Extrapolation Chronicles

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Datanálisis says that Henrique Capriles leads Hugo Chávez in Miranda, the nation’s second most populous state, by 16 points.

In the 2010 parliamentary elections, in which the opposition beat Chávez by 4 percentage points, the opposition beat Chávez in Miranda by … sixteen points.

1 COMMENT

  1. According to Mr. R.G Aveledo, Capriles´ small-town (-50,000 residents) strategy stems from the fact that Venezuela´s large metropolises are solidly opposition, with the big exception of Caracas. Apparently Libertador will be a large determinant of how this election swings. Positive opposition incursions have been made in sectors like 23 de enero and Catia, but other populous sectors of the capital still remain up for grabs….

  2. Also, the parliamentary elections might not be the best point of reference for extrapolation, since manipulation of voting districts due to well-known gerrymandering of electoral populations distort net voting projections. The Leoncio Martinez parroquia in Sucre, for example, was annexed to the 2nd circuit of Miranda (middle class all the way), therefore lowering the chances of an opposition coalition (Lista) candidate being elected in Miranda, while further diluting the perceived voter intention of the state.Nevertheless… here´s hoping that 16% is right! Extrapolate away!

  3. I was going to write a post about this. This is truly inconsistent. Miranda is 10% of the population and is a very heterogenous state. Chavez won Miranda by 13% in 2006. Thus, this is a shift of 29% from 2006, which could never lead to a national poll with Chavez ahead by 13%. Datanalisis has not changed its stance, so what gives?

  4. OK esto se los pongo facilito: si Datanalisis dice que en Miranda y en Carabobo la oposición arrasa (dicen por ahí que 18 puntos), y con la consabida victoria por por lo menos 10 puntos en Zulia, es IMPOSIBLE, repito, IMPOSIBLE que venga el lunes a decir que Chávez tiene 12 puntos de ventaja, a riesgo de que esa encuesta esté amañada totalmente (no es raro del personaje).

    ¿Por qué lo digo? Porque en la enmienda Chávez ganó CARABOBO y perdió muy cerrado en Zulia y Miranda. Ahí sacó 10 puntos de ventaja. Por lo tanto, a mí no me corta con ese cuchillito de que nos lleva 12 puntos si pierdes en Carabobo, Miranda, Zulia por pela, eso sin contar la pela en Táchira y en Bolívar y la posible victoria en Lara, Mérida, Anzoátegui, Aragua y DF.

    LVL va a tener que buscarse otro oficio, porque ya las campanas están repicando (¿reunión Santos-Capriles?) e indican que ya no pueden seguir escondiendo la votación de Capriles en indecisos.

  5. My request is this: that posters who review and write about pollster predictions mention when the poll was taken. For, in a highly dynamic political scenario, the time differential between the sample and the analysis/write-up is critical. Posters should know this. And yet time and again the timing issue is omitted. Not good. TIA.

  6. So given these numbers, if we extrapolate we shall conclude Capriles wins. According to Jimmy Carter, our electoral system is top of the line, so we shouldn’t be concerned about fraud or the simple fact that the government counts with infinite resources and a whole parade of criminals who are desperate for the emperor to remain in control.

    http://www.noticias24.com/venezuela/noticia/126847/jimmy-carter-considera-que-el-proceso-electoral-en-venezuela-es-el-mejor-en-el-mundo/

    What a schmuck this guy is. Wonder how much Ch contributes to his foundation.

    • The most disconcerting thing about his statement is that he takes a shot at the US Supreme Court for the Citizens United case (Money spent by private individuals on campaigns) while saying that Venezuela has the best electoral system in the world where public money that should be spent building roads or schools is shamelessly spent on the campaign of the ruling party. A PSF with a Nobel Price.

      • Yes, he is. However, I have to credit his grandson, James Carter IV, has somewhat vindicated his grandfather; but, not too much. Jimmy Carter, for whom I voted (I’m so sorry, didn’t know any better, etc., etc. – well, at least I’m honest here) was one of the worst presidents, but he sure gave a convincing message before election time. He should never have received a Nobel prize.

        • The Cat,

          I have never been able to figure out Carter.His countenance is relatively innocent, so it is so hard to reconciles that with the damage he has done.I didn’t vote for him, I never vote since I can never fit with any political party.But there are people who make wonder: is it on purpose or are they just ignorant? If he is ignorant it is shocking, because he has so many possibilities to become informed….if it is on purpose it is hard to imagine such sheer malice and then reconcile it with the face…Sometimes I tire of all these questions as well.

          • FP, NET, I have to think that with Jimmy Carter, there’s a mix of ignorance, stupidity, naiveté, AND dishonesty. I wish I knew where he was coming from. And I know that there are MILLIONS of estadounidenses who feel the same way! I mean, WTF! I don’t believe that he has malice in his heart, or is malintencionado; I just don’t think that he knows any better. And, believe me, that is in NO way condoning what he has done/does. He’s an enigma, and one that we might be better off not acknowledging.

      • Carter is not only naive, he’s dishonest. He didn’t audit the Recall Referendum properly, which was fixed (as per numerous statistical studies/Penn Schoen exit poll). Afterwards, he personally flew in with Gustavo Cisneros to Fuerte Tiuna to negotiate with Chavez the sellout of Venevision (after which Napoleon Bravo’s critical TV program was cancelled and the entire VV news progamming ceased to be critical of the Government). Chavez and Cisneros both are not PSF’s, they are POS’s, and I hope people in Venezuela remember this in the future!

  7. I was about to write about the difference between this poll and the national poll. It is of course weird that for the fourth poll in a row (I`m talking about this poll: http://www.noticias24.com/venezuela/noticia/126881/efe-encuesta-da-147-puntos-a-chavez-sobre-capriles-a-18-dias-para-las-elecciones/ ) undecided voters + voters that don`t answer sum up to be 1/4 of the whole sample. If you ask me… datanalisis is screwing up big time… You can`t have Capriles Winning by 16 points in Miranda and then say that he`s losing by 15 points nation wide. Carajo no hay tanta gente en Delta Amacuro.

  8. Es que simplemente no tiene lógica, Capriles no puede tener 30% únicamente… 30% de los 18 MM de habitantes es 5.4 MM de votos (suponiendo que no haya abstención). En las últimas elecciones la oposición obtuvo 5.9 y con abstención… o sea.

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