Your pick for Capriles’s VP

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Word is that Henrique Capriles will announce, among others, his pick for the vice-presidency tomorrow (Monday.) Who would you like to see in that role?

The VP pick will be the most eye-catching, but also keep an eye open for big announcements in Planning, the Oil Ministry, Finance, Foreign Relations and the Interior (security) ministries, among others.

1 COMMENT

  1. OT: according to La Patilla Capriles is going to announce part of his government (ministers) in a few hours. Do you think it’s a good idea to do this on the campaign? did a candidate ever announced these kind of things on the campaign?

  2. I think it works well if he only mentions the VP: It gives you the main spot in the public agenda for a quarter of what’s left of the campaign.

    The risk with the ministers is that if you call one, you get one friend and 10 enemies. However, I don’t think that’s the case with a position such as the VP.

  3. It’s a no-brainer. The task right now is to win the election. Henri Falcon sends a powerful message to the key constituency – chavistas arrepentidos. My vote goes to Henri (the only problem being, who do you get to replace him as governor of Lara).

  4. I believe he owes LL, who, in my opinion, would still be the best pick. The pick IS important, since a lot could (hopefully, will not) happen post-election, and pre-inauguration 2 months later.

    • Difiero. LL was a precandidato, you don’t want someone who might want to outshine him to run for president in 6 years, Falcon is without a doubt going to be his right hand man. Other people say that you need a true consesus and negotiation person like Aveledo, but I think Capriles has been that person not for the opposition but for the whole country so his pick for VP needs to be a hardcore gerente.

  5. the last “desperate move of desperation” for sure, good luck and get those tickets ” out of Dodge” fast because the party and the delusion is over for the oppo’s and escauldios. Going to see Santo’s did not pay off, hey…

    Rojo Rojito and Chavez by 10 points or more!

    Cort

    • Cort: Better buy your ticket now out of the Evil Empire with its collapsing bridges in order to avoid the last- minute rush of those ex-pats returning to Venezuela to experience the “Profundizacion de La Gloriosa Revolucion Bolivariana”. Don’t worry about living space: just last week in a hillside Barrio nearby a squad of Cubans was going dwelling-to-dwelling asking how many bedrooms each had (true story–happened to a woman working as domestic help in my area, who has 4 bedrooms, 2 unoccupied, and was horrified, as were her neighbors). Or, as the saying goes, put your money where your mouth is….(and bring Sean Penn, Oliver Stone, et. al.).

  6. After thinking about the VP for a bit I think that if he picks Henri Falcon it will be certainly positive campaign-wise. Any of you think the same?

  7. Just 10 minutes ago this was on Twitter:
    Henrique Capriles R. ‏@hcapriles
    Sobre la designación del Gabinete,es posible que antes del 7O anuncie al país el nombre de nuestro(a) VicePdte,sólo eso está planteado

    Also the asshat Oliver Stone on the Venezuelan elections:
    “Norteamericano Oliver Stone ” Chávez ganará y Capriles is not Good”
    http://www.reporteconfidencial.info/noticia/3177179/norteamericano-oliver-stone-chavez-ganara-y-capriles-is-not-good/

  8. Not so sure about Falcon or in the strategy of separating a strong regional leader from their state. Considering Capriles’ youth, an older, savvy politician like Ramón Guillermo Aveledo or Teodoro Petkoff who would take some of the dirty work from Capriles (I mean the most acrimonious statements or responses ) would be my pick.

  9. OT: This is the latest poll from IVAD, Chavez administration approval is 75,8 %
    http://www.noticias24.com/fotos/noticia/2079/graficos-este-es-el-mas-reciente-estudio-de-ivad/
    According to JVR the same poll says that Chavez would win among the A and B classes with 53%
    http://www.noticias24.com/venezuela/noticia/127485/confidenciales-457-de-los-jovenes-votaria-por-chavez-si-las-elecciones-fueran-este-domingo
    Yo no soy de los más optimistas con el resultado de la elección, pero está sí no me la creí, hay una vaina rara con esos números.

  10. I think that announcing the VP pick before-hand is smart – it sends a powerful message as to who your main collaborator will be, and it creates some seriousness into the position – but announcing the cabinet is silly. I’m glad he’s not doing that.

    • The real problem isn’t who he might pick. If he’d done just that, Capriles would be ratifying the actual, mostly inefficient structure of ministries in Venezuela.

  11. Disappointing to see so many people think LL would be a good choice. That would be a bit like Obama picking a black liberal from Chicago as his running-mate. It also sends the message that the top jobs will be allocated according to who owes what to whom. I fail to see the up-side of this idea.

    • Fully agree with donacobius. I would prefer a political operator like R.A Aveledo or a former chavista like H. Falcón.

      One thing hasn’t been mentioned is that Capriles HAS to name his VP before the election, period. Venezuelans need to know who might replace him if worse happens.

    • Exactly. You need to appeal to a different demographic, you need to conquer more than your base. We have learned a lot these years, and Henrique shows it, with his wonderful campaign. We know our hard votes are not enough, and to me, the priority is maximizing the number of possible votes. Falcón can reach where no other man can. He has solid credentials as revolutionary on the people’s side.

      LL cannot give us any additional vote, his demographics and Henrique¡s overlap a lot. I think it’d be a mistake to pick any of the older guard, Aveledo et. al. No, I think they are great people, but if you pick them up the accusations of bringing back the Cuarta will increase. If you pick Falcón there is very little they can say, and actually, you might hit jackpot and throw the government into saying even more stupid and scary things that might motivate Ninis to vote against Ch or Chavistas to stay at home.

  12. Capriles is about youth/change/renovation, and needs a VP representing this+no baggage+who can take over representing what he represents in case of an (unthinkable) contingency.

