Put your money where your vote is


A reader sends us this about how the October 7th election is getting more attention abroad:

“I’m sure you’ve heard about Intrade, the predictive market website… I follow it somewhat regularly and they just opened a section about the Venezuelan election.”

“They’ve been pretty right on when it comes to American elections and I can only imagine these people read the same (if not less) of the information and polls we read…”

Here are their current predictions.

It’s a fun data point, but nothing more than that. Prediction markets are often pretty thin, especially so when they deal with on arcane subjects like a fight for the soul of the neovenezolanidad del siglo XXI. A handful of trades involving relatively little money could make Capriles’s InTrade price jump all over the place.

So, caveat intrador



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  1. The event definition, “Hugo Chavez to be re-elected President of Venezuela”, is too ill defined for the reality of Venezuela. Will Tibisay Lucena say he was? It is hard to imagine her saying otherwise. Will Chavez be re-inaugurated in January? Well, that is an entirely different question.

  2. Its a bit gimmicky and redundant if you ask me.
    If you have a Bloomberg monitor check the yield on the PDVSA 2022 bonds or alternatively the price of the sovereign CDS for RBV (last time I checked I think we were at 870 or 900) right nex to Ukraine. However, even the CDS market is a bit thin (and at times irrational, I recall 3 months ago the RBV was below Republic of Portugal). If the market starts to price a Capriles win the CDS should come down (or the yield on the Venezuelan benchmark bonds). Agree that the problem with Intrade may be liquidity (do they publish volume figures?).

  3. Unfortunately, only really liquid markets can be predictive: This chart shows 9 days of activity in the entire month of August, with a total of $150 wagered. The “Will be around by 12/31/2012” is similar.


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