Converge on THIS, buddy…

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Venezuelan polling tends to diverge wildly until the last, say, month-or-so before an election, and then polls seem to converge. (Why this happens remains one of life’s little mysteries.)

Anyway, here we are, a little over six-weeks out…so shit’s about to get real on the polling front.

And in that context, Varianzas’s first-half-of-August poll, together with July’s C21 showing Capriles just ahead, well…let’s hope we see convergence around some of that. 

1 COMMENT

  1. Fausto Masó and Roberto Giusti were talking about the most recent Datanálisis poll. According to some inside information they got, the gap between Chávez and Capriles went from 12% to 7% during the last month. They also talked about how the gap has evolved recently according to Datanálisis during the last few months: 17%, 16% 15%, 12% and 7%.
    Caprile won 5 points during the last month, so 7 points in 6 weeks does not seem as an impossible feat…

    • Part of this could also be that as the people polled feel more assured of a Capriles win they are more willing to admit it to a phone pollster.

      I still think the you could add and subtract about 10 points or more due to this fear factor.
      Certainly not less.
      With all the mistakes & problems in the Chavismo election machine in the last few weeks people are getting braver.

      Hay un camino!

  2. “Venezuelan polling tends to diverge wildly until the last, say, month-or-so before an election, and then polls seem to converge. (Why this happens remains one of life’s little mysteries.)”

    Partisan clients have been fully milked and it’s now time to release more accurate polls so as to preserve their professional credibility?

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