  13. Question about LL. Since they said he couldn’t run for Presidency (OK, they said he could run but they would decide if he was legitimate afterward) could he really be chosen as VP? I don’t think that Capriles will chose him in the end, but I did vote for him for what he’s done for Justice First and the MUD in general.

      • I thought the ban was for ‘cargos de eleccion popular’
        I think LL would be a dumb choice though. My mum and aunt would love it, but they are voting for HCR already… HF on the other hand?

        To paraphrase Laureano paraphrasing another dude: Miraflores bien vale Lara?

    • That was my question, too. If someone in the MUD has the bright idea that LL is somehow eligible for Veep though not for Prez and HCR goes ahead and picks LL, they are in for one hell of a fight just to keep him on the ticket. That could be a disaster, IMHO. You can make an argument for eligibility – I personally think the argument to let him run for Prez is quite sound – but an argument over that isn’t going to help anything right now.

      When LL bowed out of the presidential race, did he not say he wouldn’t accept the VP spot? I can’t seem to find a “search” function on this blog, or I’d check it out myself…

      • I’m sure he can remove it if he wins – though I wouldn’t call it a pardon, since there was no crime. But it still creates a mess: LL is not eligible to run, but he would be eligible to be Veep if and only if HCR wins, so he could be sworn in though he can’t run? I could just see the TSJ tossing out his candidacy in about a week, maybe just a bit more, whichever timing they think would causes the most chaos.

      • You REALLY have no idea what you’re writing about. You’re saying that pulling the strings is wrong when Hugo Chávez does it but is all right if Capriles should happen to do it. Judiciary for Dummies would be right for you, pal.

        By the time Leopoldo López has a clean slate, Capriles will already have picked all his choices for VP and ministers. That stuff doesn’t happen overnight, does it?

        • I’d like to reply to you, but I frankly have no idea what two things you are comparing. When Hugo Chávez does…what, exactly? “Pulling strings” is not specific. And are you, in fact, arguing that López committed a crime, for which he was never charged or convicted in a country where the system (both prosecutors and courts) is notoriously biased?

  14. I agree with donacobius’s POV and would choose a strong regional leader, discarding those from states which do not seem like swing states at this point (Capriles seems already likely to win in Miranda, Zulia, Carabobo, Lara, Táchira and chabe the same in Vargas, Barinas, Yaracuy, Guárico and Cuba); perhaps someone from Bolívar or Anzoátegui? Mérida? Falcón?

    On a related topic, splitting the Capriles-VP combo for the last stretch of campaigning across Venezuela would mean that they could cover double the territory and, at the same time, this strategy would draw a clear difference with the caudillo style of chabe…

    • Mr. Aveledo would be a superb choice, but I cannot see how his designation as VP would improve Capriles in October. Logic suggest, that it should be someone that adds something to the mix. A left-leaning, experienced politician would be a better campaign choice than Mr. Aveledo.

      • Also, RGA has always said he was not in this for a job, that he would continue to play a back-room role under a Capriles presidency. Of course, a week is a long time in politics, as Harold Wilson remarked. But it would still be mildly disappointing if that were to prove to have been just a line.

  15. I would lean towards Falcon if for no other reason than he accomplishes two main goals that may decide the election: 1). He furthers the apolitical unification agenda by bringing in someone with credentials from the other side of the aisle (at least previously) which will allay the only real accusation that Chavez can level against him which is that he will serve his own class/contigent/demographic. 2). In a similar vein, it secures additional votes from a demographic that he has a shot of capturing; those few points may make or break his run since the variability of the polls is so wild. If he’s within ±3 points, this could be critical. LLopez, while he has contributed to signifcantly and is owe “something” would not be the best choice as it would be analogous to the Ryan selection…shores up those who wouldn’t vote for Chavez in the first place to build party cred, but doesn’t get you bodies at the polls.

  16. OK, hands in the air, I did something of which I am not proud. I voted on behalf of my Venezuelan wife this morning.

    Now that she is fully awake I have been told to change “her” vote to Falcon. In hindsight she is correct, I think.

  17. I think, for many of the reasons already expressed, that Henri Falcon is the better choice at this juncture.

    I would add that as a governor, he has had the executive experience that others like Leopoldo Lopez, MCM, Ramon Guillermo Aveledo (with all due respect to GTAVEX) lack at this juncture.

    I think it is kind of a luxury that he has very many qualified individuals to choose from!

    • No, for the following reasons:

      1) Just jumped the talanquera, too new in the process. WHo knows where his loyalties lie

      2) As crooked as the day is long. Not that most politicians don’t have a “straw butt”, but this one has a large one.

      3)

  18. What about Francisca Duarte? Female, popular among the people and respected by ni-nis and chavistas… 😛
    Anima de Taguapire aside, the pick should be persuading undecided voters. That rules out MCM, Leopoldo and most of the guys on the list, who are too opositor duro. The exception there is Falcon. I’d prefer someone more experienced, but as someone pointed out, it’s about persuading the chavistas arrepentidos and ni-nis about Capriles intentions. With a progressist VP candidate, the rumors of shock therapy and neoliberal hidden agendas should be put to rest.

      • Indeed, but as far as I know it could be just the chavismo attacking “a traitor” out of spite. Anyhow, with a week left before the end of the electoral campaign, there will not be much room for chavismo to maneuver and attack the VP. On the other hand, I think the designation could be a strong sign for the electorate

  19. RGA is the Choice i would make he has done a great work in the MUD ; also i think LL should be designated as Minpopu Interiores y Justicia he’s the one who has been giving the speech and solutions about how to fight crime. So probably he should be the one in charge of it.

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