Experimental Evidence on the Fear Factor?


Make of this what you will: when Consultores 21 asks voters outright whether they will vote for Chávez or Capriles, 7.7% say they’re undecided. When, instead, they give voters a mock ballot and some privacy to fill it out, the number of undecideds falls to 4.8%, with nearly all of them going to Capriles.

It’s not on a scale to explain Datanalisis’s much larger number of undecideds, but it’s…provocative.

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  1. One quick comment. I think any poll that says Capriles has a voting intention of 40% or less looks already pretty suspicious to me: In 2010 we got 5,674,343 votes. In 2012 we should AT LEAST get that number. Now, if we assume 75% of the padron electoral (18.9 million) are going to vote that means it’s safe to say 40% of the popular vote is a lower limit

  2. I think this is extremely important.
    The statistics indicate a tangible majority support within the undecided group for Capriles. Consequently this is also a demonstration that a number of those who said they were going to vote for Chavez were indeed not being honest.
    It’s difficult to define the ‘untruthful’ factor however it could be as high as 2% based on the undecided percent. The significant thing about the untruthful bunch is what you give with one hand you take with the other.

    So, say approx 6% of the 7.7% votes for Capriles, approx. 2% therefore votes for Chavez.
    You then have 52/48 in favour of Capriles. Now add in the 2% untruthful bunch, those who said they will vote for Chavez when intention is otherwise, you end up with 54% Capriles and 46% Chaves. The difference could be as much as 10 % which is positive when looking at other polls, well the reputable ones anyway.

  3. I still remember Hinterenlaces in 2006, the fear factor, the supposed hidden vote, the two color pencil, and the 65-35 result against the maracuchean philosopher…

  4. Quico, I must admit that one I saw the slide I thought about the little exchange we had a few posts ago about the meaning of the undecided. Maybe Venezuelans are not Quebecers after all!


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