The truth about exit polls

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    … is that they’re crap. In fact, I don’t even know how many there are out there. They lead to misleading results, and they screw up expectations all the time.

    Don’t waste your time with them, even if they contain good news.

    1 COMMENT

    1. I heard from someone close to the campaigns that the exit poll on the Huffington Post came from the government.

      I just hope they are not trying to provide themselves cover to steal the election

      • I have had 11 since lunch. Is that ok?
        I wouldn’t want to do anything that might break the rules. (George in Seinfeld)

        I’ve seen so many exit poll numbers in the last 3 hours that my head is spinning.
        Or is that the beer?

        • Actually I’ve switched to vodka & orange.
          It’s not the same though.
          Due to price controls we haven’t seen 100% OJ for about 8 months.
          We have to use Naranjada which is 60% OJ & 40% water with about 2 lbs. of sugar.

    2. In fact, I’ve been conducting my own exit poll today based on all the “colorful finger” pictures and exuberant “I voted for Capriles” comments on my Facebook/Twitter/Gmail feeds.

      Now I don’t want to read TOO much into my results — and there may be some margin for error — but I gotta say, it’s pretty much looking like an opposition landslide.

      I think I’ll pour myself another 1796 to celebrate…

      • Capriles has dominated social media though, he’s been getting 15k new ‘likes’ on Facebook every day for the past two weeks. At some points he gets 1k an hour. But, that’s why I also think Capriles has momentum and people want him. I’m just saying it’s been like this for awhile.

    3. Reporte Confidencial ‏@RConfidencial
      Anoten……EXTRA A la salida del Concierto : Caramelo de Cianuros l Max 56.65% min 52.49% l Hany Kauam Max 47.51 l Min 43.35%

    4. Well I must say the “landslide” would seem to be doing a great deal better than your sense of irony Larissa – http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/irony

      Let me simplify things a bit for you:

      Step 1. Judging the outcome ex ante based on the limited, subjective and inherently unrepresentative data from my own facebook and twitter feeds is obviously a silly thing to do.

      Step 2. Yet by (rather sneakily) referring to this as an “an exit poll” I am indirectly implying that exit polls in general are an attempt at judging the outcome ex ante based on the limited, subjective and inherently unrepresentative data and, by extension, an obviously silly thing to do.

      Step 3. So… exit polls = attempt at judging the outcome ex ante based on the limited, subjective and inherently unrepresentative data = obviously silly thing to do. You with me so far?

      Step 4. Now, taken in the context of Juan’s original post (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/context?s=t ) linking the Diario article predicting a Capriles victory based on “Exit Polls”, and warning people no to take them too seriously (reread step 3)… then where would that leave us?

      So I would say my “landslide” is actually doing quite a bit better than the rest of me right now…

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