening in Venezuela would be best.
      An intervention plan. A short stay for foreign troops and a solid exit plan after the objective is achieved may persuade Trump and end this humanitarian tragedy.

  23. Being the pragmatist that he is Trump will say. What has the MUD done? any successes? How much are they costing the US? It looks like a loss. Forget it. Let them stew in their own juices.

  24. You have heard him mention Maduro and the Venezuelan regime right? In the same context as the Castros and human rights violations. If anything, he will be good for change in Venezuela. Much better than Obama has proved.

    • RC-

      Stop it right there. Trump would be better off (as well as the rest of us Americanos) if we first see what the MUD/AN are going to do for themselves.

      Its not a “take no position” approach as much as “take a position once SOMEONE has a policy we can get behind”. Right now, MUD/AN needs another boogie man … badly. They prefer to lob insults a day after an election in another country than (re)focus their efforts on how to remove Maduro and the Chavistas.

      The people of VZ want/need our help. Their incompetent leaders (both sides) are much more interested in arguing with each other and finding straw men to the north than fixing their own country.

  25. The chinese have reason to feel threatened by a Trump presidency, during his campaign he made it a point to attack china’s economic and trade conduct vis a vis the US , the chinese know this , they will be preparing a response that dissuades the US from taking actions that hurt their interests………first Chinese response to Trumps rise to the US presidency announcing a visit by their Chief Leader to latin america were they have invested a lot of money and gained some influence…….The US may not want to pay attention to Latam but its a big complicated world now with a lot of things going on , they cant just shut themselves up and ignore whats happening in their back yard …….

    This is a time of hubris for Trump and his Republican congressional allies , they may be bolder than any past US govt , their constituency is much more hard right patriotic and inimical to leftist regimes (specially those that insult Great America ……..) ., they are much more bessoted with having a Big Army that shows its muscles …….

    I expect a gaggle of black swans to start flying over the horizons of the world , maybe the US position vs the venezuelan regime will be one of them ……..!! Time will tell ……!!

  26. Fact: Donald Trump voted for John Kerry when he,ran for President against George Bush. There can be no reasonable debate about the fact that Kerry is a non interventionist and Bush was the opposite. Forget all of this nonsense that Trump is an unknown commodity in foreign relations. He will not act to intervene in Venezuela. Just forget about it.

    • Yeah, the “hey, we unarmed, unorganized, and completely crushed venezuelans are the only ones that can get out of this” idea, again.

      Chavista propaganda of “sovereignity” and “the mean ebul empire” really infiltrated in so many people’s minds…

  27. I think that Trump will hand over all of Latin America to the Rubio wing of the Republican party. They will no doubt feel emboldened to increase the number of Venezuelans subject to sanctions in the US. Clearly Maduro’s strategy has been the double-down bet. Give a medal and a job to every person under US sanction. But… individually, these sanctions have to sting. Everyone with money always believes that more money will open more doors, travel, party, people to meet, etc., but these sanctions are pretty limiting in that regard and no doubt come with some warnings to Interpol.

    Trump is the biggest garbage talker we have seen in US politics in quite some time. I think he is going to be scared shitless when it comes to actual military disruption. Counterintuitively, it will be harder for him to order drone kills, torture detainees, and even build a wall. A responsible person with an intellectual grasp of the moral costs of killing your enemy can eventually factor the decisions that have to be made as Commander of the Armed forces. But a psychologically fragile person might resort to magical thinking or depend heavily on surrogates to make decisions. Trump is essentially a frivolous person who shows this in every detail of his life. At best he might throw a tantrum about a free trade agreement. But in the end, you can’t mold economic reality to your interests without choking off its efficient functioning.

    The US has actually been fairly consistent in dealing with Venezuela. Take a morally respectable stand diplomatically, but do not engage on the ground. Let the crazies demonstrate their stupidity and hope that the democratic forces are up to the fight. Engaging in vitriolic fights only cheapens the presidency. Let see if Trump is capable of that.

  28. Tom Shannon who runs Vzla policy at State Dept will be replaced. This is good because under Tom, Venezuela and its American hostages are an annoyance.

    Trump is going to field hawks in foreign policy. Newt Gingrich will probably be SecState and he is very smart, much smarter than Kerry.

    The US will look at Vzla as the narcotics basket case that it is. The Venezuelan State is clearly responsible for shipping record tonnage of cocaine to the US. This is the clear and present danger.

    Trump is avowed anti-drugs (cocaine) and US law enforcement (local and federal) is clamoring for the resources to go after the bad guys. Not since 41 has law enforcement had the tools to really make a dent.

    Venezuela is rich in material to be used by Trump and any war of words would see the regime at losing end. If Trump decides to scapegoat Vzla he can become worst nightmare for regime.

  29. Newt Gingrich is on the record about Venezuela…. he was on Rush talking about VZ so you can get an idea of his thoughts. Newt will be the smartest guy in the room. VZ has to tread carefully, if they bait DT and try to scapegoat him, they may regret it. Guys on the front lines are hungry for action. Everyone is clear on VZ, cocaine, and the threat it represents to America.

    • Newt is a fool and not going to be a driver for foreign policy with VZ.

      VZ gubmint and its actions toward US interests will do all the work.

      The “hawks” are finding they have little influence Trumps cabinet.

      I could be wrong, but, time will tell.

  30. Demócratas on disarray, they could join the club opened here ,oppo pundits on disarray since the opposition became majority And no one knew what to do..because capriles was waiting for gods answer and they gave him 3.576897 answers and he was just expecting one… or two maybe and leopoldo was roting… paying for crimes commited against the new party of the people… the party of the blujeand t shirts…

  31. I don’t think we will know how U.S. Foreign Policy may change until the new SecState is named and confirmed by the Senate. Trump is clearly way out of his depth on this subject, so everything will depend on who he chooses to head the State Department. Personally, I hope it will be strong senior career diplomat instead of a politician. That would be in line with Trump’s overall election themes. I happen to like John Bolton for the position, but there are other well qualified candidates at State.


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