Our latest Political Risk Report discussed the long-awaited electoral calendar:

The opposition will need Washington’s leverage to pressure the regime into accepting a renewal of the CNE—no small ask, given that a compliant electoral board has been a cornerstone of chavismo’s grip on power for decades. Complicating matters further is the question of how independent the reconstituted Supreme Court will be: eight justices are departing, and the total number of seats is reverting from 20 to 32.

A transition that starts with the legislative elections before presidential elections is both good news and bad news, and for both the opposition and for chavismo. For the opposition, it would mean a slower transition, but having the presidential election first also brings risks: the newly elected president would have to govern at least for a few months with an hostile chavista parliament with a large enough majority to block and sabotage their reform attempts, remove and appoint Supreme Tribunal justices, and even change the constitution.

For chavismo, holding the presidential election later extends their hold on power, but once they give up Miraflores, they won’t have the comfort of still controlling any branch of power to protect themselves from the opposition’s revenge.

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