Caracas Chronicles

Four years ago, the government of Alberto Fernández began its downward spiral. At the same time, the Juntos por el Cambio alliance emerged as the frontrunner for the next elections, and Javier Milei was elected as a national deputy. Those midterm elections marked a turning point in Argentine history—and among the many forces at play, 40,000 Venezuelan-born voters played an interesting role.

Now, Alberto Fernández is under investigation for gender-based violence against his former partner, former First Lady Fabiola Yáñez. At the same time, his Vice President, two-time President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, has been convicted in corruption charges. 

Meanwhile, Juntos por el Cambio, the coalition that once ended 12 years of Kirchnerist rule, has fallen apart. After placing third in the election and failing to reach the runoff, the alliance collapsed. Its presidential candidate, Patricia Bullrich, didn’t waste time; she joined the new government as Security Minister, a role she’s held before.

And at the center of it all is Javier Milei, the first libertarian president in history. His rise to power, without a traditional political structure and with a clear minority in Congress, shook the system. Now, he’s aiming to strengthen his party’s influence in the upcoming election and once again, the Venezuelan vote could be a game changer.  

The current panorama

After a year in office, it’s clear that Argentina’s political class still hasn’t figured out how to handle Milei. The president routinely sidesteps Congress, where his party lacks majorities, favoring reforms through special presidential decrees. Meanwhile, he oscillates between blasting his allies as part of la casta (the political elite) and later hailing them as heroes of change. But now, the infighting within his own ranks is reaching its peak. He has publicly broken ties with his vice president, Victoria Villarruel and, more recently, former president Mauricio Macri.

Macri has been one of Milei’s most influential allies. He was instrumental in repairing the relationship between Milei and Patricia Bullrich, clearing the path for her endorsement in the runoff and her eventual entry into the cabinet. His party, PRO, intervened multiple times to help rescue Milei’s bills in Congress, playing a key role in advancing crucial legislation. And overall, Macri has been the closest figure Milei has had to a political mentor.

However, the president’s so-called “Iron Triangle,” as he proudly refers to it, has now turned against PRO—and Macri himself. Karina Milei, his sister and Secretary General of the Presidency, together with Santiago Caputo, the strategic architect behind his campaign, are working to position the libertarian movement as the dominant force across Argentina’s center-right spectrum. Their main target is Macri’s crown jewel: Buenos Aires City. By seizing control of the capital, they hope to absorb PRO and consolidate their grip on the entire center-right political landscape.

Mi Buenos Aires Querido 

PRO has ruled Buenos Aires City for over 15 years, becoming the main stronghold against Kirchnerism. The city underwent a dramatic transformation under Macri’s leadership, with his popular reforms paving the way for his presidential run and victory in 2015. In the most recent election, Macri’s cousin, Jorge Macri, was elected Chief of Government. 

But Jorge Macri’s government hasn’t lived up to the standards set by his predecessors. The city has faced a serious security crisis in recent months, with 13 prisoners escaping from jails this year alone. Waste collection and cleaning services have declined, and it seems the city government isn’t implementing reforms as fast as the national government. The polls clearly reflect this growing dissatisfaction.

This has turned the Buenos Aires race into the most competitive election in decades, with polls showing a three-way tie between PRO, La Libertad Avanza, and the Kirchnerist/Peronist coalition.

With Milei’s La Libertad Avanza gaining ground in the polls, Jorge Macri made a strategic move to protect his majority in the city legislature by bringing the elections forward to May 18th, marking the first time in over a decade that Buenos Aires will vote separately from the national schedule. The logic is simple: without Milei actively involved in the race, and with the national government lacking structure and strong candidates, PRO stands a much better chance of holding onto the city. What Macri didn’t expect was for the “Iron Triangle” to nominate Manuel Adorni—the high-profile presidential spokesperson—and for national ministers, even Milei himself, to jump into the city election campaign.

This has turned the Buenos Aires race into the most competitive election in decades, with polls showing a three-way tie between PRO, La Libertad Avanza, and the Kirchnerist/Peronist coalition. With margins this tight, the Venezuelan vote has emerged as a key group to target.

