Highlights from the Varianzas November 5th-17th Poll (N=1,900)

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This poll was out in the field early last month, so of course it doesn’t capture any changes stemming from the November 15th debate, or from last night’s. And the sample misses the huge chunk of Venezuelan opinion that lives in small cities and towns. Still…

Plenty more after the jump….

1 COMMENT

  1. Fecha de campo: 5 al 17 de Noviembre de 2011
    Tamaño de la muestra: 1.900 entrevistas
    Población Electoral: 17.575.975 aprox. (Representa el 61% de la PG)
    Población General: 28.949.489 aprox.
    Error de muestreo: ±2,3% Nivel de Confianza:95%
    Unidad de análisis: Mayores de 18 años de edad de ambos sexo, en hogares.
    Tipo de muestreo: Probabilístico estratificado con asignación proporcional
    de las variables socio-demográfica. Cinco fases de selección: Entidades, Municipios, Parroquias, Puntos muestrales y 1900 viviendas.
    Entidades seleccionadas: Gran Caracas, y las áreas metropolitanas de Valencia-Pto. Cabello-Guacara, Maracay-Turmero-La Victoria-Villa de Cura, Barquisimeto-Torres-Palavecino, Barcelona-Puerto La Cruz-Simón Rodríguez, Puerto Ordaz-Ciudad Bolívar-Upata, Maracaibo-San Francisco-Cabimas, Coro-Pto Fijo, San Cristóbal-San Antonio, Guanare-Acarigua-Araure, Cumaná-Carúpano, Barinas-Barinitas, San Juan De Los Morros-Calabozo-Valle de la pascua, San Felipe-Yaritagua-Chivacoa-Nirgua, Maturín-Ezequiel Zamora, Mérida-Vigía-Ejido.

    • Looks like a good choice, they definitely covered quite some secondary cities
      It’s sad the Fat Man in the Palace still reaches 49%

    • thank you, JC, for that vital addition to the post. that’s the sort of information that should accompany any poll wishing to gain credibility points.

    • Great news for Capriles, but not so great news for the opposition. If you see the ficha tecnica of the poll. The areas of study are only urban areas. In urban areas we (the opposition) are stronger than the government, whereas in rural areas the government is much stronger than us.

      Conclusion: the way the poll was designed, I can affirm that it is a little biased towards us. This doesn’t change anything; oppo still has to work hard.

  2. ugh.. great news for Hugo Chavez. I think I hate to be the voice of negativity ehre but with 49% support and the money in the govement’s coffers it will be very hard to beat him.

      • 1) Candidate should focus on secondary cities first (cities such as Punto Fijo, Maturín, Acarigua, Puerto Cabello, Tocuyito, Calabozo and 30 other more). Only then should he go to the poor areas of the top 4 cities. Then he can go to a couple of Paraparas (where less than 10% of the population lives).
        2) national “leaders” such as Ledezma and some of the defeated pre-candidates should also keep touring through all those cities after Feb., just as in other countries the national leaders other than the candidate keep travelling, now to support their leader. It is not about one person. This will give a strong signal: we are breaking with caudillismo.
        This can be fatal for the Fat Man in the Palace. Think the Tortoise and the Hare.
        3) The candidate needs to localize his message. There is NOT one Venezuela. There are at least 14 to 20 Venezuelas. To do that s/he needs good executive reports about the regions’ economics, general societal problems and some historical background (5 minutes is enough per region, that beats what Chávez knows…but then so far Chávez does uses his 10 megabyte corrupted regional data whereas the others never talk about those regions from those regions’ perspective.
        This is doable.

        • Glass half full: Chavismo has a candidate with all the money, all the media, all the charisma, and all the power, and they are still running neck-and-neck with a 38-year old twerp.

          Furthermore, their candidate may not even be around in October. So if I’m chavista, I’m not liking these numbers.

          Finally, Varianzas is no Consultores 21, so let’s take this with a grain of salt. It would seem to me their sample is biased toward chavistas, if anything.

          • Great and optimistic point of view.
            We shall add that they oppo is just focusing on primaries for now. The real take off will be after February.

          • Also on the bright side: it seems the candidate that’s likely to win the primaries has the best chance to beat Chavez in a presidential election. It may be early to tell but so far that’s the case.

      • Indeed. Perhaps they didn’t ask the right question. They should have asked:
        Por candidato X
        Por candidato Y
        No sabe/No dice
        Ni puta idea/Me sabe a …
        Eso de “no sabe” confunde a muchos venezolanos. “Ni puta idea/Me sabe a …” habría obtenido más de 20%.

  3. Unlike some, I think that poll represents good news for Opposition. During the primaries, the Oppos will naturally look somewhat divided and not as powerful. Once the candidate is chosen and they close ranks, they will get a boost in the polls.

    Still, that half of the country would still support the fat man is dismaying and speaks volumes about the state of the country.

  4. Blind polls in Venezuela have no validity due to the fear factor.

    Someone asks Jose Falano who works for the government or an expropriated company who they prefer in the coming elections.
    What the hell do you think he’s going to say – Henrique Capriles???
    Not very likely even if he & his family plan to vote that way.

    These polls showing Chavez with 50% are just not based in logic.

  5. Clearly this is an optimistic survey for the opposition: if it doesn’t include small towns it doesn’t include the PSUV base.

    But what I can’t quite believe is that Chavez has let a left of centre opposition leader (Capriles) get so popular. They must have some serious dirt to let him get so far without so much as an inhabilitado.

    • It’s not that bad. I think about 20 of the 42 largest cities tended to vote for the caudillito last year. Of course, it would have been nice had they added a sample for about 10% of the population living in Parapara-like places.

  6. 1) It overstates Chavez’ popularity, for a number of reasons, including the “fear factor”. No one is going to ” play it safe” by saying they support Capriles, because that might not be safe!

    2)At the same time, it is interesting that Chavez can’t break 50%. It seems that there is an “anybody but Chavez” group which right now, is at least 51% of the population of voters.

  7. I’m sorry not to join the negative chorus: how far was Rosales form Hugo Chavez in Feb. of 2006? About 40 points behind…

    This election appears even, with a big anti-incumbent sentiment looming in. IVAD has reported that a majority of voters wouldn’t like Chavez beyond 2013 for quite some time now.

  8. slghtly OT..
    Here’s why it’s important to keep an open mind when it comes to considering all possibilities, or rumors. In the words of Sherlock Holmes: When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.

    To that effect, the rumor that Gadaffi was considering Venezuela as his next pigeon roost, before he was killed, no longer seems so far fetched. His son, Saadi Gaddafi, appears to have been part of a plot to enter Mexico. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-16075043

  9. What Kepler said.

    The Venezuelan opposition needs to discredit Chavez and chavismo. They need to get the Venezuelan people to understand what the real situation is:

    That Chavez and his gang are stealing, squandering, and ruining.

    That they spend billions of dollars for nothing. That they steal billions and give billions to their friends. That chavista officials are consistently incompetent.

    What is really tragic is the proportion of Venezuelan intelligentsia who can see how chavismo tramples on the rule of law and the principles of democracy – and simply don’t care, because they love the Maximum Leader and hate capitalism.

  10. As this, “And the sample misses the huge chunk of Venezuelan opinion that lives in small cities and towns”, is the case and all other major polls put Chavez around 20 points ahead, you guys certainly have some blogging and convincing to do.

    OT – On yesterday’s “Cayendo y Corriendo” Pérez Pirela used a foto from CC and credited CC as the source on live VTV. Famous at last Quico!

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