Watch Venezuelanalysis suddenly start touting Keller’s numbers…
Poll: Chavez would win recall vote
CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) — Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez would narrowly win a recall vote if it were held now because of a divided opposition and low turnout by disillusioned voters, according to a poll released Friday.
Thirty-five percent of registered voters backed Chavez while 31 percent would vote against him, said local pollsters Alfredo Keller & Associates which conducted the survey in late March.
Another 34 percent of those questioned opposed Chavez but were likely to abstain from voting in any referendum because they were frightened or had lost faith in the opposition.
“If there was a referendum at this time Chavez would win,” the firm’s president Alfredo Keller told reporters. “The opposition certainly has the majority, but that majority is fractured in two blocks.”
Polls up until now had suggested Chavez would lose the referendum.
My two cents: Keller’s poll is not as incompatible with GQR’s results as it might seem. The difference is basically about how they figure “likely voters” – Keller goes much further than GQR in excluding from his results people he doesn’t think are likely to vote. Grim.