It’s a curious place to hold it since Trujillo is one of the most chavista states in the country.
But look deep down and you understand why. In Trujillo, the PSUV beat the opposition 63-36 in the Legislative elections of 2010. In spite of that, both camps were tied in that same election in the city of Valera. It was in the rural areas of the state where we got our asses handed to us.
That’s why we see Capriles visting, and re-visiting, places like Barinas, Cumaná, and Valera. He is making sure that places where we use to tie…actually flip to our side.
In fact, Valera is a pretty good bellweather. In 2006, Chávez beat Rosales in Valera 63-36, exactly what his margin was like nationwide. In the 2007 Referendum, the No barely lost to the Si in Valera, 50.09-49.9 (In the 2009 Referendum, the Si beat the No in Valera by 55 to 45, slightly larger a lead than the nationwide margin).
I’m thinking that the voting in Valera next Sunday is going to look an awful lot like the nationwide vote.
HT: Guido David.Caracas Chronicles is 100% reader-supported. Support independent Venezuelan journalism by making a donation.