You loved hearing it here first

Consultores 21’s June poll has Chávez on 47.9% and Henrique Capriles on 44.5%, well within the margin of error.

Standard disclaimers apply: like all polls, this is  a snapshot of public opinion at the time the question was asked, not a crystal-ball/clairvoyant prediction about what will happen in October. Still, they asked the question, and that’s how people answered.

I’ve yet to hear a really convincing explanation for why Venezuela’s two best pollsters get such wildly different numbers of undecideds.

One thing I know is that the numbers Datanalisis has been throwing around stem from their quarterly omnibus survey, a loooooong survey with questions from many different clients on many different products, issues and ideas.

Somehow, somewhere, the length of the Datanalisis survey itself could be driving Capriles-leaners to refuse to answer the question. But I’m distinctly hazy on the specifics of why that may be.

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