Just so we’re clear on how big an ask that 26S Victory Map I keep on the right-hand column is, I thought we should review what the "Circuit-by-Circuit" results have been in the last 3 votes. After the jump, you can see three maps that vividly illustrate the alarming and deepening concentration of oppo votes in the cities. The 2009 Map, in particular, is hard to look at: just a sea of red.
So, these three maps are our baselines. Even in a relatively positive scenario like the one in 2007, when we won a simple majority of the national popular vote, we would’ve ended up with just 55 out of 165 seats. That’s the cochinada for you.
And here, just for reference, is our Target Map for 26S (to get a 50%+1 seat majority in the A.N., we’d have to win all the blue circuits):
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I still feel good about 26S, but there’s no way around it: the playing field is very far from level.