Everything changes, everything stays the same


Setty thinks the oil industry is not going anywhere regardless of what happens with the Cuban Patient. He makes a whole lot of sense.

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  1. Hmmmm…I think Setty phoned this one in.

    The real problem is http://settysoutham.wordpress.com/2011/07/26/pdvsa-cuts-2015-production-goals/ – year after year chavismo has failed to cut the deals it needs to bring in the investment it would take to hit its own production goals. Not somebody else’s: Chávez’s.

    As time passes and the fiscal horizon darkens, the Venezuelan state’s negotiating position weakens vis-à-vis those with the financing muscle and expertise to stop the rot in terms of missed production targets. The pressure to sign deals on increasingly favorable terms to foreign partners is going to go from ‘immense’ in 2013 to ‘overwhelming’ in 2014. That’s the dynamic we need to keep our eyes on.

  2. Thanks for the comments and all the traffic today. Francisco, you’re right about all of that. But I suspect the forces of inertia are going to be immense, too. So sure, there will be changes, little by little. But the commenter at my site who said the 20,000 fired workers of the Paro Petrolero should be brought back? Sorry dude. Nothing like that is on the horizon.


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