Scenario 1: As explained here, Chavez loses the Referendum. Three months later, he brings it up again. If he fails, he asks again in three months. He keeps going and going until he gets his way.
Scenario 2: Chavez loses the Referendum. He resigns. According to the Constitution, the Vice-president takes office, and in thirty days new elections for President are called. The winner finishes the current term. Chavez runs again, is elected, and he claims he can then run again in 2012 because, technically, he is in his first term of office. The TSJ agrees.
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