Not to get too Robertsonian about this, but Alberto Garrido’s interview got me thinking. As Garrido points out, Chavez’s whole strategy is predicated on the hypothesis that the US will invade Venezuela sooner or later. Antichavistas usually see the asymetrical warfare stuff as a paranoid delusion, or as a government smoke-screen to justify setting up a repressive paramilitary aparatus to counter dissent.
But what if we borrow a page from Garrido and actually take the guy seriously?
Well, first we have to recognize that, under current geopolitical circumstances, with an overstretched US military struggling in Iraq and US defense strategists focusing narrowly on North Korea and Iran, the chances of an invasion in the short term are nil. Chavez the Military Man probably understands that, even if Chavez the Demagogue wouldn’t say it.
So if he earnestly believes there will be an invasion, it seems reasonable to infer that he is planning to change the geopolitical equation somehow. To change it in some drastic way that would take a US invasion from the realm of paranoid fantasy to that of real possibility.
What could possibly get the Pentagon’s panties up into such a frightful bunch that they would actually consider invading?
Well, you tell me.
Here are a few hints: over the last few months and days, one of Chavez’s top tier intellectual advisors has gone on the record arguing Venezuela should develop nuclear weapons. We’ve seen a bid from Venezuela to buy a nuclear reactor from Argentina. We’ve seen Venezuela take a lone stand in favor of Iran’s nuclear program at the recently enNobeled IAEA. Even more ominously, we’ve seen Chavez cozying up to North Korea, complete with language about launching commercial relations.
Now, what is the ONE and ONLY thing North Korea has to sell that Venezuela might like to buy?