Quico says: A trusted reader with access to polling data I could only dream of writes in. Our forecast map looks optimistic to him. Says only Sucre and Nueva Esparta are genuine Deep Blues. Zulia, tightening. Táchira, tightening. Carabobo, tightening. Miranda, dead even. Aragua, Anzoátegui, Bolívar, Vargas, Yaracuy and Caracas-at-Large: all well out of reach.
In states where we’re behind, we’re way behind. In states where we’re ahead, we’re barely ahead. The one bright spot: Trujillo, where the dissident chavista has a better shot at upsetting PSUV than most realize.