Porteñozuelans 

Four years ago, in the last midterm election, around 40,000 Venezuelans were eligible to vote in Buenos Aires City. Now, that number has doubled, with around 84,000 Venezuelans voting in this election, being the biggest immigrant group to do so. The surge in numbers is largely due to the fact that most Venezuelans now have permanent status, giving them the right to vote in local elections. To put that number in perspective, Jorge Macri won his primary election by just 28,398 votes. 

This means the Venezuelan vote represents a significant slice of the electorate—and in such a tight race, it could be the deciding factor between victory and defeat in the final stretch. That’s why both PRO and La Libertad Avanza are mobilizing their political machinery to win over Venezuelan voters.

Macrismo old school 

Macrismo held a monopoly on the Venezuelan vote before Milei’s rise. PRO was once the most right-leaning party in Argentina, and during his presidency, Mauricio Macri was a key supporter of the Venezuelan opposition. He was also one of the first world leaders to recognize Juan Guaidó as interim president. 

Macri is remembered for supporting Venezuelans when mass migration to Argentina began, facilitating migration regularization, educational credential recognition, and policies aimed at helping the community adapt. But that was eight years ago. Now, both Mauricio and Jorge Macri know that they need to reconnect with the Venezuelan community, and they are doing it through a familiar route: NGOs.

The libertarian campaign continues to tap into the strategies that helped them win over many Venezuelan voters in the past: delivering a strong anti-chavista message, featuring figures like 80s pop Venezuelan singer Azabache, and now bringing Patricia Bullrich into the city race.

The Venezuelan community is politically active and well-represented, with over 40 legally recognized NGOs, many of which have long-standing ties to the Buenos Aires city government. PRO knows this network well, having collaborated with several of these organizations over the years. Their strategy is clear: leverage those connections to position themselves as allies of the community. That approach was on full display recently when former Juan Guaidó ambassador Elisa Trotta inaugurated the first Venezuelan community house in Argentina. PRO’s top candidates, including lead candidate Silvia Lospennato, were front and center at the event. 

The prominent presence of PRO’s top candidates at these events also reflects a strategic effort to avoid losing ground to Horacio Rodríguez Larreta. Jorge Macri’s predecessor and former presidential candidate is making a political comeback in this election, but this time, outside of PRO. He’s focused on criticizing Jorge’s administration and has clashed publicly with Mauricio Macri. Larreta, too, is tapping into his connections with these Venezuelan NGOs, even fueling speculation about a Venezuelan-born candidate on his list. In the end, a Cuban activist filled the spot, but the move has clearly unsettled PRO.

Maria Corina’s friend(s)

Larreta and Macri aren’t the only former PRO presidential candidates making waves in this election. Patricia Bullrich is also in the game, and she’s playing hard for her new boss, President Milei. As Security Minister, she’s taken on a key role in managing the tense relationship between Milei’s government and Venezuelan authorities.

During her time as a congresswoman, Bullrich visited Venezuela multiple times, forging strong ties with opposition leaders like National Assembly member Richard Blanco, now living in Argentina, and María Corina Machado, with whom she shared a long-standing friendship. She also played a key role in blocking Nicolás Maduro’s visit to Argentina in 2021 and has been a vocal critic of chavismo.

Bullrich also played a role in securing asylum for aides of Machado at the Argentine Embassy in Caracas in March 2024. She has also served as the government’s representative during the mass protests held by Venezuelans in Buenos Aires following the July 28th electoral fraud. Bullrich also took part in welcoming Edmundo González during his first Latin American visit earlier this year in Buenos Aires, where thousands of Venezuelans gathered in Plaza de Mayo, chanting “Thank you, Milei!” when both González Urrutia and Milei appeared at the historic Casa Rosada balcony. 

The libertarian campaign continues to tap into the strategies that helped them win over many Venezuelan voters in the past: delivering a strong anti-chavista message, featuring figures like 80s pop Venezuelan singer Azabache, and now bringing Patricia Bullrich into the city race.

Both Karina and Javier Milei are counting on the Venezuelan vote to boost support for Manuel Adorni in what they see as a key battleground, one that could mark the beginning of their real political foothold in the city of Buenos Aires. A symbolic victory over Macri’s PRO would signal that Milei is now the only political force in Argentina capable of building a strong, winning coalition to challenge Peronism once again. Now, the eyes turn to the 84,000 Venezuelan voters: will they give PRO another shot at running the city, or will they back Milei and help him cement his power in this new political era?