The real reason he's being so friendly

By
Juan Cristobal Nagel
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0

His numbers are in the tank.

Percentage of people saying Venezuela is either stuck or in decline: 68.4%.

Percentage of people who think the country is headed in the wrong direction: 63.1%.

The bump Chávez got before the September elections seems to have dissipated.

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1 COMMENT

  2. where did you get these numbers tocayo?
    Are they credible/reliable sources?

    Can you give me the link ? i’d love to see them please 🙂

  3. Hey, Juan:

    I just thought up the perfect title for your Dog Bites Man post:

    716,287 times bitten, 716,288 times shy

    Like it?! OK, granted, it’s about 24 hours too late. Don’t you hate delayed wit? Still, I think it’s really good.

  4. You seditious fools, they are predicting that oil prices will be back up this summer, higher then they were in the summer of 2008. In just a few short months, Chavez Government will be riding high again, and you people will be as marginalized and irrelevent as you deserve to be. The long term increase in oil prices is an inevitable consequence of declining world reserves, and it can only strengthen Chavez and his Government in the long run.

    Socialism or Death!

    • What about Socialist enterprise? Where the hell is it? Only prices of oil matter for Venezuelan economy? You really think you can institute Socialism on petro-populism and demagoguery? NO ME HAGAS REIR, PANA! ESTAS MAS PERDIDO QUE EL HIJO DE LINDBERGH.

      Then, my advice is that you die already, because Socialism will never be in Venezuela, if all that is going for it are oil price increases and demagogic use of oil monies.

      The higher he goes, the harder he will fall… The irresponsible money-printing that you call long-term increase in oil prices will produce another bubble and a bust. Or if there is a long-term increase, alternatives to oil will begin to be competitive. But thinking long term is not a forte of Chavismo, isn’t it?

    • Oil…the biggest corrupter of Venezuela. I say if you want a revolution, a real revolution, stop the drilling. Stop the drilling and pumping right now. Force Venezuela into an new economy. That’s revolution!

    • Loroferoz,

      Just why should I participate in a dialogue with you? You’ve already proven that you are an enemy of socialism, of the revolution, and of common decency, and I have no more interest in having dialogue with you then I have in having dialogue with the hooligans at an English football stadium. Indeed, glorified hooliganism is what the entirety of the Venezuelan opposition boils down to.

    • RBC, what does it say about your hero when, as you admit, his popularity depends on oil prices? I guess you’re happy that it doesn’t depend on what he actually does. Heaven forbid he be held accountable for things within his control.

    • [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ouDRDzqTu0M&fs=1&hl=en_US]

      Cualquier parecido con la realidad es pura coincidencia.
      Someone needs to make the adaptation of this clip to RBC,

    • Quico, I’m with JC. This is fun, much more so than, say, discussing diacriticals. (Personal fond reminiscences of them notwithstanding for certain individuals.)

    • But you still only have oil prices going for “Socialism” (or it’s chavista caricature thereof), and ONLY them. Which you did not create. And at that, a diminishing share of oil prices. Something like 2.1-2.4 MM barrels per day, they say.

      And I am not an enemy of YOUR managing your economic life as you see fit, with or without others. If you want to be Socialist with whoever wants to join you, I am just watching. I am an enemy of YOUR managing my economic life, or that of other unwilling parties.

    • The long term apparent increase in oil prices is the result of the devaluation of the US$, a smoke and mirrors act perpetrated by the American Establishment. The EURO is in on this act too. The ounce of gold used to buy 20 greenbacks and now it buys about 1400 greenbacks. So if you look at the price of oil now, you find it is cheaper now than then.

    • Oh, Johnny, give us a break! You probably also think man has never been to the moon, right?

      The secret devaluation of the dollar and the euro is the cause of oil prices going not 20, not 30%, not 80%, not 200% but much more over the average price in 1998?

      And can you tell me against what currency? This is all forward market for gold stuff, right? Nothing like offer and demand? Can you be more precise? Elaborate on the numbers, particularly?

      Do you know how much oil consumption has gone up since 1998? Do you HAVE concrete numbers on that?

      Or you read it all in some Aporrea article by some guy called Vladimir Pacheco or Fidel Pérez?

