Lessons from Tehran

In many ways, Ayatollah Khamenei operates in a similar fashion to the Maduro regime. He focuses above all on clinging to power despite prolonged international pressure and humiliation. He rules over a population that remembers better (even if imperfect) times and has expressed dissent massively, being brutalized for that over and over again. And moves the needle according to the circumstances by resorting to internal terror, malign foreign influence, and a willingness to negotiate with foreign powers—or a combination of those three—in order to breathe and stabilize until the next crisis.

Now, the Iranian regime is reeling after U.S. strikes on three nuclear facilities and sustained Israeli attacks that are overwhelming its air defenses. The blow and humiliation has been immense—strategic, financial, and symbolic. China watches from afar, and Russia, busy in Ukraine and having lost the Assad regime in December, offers little tangible support.

Khamenei must respond with “enough force” to deter future strikes, but not so much as to invite devastating retaliation: Iran’s measured strike to an American base in Qatar seems to follow that logic.

The Maduro regime is watching closely, as this conflict lays bare its vulnerabilities as an isolated autocracy that relies on Russian and Iranian technology, equipment and advice—and theoretically is as exposed as Iran to foreign intelligence operations. Maduro and his associates may well be wondering: if the U.S. and Israel can do this to one of my main allies, what could they do to me?