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Consultores 21’s June poll has Chávez on 47.9% and Henrique Capriles on 44.5%, well within the margin of error.

Standard disclaimers apply: like all polls, this is  a snapshot of public opinion at the time the question was asked, not a crystal-ball/clairvoyant prediction about what will happen in October. Still, they asked the question, and that’s how people answered.

I’ve yet to hear a really convincing explanation for why Venezuela’s two best pollsters get such wildly different numbers of undecideds.

One thing I know is that the numbers Datanalisis has been throwing around stem from their quarterly omnibus survey, a loooooong survey with questions from many different clients on many different products, issues and ideas.

Somehow, somewhere, the length of the Datanalisis survey itself could be driving Capriles-leaners to refuse to answer the question. But I’m distinctly hazy on the specifics of why that may be.

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  1. Still with the polls?

    Were you able to determine with certainty how they collected data, and thus forming a valuable opinion?

    “Whereof one cannot speak, thereof one must be silent”

    • If Capriles gained 17 points to Chavez’s 3, and the gap between the two is now 7.6%, then Capriles only needs to win half of the remaining undecided voters to gain the lead which is very likely with the 17 to 3 momentum he is showing now.

      • No, you can’t interpet it like that – it’s not like Capriles “gained” 17 points. It’s two separate pollsters with two separate methodologists, one of which is getting far, far higher rates of undecideds…

  2. Nice cherry on top of LVL non-commitally chiding those who take his polls out of context to score political points.

  3. Quico, both polls can’t be right. As simply as that. So I’m afraid you will have to defavoritize on of your two favorite pollsters. Man up and pick one

    • I honestly can’t figure it out. Saúl Cabrera and LVL should put out a joint statement explaining what the hell is happening here…

    • The problem is that they *can* both be right! In one poll, many Capriles voters are coming out as undecided because … well, that’s how people are. When things get closer to the actual election, I think we’re going to see Datan[alisis and C21 converge, hopefully toward the C21 spectrum.

  4. Francisco: survey fatigue and the Helms effect. First, respondents get increasingly more likely to take refusal choices as a survey goes on, just to make the damn thing go by quicker. And it’s not surprising that Capriles supporters are more likely to refuse to answer, or claim to be “undecided”, given the risks of openly supporting the opposition in today’s Venezuela. So, long survey = more undecides, and those who support Capriles would be more likely to refuse to answer in the first place.

    • I think it’s silly to conclude that supporters of one or the other candidate would answer differently for whatever reason. How do you quantify this? If that were the case, the polls would always be useless as one could always argue that the answers provided by the public were not truthful.
      Perhaps an interesting question to ask in a survey would be:
      -Are you afraid to declare your preference for one of the candidates because of potential retaliation?
      We cannot trust survey results only when they produce the numbers that we want to see.
      To see people drawing conclusions about how much support a candidate has based on the estimated number of people that show up at a public gathering is also silly, especially when these demonstrations are done with the only purpose of convincing the millions of people watching on TV -the real target- that they have the majority of the support. It’s a demonstration of force and the capacity to draw people to these mass demonstrations. The number of people present (generally in the order of thousands or perhaps tens of thousands in the best cases) does not correlate with the number of votes the candidate will get (millions), but it is important to show lots of people to TV audiences to convince them that they have the support of a majority of people.

  5. Standard disclaimers apply…

    Well you didn’t said that before the first two times, did you? or is that you are cautious now right?

  6. Polls, schmolls. However they seem consistent on one thing, except for the obviously piratical ones. Chavez polls less than 50%, consistently. Hurling a sh**storm of money around.

  7. Could it be that the APPs (Anonymous Poll Participants) and who believe opinions should not be given for free but should be sold, at a fair price, and that are destroying so much polling around the world have finally arrived in Venezuela?

    • Interesting. My response to several callers of phone surveys, in the past (when I lived in Toronto), was first to ferret out (with difficulty) who they were representing (usually commercial interests), then say ‘no’. No way would I waste 5 minutes of my time, providing gratuitous opinions, which would lead to a profit base for the beneficiary.

      The callers got smarter. They’d dangle a promise of a gratuity ($x), if one answered a few preliminary questions, before “the next stage”. I finally said no to that technique, too.
      Just as I suspect I might have been in the minority, I assume so, too, would be the respondents to a political poll in a highly polarized environment, where the oppo is more optimistic over their chances of winning the election,

  8. This is the one I was waiting for. Consultores 21 has proven to be the most respectful and reliable. I have followed their numbers in each election and they are always pretty close to the final results. Datanalisis cannot say that though I think its a serious pollster. Polls fail for many different reasons, but seeing Venezuela now a days its hard to believe that Chavez is so far away from Capriles. Those numbers don’t make sense to me but C21’s do. I think Chavez is still ahead, but by a little margin. From sunday on, we’ll see how the campaign will change the numbers. It’s a difficult task but not impossible. For the first time in ages I feel optimistic and confident. Pero…amanecerá y veremos

  9. I was an official observer at the Nicaraguan election of 1990, in which unity candidate Violeta Chamorro defeated sitting President Daniel Ortega. In the weeks up to the vote, the whole country was a sea of Sandinista t-shirts, hats, billboards, and tv propaganda. Chamorro beatOrtega by 8%. NO ONE predicted it.

  10. If they give Capriles 44.5% under the current polling conditions of Venezuela then can you imagine what the real number is?

    I still predict he will get 60%+ on 7O.

    • “I still predict he will get 60%+ on 7O.”

      With a fair electoral arbiter, I would buy that.

      With the CNE we have, I really think it’s uphill, both ways.

  11. And for your morning humour:

    Multas de hasta Bs 630.000 para medios de comunicación que apoyen candidatos
    Fines of up to Bs.630.000 for media that support a candidate.

    Como en todas las campañas, la publicidad electoral no podrá atentar contra el honor y reputación de las personas
    Like in all campaigns the election publicity can not attack the honour or reputation of persons.

    VTV will have to shut down 🙂

    • Consultores 21 is just “going with the flow”, and perhaps others will follow. Also, they could have pressed the “Undecideds”, which, as John Magdaleno (former Datanalisis) said on “Alo Ciudadano” recently, are usually 90% Oppo.

  12. So we know that Consultores 21 has produced a June poll. Does that mean, it was published in June? Or were the questions posed of the population base, in May, for subsequent analysis and write-up?

    Disclaimer: I’m no sucker for polling mechanisms nor patronage.

  13. La gente que está por Chávez pero que van a votar por Capriles, lo van a hacer secretamente. No le van a decir a ninguna encuesta porque en el barrio se persigue a la gente.


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