What the game looked like when it changed


I got a Moody’s Investor Report from a friend. The money quote is actually the graph above.

It shows what the game looked like, according to Consultores 21, right before cancer struck.

There are no numbers yet showing the effect of the President’s illness. However, I have spoken to a few people in the opposition camp who say, based on focus groups, that Chávez won’t get much of a cancer bounce. To paraphrase, the people that love him still love him, and the people that don’t like him continue to not like him.

It’s fair to say Venezuelan politics has been turned on its head with the President’s illness. Regardless, this graph showing Henrique Capriles Radonski as the nation’s most popular politician, is quite surprising.

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  1. Henrique Salas 42%? They must be kidding. I am Valenciano and I tell you: we vote for Henrique just because it’s either him or Chavismo. I honestly don’t think many people outside our region would like him. You could get 42% only if you asked people in El Trigal Centro, 1000 metres around the governor’s house.

  2. And where, pray tell, are Maria Corina Machado’s numbers?
    Was she just not a choice in the question?
    Was it an open ended question?

  3. The first pic I saw of Capriles Radonski in Miranda (I don´t remember if it was Barlovento or Guarenas) with half his body underwater made me believe in him politically. It was a similar move that made Enrique Mendoza great in his time, and it showed that Capriles, no matter how “oligarca”, was willing to go anywhere for his state; something Chávez and his governors were no longer doing…

    Although symbolic, it represented a lot to many people, and got a lot of exposure in all media. Obviously he´s doing a lot of stuff right, but for me, that moment represented his second coming, a lot of people became disenchanted with him in Baruta (I really don´t know why), but everyone seems to love him nowadays.

  4. I don’t claim to know the mind of Venezuelans, or that the poll is wrong. The two most incredible things to me are that first, Diosdado Cabello even figures. The second, that Nicolas Maduro and Tarek El Aissami are more popular than Henri Falcon.

    Maybe a Henrique Capriles as President, with Leopoldo Lopez as VP/Interior Minister ticket is a sure winner.

    • I’m thinking knowledge of the person has something to do with it. It’s not that Henri Falcon is unpopular, it’s that fewer people know who he is.

      • I’ve thought for a while now that a Capriles candidacy naming Falcon as VP (if elected) would go pretty far………

      • I was thinking it was polarization, we have become a country of IFF mechanisms. Opposition supporters would not name him because they don’t identify him as Friend, and chavistas would not either he is no longer theirs (Also sprach ZaraChavez).

        On the other hand Henri Falcon has shown himself to be an effective mayor and governor, as well as the possessor of an actual personality, compared to the drones he trails in popularity.

      • First of all, it would be diverse, with different aims, ideology and worldview. Much like the present opposition.

        Second, and related to the first point, it would not feature Hugo Chavez as the be-all, the only conceivable leader and messiah. That Hugo Chavez himself has other concerns right now helps a world.

        Third, it would include, as in any normal country, people and parties who could and would vote the opposition ticket at 2012 elections (if only because they cannot stand Chavez’s authoritarianism) along those who would vote Chavez. Then, differences in ideology and aims would show.

        Fourth, it would be committed to being a political alternative, and not -like Hugo Chavez and his mentor Fidel Castro- to ending politics in Venezuela and substituting a totalitarian system for them.

  5. Capriles out in front isn’t surprising at this stage. He set his stand out for 2012 earlier than most & is doing a reasonable job keeping himself in front of the news. There’s a long way to go yet tho…

    But I am surprised at how popular politicians are in general. I can’t imagine any North American or European country coming any where close. Another example of the extreme polarisation I guess.

  6. This slide shows a politicians’ popularity, not its presidential possibilities. I’m sure the question for this data set gos like: “Do you like or dislike the following politicians”….

    Still, not bad at all….


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