  8. Red Blooded Chavista,
    I don’t think Socialism nor Capitalism are iherently good or bad. Either can go either way… do you disagree with that?

  9. Oil prices will indeed go up and Chávez will have a bit of room to pilfer more.
    Now: oil prices need to go up at least 10% every year for Venezuela to have a GDP growh that matches its population growth.
    Last year there was 26% rise in oil prices. Chances are we will have the same this year.
    It’s incredible how many resources are wasted in Venezuela.
    And Chavista sympathizers do not have the balls to say it: their weakening is based on oil price rise alone. That has nothing, absolutely nothing to do with a revolution.
    Their “socialism” is nothing more than their red shirts and red trousers and red caps.
    Their obsession with wearing red makes them a parody of a communist. They are just über-authoritarian red-clad Adecos having a wet dream with an un-historical Bolívar and a little lieutenant-psycopath.

    Venezuela is going to collapse one day and it will be big big big time.
    As Uslar Pietri said, it will be a case for United Nations and the Red Cross.

    This year’s Car Exhibition where I live has lots of electric cars. They are still a tiny niche. They won’t be just a tiny niche in 20 years.
    Venezuela does not need just oil prices, but exponentially rising oil prices. Cuando explote, no quiero estar cerca.

    • I love this part Kepler: “They are just über-authoritarian red-clad Adecos having a wet dream with an un-historical Bolívar and a little lieutenant-psycopath.”

    • Correction:

      Last year there was an oil price increase of 26%. This year the government is predicting “a boom” of about 2%, which will be below the region’s average. Others predict less. In any case: Venezuela’s population growth is about 1.8%.
      In other years we got at least 10% growth for such an increase of oil prices.

      The pseudo-revolution is dependent on ever higher oil prices.

    • Kepler – you have surpassed your rhetoric at last. However, your words are just empty phrases elaborated to simply justify a reality you cannot essentially comprehend from Germany.

  10. As dollars get ever more scarce, and as industrial and agricultural production get even lower, and as the public gets ever more desperate, and the words get ever more empty, as the excuses get ever more unbelievable, and as the threats of police, military and melitia aggression get ever more irrelavent in the face of fear of chaos, hunger and paralysis of the economy, and as the public loses hope in the Bolivarian revolution and realizes that failure to act, to sieze the day, to take responsibility for their destiny, to create the future worth the effort and sacrafice that the times demand…. then, and only then, will the history be shaped by those who are most effected by it….. DEMOCRACY!

    • Incredible that 6 people (so far) rate this comment. Gordo’s “analysis” sounds more like a reflection of desperation in North Korea or Haiti. There is so much desperation that the traffic is even more unbrearable than usual is Caracas – all new shiny vehicles with well-dressed people in them. Sure sounds like people are desperate.

  12. A Nicaraguan friend from my husband’s work said he heard Chavez’s latest speech on TV in which he says he is going back to democracy.That was his basic interpretation of Chavez’s speech announcing his decision to give up his enabling powers in 6 months.He thinks Chavez has realized that dictatorship will not work for him and is voluntarily giving up his power and might even decide not to run for future elections.

    Obviously in this case Chavez’s goal to confound and confuse worked as this person being from the left was still starting to disapprove of Chavez because of his dictatorial tendencies.

    A little information is often worse than none at all.

  13. Yes, this time Chávez is finished. How many times have we read the same cry on Caracas Chronicles since the oil industry sabotage of 2002 – 2003? Hundreds of times and both Francisco and Juan Nagel continue to believe this….in their desperation to return to the IV Republic rule which created all the problems Chávez is still facing. I am amazed that two supposedly “intelligent” people can be so naive and foolish.

    • Arturo,

      Chávez is more IV Republic than any of us. Most Chávez supporters were active adecos and others, the top, were military or cops shooting at people during IV Republic times (just two examples are Chacín and Bernal).
      In these 12 years Chávez has had several times the petrodollars the governments from 1986 to 1998 had. Go check the figures.
      He managed to increase the murder rate in 300%>. Big thing.
      And produced the greatest emigration of highly qualified Venezuelans in the country’s history. For how long are you going to blame it on a Republic you have more to do than we do?
      The governor of Monagas? Former adeco. Aristóbulo, adeco as well. Chaderton? Guess.
      For how long do you think oil prices will keep climbing 26% a year?

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